Indofood Agri 220409

Did you follow my analysis for Indofood Agri on 9 apr? If you had, you would probably have caught Indofood Agri as it surged past the 0.770 resistance (pink ...), and tested the 0.860 resistance (green ...) on 15/16 apr.

Indofood Agri today again broke the 0.860 neckline (green ...) with volume, testing the 0.895 resistance (blue --) briefly before settling right on the 0.860 neckline again.

We could see Indofood Agri trade sideways again, as it did on the previous 3 occassions before surging up. If Indofood Agri can continue to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see it test the 0.895 resistance (blue --), provided Indofood Agri also stays above the 0.860 support (green ...).

As you can see from the chart, the 0.875 could be the immediate resistance for Indofood Agri as it is where the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (mid blue).


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.860 (green ...), 0.835 (mid green), 0.830 (mid blue, low red), 0.815 (red ...), 0.795 (green --), 0.770 (pink --)

Resistance @ 0.875, 0.895 (blue --), 0.900 (upp red, upp green), 0.915 (upp blue), 0.925

Indofood Agri 090409

After breaking the 0.715 support (lightblue --) yesterday, Indofood Agri reversed and even broke the 0.740 resistance (pink --) with volume today. Most trades (146) were done at 0.760 (7,022 lots) with 2nd most trades (137) done at 0.745 (6,191 lots). Overall, there were more buy ups (21,409 lots) than sell downs (15,532 lots).

What this means is that we could be looking at 0.745 being the support and 0.760 being the resistance for Indofood Agri the time being.

If Indofood Agri can maintain trading within the uptrend channels (blue, green) and stay above the 0.740 support (pink --), there's a good chance we might see it test the 0.770 resistance (pink ...) again towards the end of the week when the uptrend support (mid blue) meets the 0.770 neckline (pink ...).

However, if the 0.740 support breaks, we could see Indofood Agri retreat back to the 0.715 support (lightblue --).


For monday :

Support @ 0.740 (pink --), 0.732 (mid green), 0.725 (mid blue), 0.715 (mid red, lightblue --), 0.685 (low red, red --)

Resistance @ 0.755 (upp blue), 0.770 (upp red, pink ...), 0.785 (upp green), 0.790 (green --), 0.815 (red ...)

Indofood Agri 200309

As mentioned in my analysis on 13 mar, the 0.575 support (red ...) for Indofood Agri seems to be holding for the time being. However, this support was also tested 3 times this week.

Is Indofood Agri building a base?

If you look at Indofood Agri during the mid feb period, it also appears to be building a base as it traded sideways, before going on a free fall. Will history repeat itself?

If Indofood Agri can hold on to at least the 0.565 support (green --) we could see it continue to trade sideways between the long term downtrend resistance (red) and the 0.565 support (green --).

Be cautious also as a Gravestone Doji was formed on 18 mar, which usually is a strong indication of an impending trend reversal. A break in these 2 support could see Indofood Agri testing at least the 0.545 support (pink --)


For monday :

Support @ 0.575 (red ...), 0.572 (low blue, upp green), 0.565 (low pink, green --), 0.545 (mid green, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.595 (red), 0.600 (upp pink), 0.605 (upp blue, green ...), 0.615 (blue --)

Indofood Agri 130309

What a run for Indofood Agri ever since hitting a low of 0.450 on 3 mar. However, I feel that Indofood Agri's great run has hit its peak as volume is drying up.

If you can read my analysis on 10 mar, I added a short term downtrend channel (pink) and Indofood Agri hit the short term downtrend resistance (upp pink) before closing just below it. This could also be an indication that the trend for Indofood Agri is turning.

Immediate support for Indofood Agri would be the 0.575 support (red ...). If Indofood Agri can hold onto this support, we could see it build a base and attempt to test the 0.605 resistance (green ...).

However, if Indofood Agri breaks the 0.575 support (red ...), I believe its drop would be as swift as it did in the 2nd half of feb.


For monday :

Support @ 0.575 (red ...), 0.5677 (mid pink, mid green), 0.565 (green --), 0.560 (mid blue), 0.548 (low red), 0.545 (pink --), 0.535 (lightblue --), 0.525 (low blue, red --), 0.520 (low pink), 0.505 (pink ...)

Resistance @ 0.595 (upp red, upp pink), 0.605 (upp blue, upp green, green ...), 0.615 (blue --), 0.640 (blue ...)

Indofood Agri 100309

Indofood Agri burst into life today with volume that was more than 4 times yesterday's. Buy ups outnumbered selldowns by about 2 to 1. Indofood Agri also broke the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) and the 0.525 neckline (red --).

I have included a short term downtrend channel (pink). As you can see Indofood Agri tested the 0.545 neckline (pink --) today, which was not far from where the downtrend resistance (mid pink) is.

If Indofood Agri manages to trade above the 0.525 neckline (red --), we could see it test the 0.565 neckline (green --) soon.


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.545 (pink --), 0.535 (upp green), 0.525 (low pink, red --), .511 (upp red), 0.507 (mid green), 0505 (pink ...), 0.495 (green ...)

Resistance @ 0.545 (pink --), 0.558 (mid pink), 0.565 (green --), 0.575 (red ...)

Indofood Agri 060309

Indofood Agri's fortunes took a dramatic twist within a few days. We were just talking about a possible trend reversal on 3 mar, and now Indofood Agri is trading below the 0.525 neckline (red --) again. Volume done today is not even half of yesterday's.

The 0.505 support (pink ...) again seems to be holding out quite well for the time being. We could be looking at Indofood Agri trading between the downtrend resistance (upp red) and uptrend support (mid green).

We could see some action next week as the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (mid green) at about the 0.495 neckline (green ...). If the 0.495 neckline breaks, we could see Indofood Agri make a swift visit to the 0.470 support (lightblue --).


For monday :

Support @ 0.505 (pink ...), 0.495 (mid green, green ...), 0.480 (mid red), 0.470 (lightblue --), 0.460 (blue ...), 0.455 (low green), 0.440 (low red)

Resistance @ 0.515 (upp red), 0.525 (upp green, red --), 0.545 (pink --), 0.555, 0.565 (green --)

Indofood Agri 030309

Indofood Agri opened low and closed high, almost engulfing yesterday. In candlestick, it's called Bullish Engulfing. Since Indofood Agri has been on the downtrend, this could signal an impending trend reversal.

In order to confirm the trend reversal, we would need a white candlestick tomorrow. Ideally, Indofood Agri gapping up and closing higher. This would give us another bullish pattern called the Three Outside Up, which is a stronger indicator of a trend reversal compared to the Bullish Engulfing.


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.495 (green ...), 0.490 (mid green), 0.470 (lightblue --), 0.460 (low red, blue ...), 0.450 (low green)

Resistance @ 0.505 (pink ...), 0.510 (upp green), 0.525 (red --), 0.535 (upp red), 0.545 (pink --), 0.565 (green --)

Indofood Agri 250209

Ever since breaking the 0.525 support (red --) on 20 feb, Indofood Agri has now tested the 0.505 support (pink ...) twice, barely trading within the uptrend support (low green).

As I've mentioned on 20 feb, the 0.505 support looks good for the time being. However, I do not know how long this support will hold. We could see some action soon, as the uptrend support catches up with the 0.505 support.

If the 0.505 support breaks, we could see Indofood Agri test the 0.495 support (green ...) first, then 0.485, which is the low on 23/24 dec, before Indofood Agri broke out and went on a surging run to 0.670.


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.505 (low green, pink ...), 0.495 (green ...) , 0.485 (mid red), 0.470 (lightblue --), 0.460 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 0.525 (mid green, red --), 0.535, 0.545 (pink --), 0.550 (upp green), 0.560 (upp red), 0.565 (green --)

Indofood Agri 200209

Indofoor Agri formed a double top on 7 jan and 10 feb. The neckline for this double top could be at 0.575 (red ...). What this means is that we could potentially see Indofood Agri a low of (0.670 - 0.570 = 0.10) 0.470 (lightblue --), which is where Indofood Agri broke out on 9 dec.

Indofood Agri broke the 0.575 neckline on 17 feb, and you can see it's fall was fast. Within 3 days, Indofood Agri hit the 0.525 support (red --). If this support breaks, the next support for Indofood Agri would be at 0.505 (pink ...) which is quite strong, based on the volume support bar.

However, if the 0.505 support breaks as well, I believe the fall would be swift and we would probably see Indofood Agri test the 0.470 (lightblue--) bottom within days.

Any rebound would probably be limited to the 0.560 level, which is where the uptrend support (low green) meets the downtrend resistance (upp red).


For monday :

Support @ 0.515, 0.505 (low red, pink ...), 0.495 (green ...), 0.470 (lightblue --)
Resistance @ 0.545 (pink --), 0.550 (low green), 0.565 (green --), 0.575 (red ...), 0.580 (upp red)

Indofood Agri 090209

After breaking through several resistances last friday, Indofood Agri closed just above the 0.610 support and 2nd uptrend support (mid green). Volume done today was less then half of last friday's.

If Indofood Agri can hold onto the 0.610 support, or better still, stay above the uptrend support (mid green), we could be looking at the 0.650 resistance as the next target.

However, if the 0.610 support breaks, the next support would most likely be at 0.595 (blue --).


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.615 (mid green), 0.610 (green ...), (blue --), 0.575 (red ...), 0.570 (low green), 0.565 (green --)
Resistance @ 0.620 (blue ...), 0.625 (pink ...), 0.630 (upp red), 0.640, 0.650(upp green)

Indofood Agri 190109

Indofood Agri just about stayed above the 0.565 support (green --) after testing it three times.

As you can see from the chart, the uptrend support (low green) meets the 0.575 neckline (red ...) sometime this week, so we might see some action soon.

If Indofood Agri breaks the uptrend support (low green), we might see it test the 0.545 support (pink --).


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.575 (red ...), 0.570 (low green), 0.565 (green --), 0.545 (pink --), 0.525 (low red, red --)
Resistance @ 0.595 (upp green, blue --), 0.605 (upp red), 0.610 (green ...)

Indofood Agri 130109

Indofood Agri broke quite a few supports today with about 3 times the volume compared to yesterday. The selling down volume was double that of buying up. Indofood Agri closed right on the 0.575 support (red ...).

If Indofood Agri breaks the 0.575 support, we could see it weaken further, probably to the 0.550 level, where the uptrend support (low green) meets the downtrend support (low red).

Any upside would probably be limited to the 0.595 resistance (blue --).


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.575 (upp green, red ...), 0.565 (green --), 0.550 (low green, low red), 0.545 (pink --), 0.525 (red --), 0.505 (blue ...)

Resistance @ 0.595 (low blue, blue --), 0.610 (green ...), 0.625 (upp blue, pink ...), 0.635 (upp red)

Indofood Agri 070109

After breaking the 0.575 resistance (red ...) on 5 jan, Indofood Agri tested the 0.640 resistance (green --) 3 times. However, Indofood Agri couldn't break it convincingly and came close to testing the 0.610 support (green ...) today.

We could see the 0.660 level (upp red cuting upp blue) being the resistance for Indofood Agri for the time being. If Indofood Agri manages to break that resistance, we could see it testing the 0.715 - 0.720 level, which is the low from which Indofood Agri broke out from on 19 sep.

However, if Indofood Agri breaks the 0.610 support, we could see it revisiting the 0.575 support (red ...)


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.610 (green ...), 0.605 (mid blue), 0.595 (blue --), 0.575 (red ...), 0.545 (low red, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.640 (green --), 0.655 (pink, upp blue), 0.663 (upp red), 0.715-0.720

Indofood Agri 020109

After dipping to a low of 0.485 before christmas, Indofood Agri recovered its losses and managed to break the 0.525 resistance (red --) on 30 dec. Indofood Agri opened the new year by breaking the 0.545 resistance (pink --) and almost testing the 0.575 resistance (red ...). However, volume hasn't exactly been alot - 17.6m done on 2 jan.

If Indofood Agri fails to break the 0.575 resistance (red ...), we could see it forming a double-top, and the retracement could be back to the 0.490 support (pink ...).

However, if Indofood Agri manages to hold above the 0.545 neckline (pink --), any break in the 0.575 resistance could see Indofood Agri testing the 0.610 resistance (green ...).


For monday :

Support @ 0.560 (mid blue), 0.555 (pink), 0.545 (pink --), 0.525 (red --), 0.515 (low blue), 0.505 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 0.565 (upp red), 0.575 (red ...), 0.590 (upp blue), 0.595 (blue --), 0.610 (green ...)

Indofood Agri 231208

Another counter that failed to break out of its double-bottom neckline. Indofood Agri traded more or less sideways after failing to break the 0.575 neckline (red ...) on 11 dec. Indofood Agri also finally broke the 0.505 support (blue ...) and uptrend support (low blue), and closed right on the 0.490 support (pink ...).

If Indofood Agri fails to hold onto its 0.490 support, we could see it weaken further to test the 0.470 support (green --). And if that support also breaks, we could see Indofood Agri retreating all the way to the 0.445 support (blue --).

Any rebound would be limited to the 0.525 resistance (red --) as we can see from the chart that the short-term (upp red) and long term (upp pink) downtrend resistances meet there.


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.490 (upp pink, pink ...), 0.470 (green --), 0.460 (green ...), 0.450 (low red), 0.445 (blue --), 0.420 (pink --)

Resistance @ 0.505 (upp red, blue ...), 0.515 (low blue), 0.525 (red --), 0.535 (upp blue), 0.545

Indofood Agri 091208

Indofood Agri did not have the chance to test the 0.470 resistance (green --) today. That's because it gapped up on opening and never looked back, testing the 0.505 resistance (blue ...) before closing above the 0.490 support (pink ...) and uptrend support (mid blue).

Volume done today was also quite high, almost the same level as 1 dec. Most of it was done at 0.495, with buying up and selling down volumes almost equal.

As there still quite a few more necklines to break, it is still early to say if Indofood Agri has completed the double bottom formation. Two immediate necklines lie in wait at 0.525 (red --) and 0.540 (pink --).


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.490 (pink ...), 0.485 (upp pink, mid blue), 0.470 (green --), 0.460 (low blue, green ...), 0.445 (blue --), 0.430 (red ...)

Resistance @ 0.495 (upp red), 0.505 (blue ...), 0.525 (upp blue, red --), 0.540 (pink --)

Indofood Agri 051208

Although Indofood Agri managed to close above yesterday's closing price of 0.445, it also tested the uptrend support (low blue), and nearly tested the 0.430 support (red...). Volume down was less than half of yesterday's too.

As you can see from the chart, the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at 0.455, which incidentally was where Indofood Agri closed on 17 nov before tumbling to a low of 0.385 on 20 and 21 nov.

If Indofood Agri doesn't break the 0.455 level soon, we could see history repeating itself, with Indofood Agri first testing the 0.430 support (red ...).

Any break above the 0.455 level could see Indofood Agri testing the 0.470 resistance (green --) for the fourth time.

Watch the volume too.


For tuesday :

Support @ 0.455 (upp red, low blue), 0.445 (blue --), 0.430 (pink, red ...), 0.420 (pink --), 0.413 (low red), 0.410 (red --)
Resistance @ 0.455 (upp red, low blue), 0460 (green ...), 0.470 (green --), 0.490 (upp blue, pink ...)

Indofood Agri 041208

Indofood Agri failed to break the 0.470 resistance (green --) after testing for the third time today. Indofood Agri even closed at its opening price, forming a Gravestone Doji.

Since Indofood Agri has been on the uptrend since 26 nov, we could see some pulling back if it fails to hold onto its 0.445 support (blue --).


For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.445 (low blue, blue --), 0.430 (low red, red ...), 0.420 (pink --), 0.410 (red --)
Resistance @ 0.460 (upp pink, green ...), 0.465 (upp red), 0.470 (green --), 0.480 (upp blue)

Commodities Sector Research Report

by OCBC INVESTMENT RESEARCH (3 Dec)

COMMODITIES have gone through a roller-coaster ride in 2008 and are likely to fall victim to further volatility in 2009 along with the broad market. 2009 presents a challenging macro outlook. Moving into next year, we believe that several macro factors could continue to weigh on the sector's outlook.

These include the shaky global macroeconomic outlook, softening demand from manufacturers and consumers, a prolonged credit drought and falling commodities prices.

While the near-term outlook is likely to remain muted, coordinated government policies could help to stabilise the overall climate in the medium term. For instance, China has recently announced a four trillion yuan (S$888 billion) stimulus package and an interest rate cut to boost the cooling economy. Large-scale spending such as these will help to bolster the demand for commodities such as steel and energy, albeit in the further future.

Commodities have been proven to outperform the stock market in times of crisis. Nevertheless, as demand for commodities is a function of the global economy, we expect the sentiment for these stocks to recover only when macroeconomic pessimism fades. As such, we are NEUTRAL on the sector.

At current valuations, the risk-reward profile of some stocks has grown attractive for long-term investors who are prepared to ride out the volatility.

-Research Report by OCBC INVESTMENT RESEARCH (3 Dec)

Indofood Agri 281108

Is Indofood Agri trying to form a triple bottom? (1st bottom was on 18 sep) Indofood Agri recovered from a low of 0.390 on 26 nov, to test the 0.470 neckline (green --) today. It remains to be seen if Indofood Agri can successfully break this neckline this week.

If not, we could be looking at Indofood Agri trading between the 0.470 neckline (green --) and 0.420 support (pink --).


For monday :

Support @ 0.455 (upp pink, upp red), 0.435 (low blue), 0.420 (pink --), 0.410 (red --), 0.395 (pink ...), 0.390 (mid red)

Resistance @ 0.470 (green --), 0.495 (upp blue), 0.505 (blue ...), 0.535 (green ...), 0.575 (red ...)