BakerTech 240308

BakerTech managed to close on the day's high and broke the downtrend resistance (upp red). However, volume is relatively thin.

(trades for 20 mar not indicated)

We would need to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.243 (low pink), 0.240 (22 jan, 19 mar lows)
Resistance @ 0.2575 (low light blue), 0.2672 (upp light blue), 0.2737 (mid pink)

Good Luck !!

Ferro China Research Report

by DBS Vickers Securities (19 March)

We paid a visit to Ferro China's production plant in Changsu, Jiangu recently and had the opportunity to meet up with the group's management.

Ferro China's third reverse cold rolling mill is on track for commercial production by 2Q2008, while two more galvanising lines are expected to be up by 2H2008 year.

After speaking to management, we believe Ferro China's sales growth in 2008 is likely to be driven mostly by higher volume sales of cold-rolled steel coils, which are in short supply and commanding attractive margins.

In summary, we have cut our FY2008 earnings estimate by 2% and raised our Fy2009 earnings estimate by 3%.

At 4.1x FY2008 PER and 3.2x FY2009 PER, valuations are undemanding.

- Research Report by DBS Vickers Securities (19 March)

Cosco Research Report

by Citigroup Research (March 17)

Amid concerns over a global slowdown, we believe Cosco is better positioned than its sector peers because of its (i) strong balance sheet, cash flow - Cosco exited 2007 with $900 million net cash and we project net cash will reach $1.35 billion and -9% FCF yield this year;

(ii) potential replacement of parent's large fleet of ageing ships can support and fill Cosco yards during a downturn. We are cutting our earning estimates by 9% to 30% over 2008 to 2010E to reflect lower margin assumptions and more conservative orderbook wins.

We introduce 2010 estimates, and assume 29% EPS CAGR over 2007 to 2010E.

Our target price is cut from $8.30 to $4.50 based on sum-of-parts valuation.

- Research Report by Citigroup (17 March)

China Sky Research Report

by DBS Vickers Securities (March 17)

Fears of rising oil prices and a slowdown in US demand and possibly rotational interest in new IPO, Li Heng (also a high-end nylon producer), have sent China Sky's share prices down 30%.

Despite a healthy operating environment and on-schedule expansion plans, China Sky is now trading at 5.1x FY2008F diluted PER, below its historical PER band of 5.4x to 18.4x.

Owing to the unfavourable change in investors' risk appetite and concerns about the competitive landscape beyond 2009 spurred by Li Heng's aggressive expansion plan, we now derive our valuation based on FY2008F earnings instead of blended FY2008/08 earnings.

We also reduced our PER multiple to 9x (which is below its average historical PER of 10.8x) to factor in the higher risk premium.

Consequently, our target price is reduced to $1.70.

- Research Report by DBS Vickers Securities (17 March)

Olam 190308

Olam today hit a 17 month low of 1.76 (-14.56%), breaking the long term downtrend support (mid pink, low red --).



Volume traded was more than doubled yesterday's.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.76 (upp red), 1.58 (low pink), 1.507 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.89 (low red --), 2.02 (mid pink), 2.089 (upp red --)

Good Luck !!

China Aviation Oil 190308

Not only did the rebound for China Aviation Oil not materialise, it went on to create new lows after 10 mar.



China Aviation Oil can't seem to be able to get out of the downtrend channel (red). There is a possibility that China Aviation Oil would first have to hit 1.15 (low red meeting low pink) before there's any chance of a rebound.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.213 (upp red), 1.18 (low red), 1.16 (low pink)
Resistance @ 1.324 (low red --), 1.403 (mid pink), 1.415 (upp red --)

Good Luck !!

China Sky 190308

China Sky indeed broke the downtrend support (mid pink --) on 17 mar, and went on to test (and broke) the 0.800 level on 18 mar, which is right on the long term downtrend support (low pink), before recovering to close above the support (mid pink --) today.



From the chart, you can see that China Sky is now trading within many downtrend channels (red --, pink -- and pink). If China Sky breaks the long term downtrend support (low pink), we might see it test the 0.600 level (low red --).

For tomorrow:

Support @ 0.8322 (upp pink --), 0.738 (low pink), 0.73 (low pink --), 0.6874 (low red --)
Resistance @ 0.9017 (upp red --), 0.941 (low red), 1.034 (upp pink)

Good Luck !!

China HongX 190308

China Hongx almost broke the downtrend support on 17 and 18 jan. Although it opened higher today, volume remained almost the same as yesterday's, and China Hongx also failed to break the downtrend resistance (upp pink --).



China Hongx is still trading within the downtrend channel (pink --). And if it continues to do so, we might see it testing the 0.400 level soon.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.430 (low green), 0.4074 (red), 0.3643 (low pink --)
Resistance @ 0.445 (mid pink --), 0.4862 (upp pink --), 0.5387 (upp green)

Good Luck !!

BakerTech 190308

The last time BakerTech hit 0.240 was 22 jan. Afterwhich, it traded sideways for awhile before breaking the 0.280 resistance (green --) by gapping up on 2 feb.



Would we see BakerTech going on another similar run this time? The situation then is slightly different to now. Previously, BakerTech fell from 0.390 to 0.240 in a matter of 10 trading days.

This time, the fall was less dramatic. And BakerTech has also broken the uptrend support (low light blue). So it may take a while for BakerTech to recover and test the 0.280 resistance (green --). Provided it doesn't break the downtrend support (low pink).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.230 (low pink, low red)
Resistance @ 0.252 (upp red), 0.2572 (low light blue), 0.2666 (upp light blue)

Good Luck !!

Cosco 170308

Cosco today create a new low by touching the down trend support (low red --) It is now trading within a few downtrend channels.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

If Cosco continues to trade within these channels, 2.50 is not impossible.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 2.827 (low red --), 2.628 (low pink), 2.53 (low red)
Resistance @ 2.93 (mid pink), 3.243 (mid red), 3.26 (upp pink)

Good Luck !!

STX Pan Ocean 170308

As usual, STX Pan Ocean's dramatic rise during early feb, was met with an equally dramatic fall over the last few days.

I've done some housekeeping and redrawn the trendlines. STX Pan Ocean does not have many support left. If it breaks the long term uptrend support (low blue), we might see STX Pan Ocean testing the 2.09 low of 22 jan.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

For tomorrow :

Support @ 2.356 (low green), 2.334 (low red), 2.25 (low blue)
Resistance @ 2.571 (upp green), 2.615 (upp blue), 2.677 (mid red)

Good Luck !!

Uni Asia Finance 170308

There was indeed a reversal, but it was short-lived. Uni Asia Finance could not sustain the momentum and broke the uptrend support (low green) on 13 mar.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

However, Uni Asia Finance is still trading within the downtrend channel (pink --). And if it continues to do so, we might see Uni Asia Finance testing the 0.600 level soon.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.6228 (mid pink), 0.6018 (low pink), 0.578 (low pink --), 0.550 (red)
Resistance @ 0.6845 (low green), 0.6944 (upp pink --), 0.7252 (upp green), 0.760 (blue)

Good Luck !!

Yangzijiang 170308

Yangzijiang first broke the downtrend support (low pink) on 13 mar. Today it opened below the support (low pink) and only managed to touch it, before closing below it.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

Yangzijiang is now trading within the downtrend channel (red --). If it breaks the channel's support (low red --), we might see it testing the 0.700 level.

As it is now, there is a higher chance now that Yangzijiang will test the 0.800 level very soon.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.800, 0.760 (low red --), 0.702 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.850 (upp red --), 0.857 (low pink), 0.870 (upp red), 0.970 (upp pink)

Good Luck !!

STX Pan Ocean 140308

Just when we thought STX Pan Ocean's double-top formation was going to be negated, the next day saw it breaking the 2.82 psychological support (blue --), although it managed to close above it.

Then on 13 mar, STX Pan Ocean closed below the psychological and uptrend support (blue). It is now trading within the downtrend channel (pink).

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

For monday :

Support @ 2.517 (low pink), 2.44 (low green), 2.42 (low red)
Resistance @ 2.82 (blue --), 2.86 (low blue), 2.88 (upp pink), 3.00 (upp blue)

Good Luck !!

SPC 140308

SPC broke the 6.66 support level on 13 mar. It closed right on the downtrend support (upp red) on 14 mar.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

I've adjusted the uptrend support (low blue --) to match the lows on 24 jan and 14 mar. If SPC trades within this uptrend channel, we might see it test the 7.50 level again.

However, if SPC breaks this support (upp red), it might trade within the downtrend channel (red) and test the 6.00 level.

For monday :

Support @ 6.57 (upp red), 6.35 (mid red), 6.02 (low red)
Resistance @ 6.66 (low blue --, light blue ...), 7.11 (upp blue --)

Good Luck !!

SGX 140308

There wasn't any follow through after SGX broke the 2 long term downtrend resistances (red, upp red --) on 12 mar.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

Subsequently, SGX traded below these resistances, and even broke the downtrend support (low pink) on 13 mar. SGX even opened and closed just below the downtrend support (low pink) today. Only positive note was it seems to have found some support about the 6.62 - 6.68 region.

If SGX continues to trade within this downtrend channel (red --), it might test the 6.00 level soon.

For monday :

Support @ 6.796 (low pink), 6.247 (mid red --), 5.795 (low red --)
Resistance @ 6.91 (red), 7.05 (upp red --), 7.716 (upp pink)

Good Luck !!

Semb Marine 140308

Sembcorp Marine managed to close above the neckline as well as the uptrend support (low green), although during the day, it did break a few supports.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

We may see Sembcrop Marine trading sideways as the market tries to find its footing.

For monday :

Support @ 3.44 (low green), 3.36 (upp blue), 3.32 (upp red), 3.272 (low blue), 3.20 (mid red)
Resistance @ 3.527 (low light blue), 3.60 (upp green), 3.697 (upp light blue)

Good Luck !!

Olam 140308

Although Olam managed to break above the long term downtrend support (pink) on 12 mar, the next day saw it falling below the support (pink) and into the downtrend channel (red --).

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

Olam has already tested the 2.00 level twice - on 10 and 13 mar. We might see Olam going sideways as the market tried to find its direction.

For monday :

Support @ 1.945 (low red --)
Resistance @ 2.133 (upp red --), 2.214 (pink), 2.294 (low red)

Good Luck !!

Lian Beng 140308

After breaking the long term downtrend support (low red) on 10 mar, Lian Beng tested tried to break above it on 12 mar but was unsuccessful.

(Please note that the volume is wrongly indicated)

The next day, Lian Beng broke the down trend support (mid pink --) again and is now trading within this channel (pink --).

If Lian Beng continues to trade within this channel (pink --), we might see it testing the 0.355 low on 21 aug, or even the 0.300 low on 17 aug.

For monday :

Support @ 0.355 (21 aug low), 0.3466 (low pink --)
Resistance @ 0.386 (mid pink --), 0.415 (low red), 0.423 (upp pink --), 0.450 (low pink)

Good Luck !!

Ferro China 140308

Ferro China almost tested the 1 feb low of 1.01 on 10 mar when it hit a low of 1.03 and touching the long term uptrend support (green).

(Please note that the volume is indicated wrongly)

If Ferro China can maintain is uptrend momentum (light blue), we might see it testing the 1.30 level again.

For monday :

Support @ 1.10 (low light blue, mid pink), 1.22 (mid light blue, upp pink), 1.266 (low pink --)
Resistance @ 1.03 (green), 1.00 (low pink)

Good Luck !!