Indofood Agri 020908

Indofood Agri's fate has taken a turn for the worse and has now broken the uptrend support (low blue) today, so we could be looking at 0.900 as being the next support (23 aug 07 low).

After hitting the 1.27 resistance on 22 aug, Indofood Agri softened, breaking the uptrend support (mid blue) and testing the 1st downtrend support (mid pink) on 26 aug.

Indofood Agri is still currently trading within the downtrend channel (pink). It is also trading below the long term downtrend support (low red).



For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.00, 0.905 (low pink), 0.900 (23 aug 07 low)
Resistance @ 1.05 (low blue, upp pink), 1.16 (mid blue), 1.22 (upp pblue)

Ferro China 290808

After breaking the 0.985 support (blue --) on 25 aug, we saw Ferro China almost testing the long term downtrend support (low pink). We did see FerroChina breaking the support the following day (26 aug) but it seems Ferro China found some support at the 0.890 level (lightblue ...).

We could be looking at FerroChina attempting to consolidate around the 0.890 - 0.900 levels next week, provided it doesn't break the 0.890 support (lightblue ...).

If the 0.890 support breaks, we could see Ferro China testing the 0.800 level.



For monday :

Support @ 0.890 (lightblue ...), 0.885 (upp red), 0.875 (low pink), 0.820 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.915 (green --), 0.930 (lightblue --), 0.945 (mid pink), 0.985 (blue --)

Cosco 290808

We did indeed see some action for Cosco toward the end of the week when Cosco broke the long term downtrend resistance (low pink) and 2.27 resistance (red ...). Cosco closed right on the downtrend resistance (mid red).

Having said that, we have seen Cosco recovered almost 17% of its value since its low of 1.97 on 19 aug. Moreover, we saw Cosco hitting the resistance (mid red) today.

So we might see Cosco trading sideways next week, supported by the uptrend support (mid blue). I see the upside at most will be capped by the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink).

If Cosco can maintain trading within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see it attempting to break the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) towards the end of next week.



For monday :

Support @ 2.287 (mid red), 2.27 (red ...), 2.26 (upp blue), 2.16 (mid blue), 2.154 (low pink), 2.12 (low red), 2.09 (blue --), 2.06 (low blue)

Resistance @ 2.355 (mid pink), 2.44 (blue ...), 2.69 (upp pink)

China HongX 290808

China Hongxing did reverse its downtrend after the Dragonfly Doji on 26 aug, recovered a little to break the 0.375 resistance (lightblue ...) and closed right on the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid grey) today.

However, given the recent market sentiments, it remains to be seen if China Hongxing can maintain this uptrend momentum. If China Hongxing can open at 0.375 or above (mid grey, light blue ...) on monday, and stay above the 0.375 level, the chances of maintaining this uptrend momentum would be good.

If China Hongxing opens below the 0.375 level, or breaks the uptrend support (low blue), we could see it revisiting the 0.355 support (pink ...).



For monday :

Support @ 0.380 (mid blue), 0.375 (mid grey, light blue ...), 0.365 (low blue), 0.355 (pink ...)
Resistance @ 0.400 (upp blue), 0.405 (lightblue --), 0.410 (upp grey), 0.425 (red ...)

BakerTech 290808

After almost testing the long term downtrend support (low red) on 26 aug, Bakertech seems to have found temporary support at the 0.175 level. Baker Tech also traded above the downtrend resistance (upp pink) today.

However, volume is still quite low so we could still see BakerTech trading sideways. If Baker Tech can continue to trade above the uptrend support (blue) next week, we could see some action towards the end of the week when the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid red) meets the uptrend support (blue).

Short-term resistance based on volume distribution looks to be around the 0.190 level (red ...).



For monday :

Support @ 0.175 (blue), 0.167 (upp pink), 0.160 (pink --), 0.1585 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.190 (red ...), 0.192 (mid red)

Olam Research Report

by CIMB-GK (26 Aug)

We see increasing execution risks as the company expands into new and adjacent products, and new countries. Investing in upstream and downstream assets would also entail higher risks than operating an asset-light pure supply chain business.

The company needs capital to fund greater trade volumes, and acquistions and investments. The current yield of 13.7% for its debt implies a higher required rate of return on acquisitions/investments, and reduces its investment options available.

Management had delivered a 34% net profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the past five years. We are cutting our FY2009-10 revenue estimates by 3% to 4%, and EPS estimates by 7% to 8% to account for increased volatility in commodity markets, which could lead to slimmer premiums and/or volumes.

Target price lowered to 16x CY2009 PER, at the low end of its historical trading band, from 27x CY09 PER.

-Research Report by CIMB-GK (26 Aug)

China HongX 260808

China Hongxing today tested the 1st long term downtrend support (low grey) before closing right on the 0.355 support (pink ...), forming a Dragonfly Doji.

Since China Hongxing has been on a downtrend prior to this Dragonfly Doji, technically, the Dragonfly Doji should indicate a reversal. Of course, the reversal indication would require a confirmation tomorrow.

We would need to see China Hongxing ideally gapping up and stay above at the least the 0.355 support (pink ...).

On the other hand, if China Hongxing breaks the 1st long term downtrend support (low grey), we could see it test the 0.320 level as indicated by the 2nd long term downtrend support (upp red).



For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.355 (pink ...), 0.342 (low grey), 0.320 (upp red), 0.300 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.375 (lightblue ...), 0.388 (mid grey), 0.405 (lightblue --)

China HongX Research Report

by DBS Vickers Securities (25 Aug)

All of China Hongxing's peers such as Li Ning, Anta and Dongxiang have seen significant valuation de-rating over the last six months, along with the declining Shanghai market.

China Hongxing itself has not been spared, and has seen its share price drop by over 40% in the last three months, despite delivering good results.

We believe current valuations for China Hongxing are at an attractive level for investors to accumulate for a leading China domestic sports. At less than 10x FY2008 and just over 7x FY2009 PER, China Hongxing is trading at less than half that of Li Ning, currently at about 25x FY2008 and 19x FY2009 earnings.

Maintaining our 20% discount to HK-listed peers, which are currently trading at an average of 13.5x FY2009 earnings, we adjust our target to 11x FY2009 PER for China Hongxing.

-Research Report by DBS Vickers Securities (25 Aug)

Semb Marine 220808

Sembcorp Marine traded more or less sideways for the last 2 weeks. Today, it broke the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink), downtrend resistance (mid red), and also the 3.86 resistance (green ...), closing just above the uptrend resistance (upp blue).

Sembcorp Marine also came very close to testing the 3.94 resistance (pink --). Whether Sembcorp Marine can break this resistance would depend very much if it can continue to trade at least above the 3.86 support (green ...).

If Sembcorp Marine manages to stay above the 3.86 support, we may be looking at some action next week, when the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend resistance (upp blue) at around 3.93, just below the 3.94 resistance (pink --).

Otherwise, we could be looking at Sembcorp Marine trading between the 3.86 resistance (if Sembcorp Marine trades below it) and 3.75 support (red ...).



For monday :

Support @ 3.90 (upp blue), 3.86 (green ...), 3.83 (mid pink), 3.82 (mid red), 3.75 (red ...), 3.72 (low red), 3.70 (low blue)

Resistance @ 3.94 (pink --), 3.99 (upp red), 4.00 (blue ...), 4.05, 4.12 (green --)

Olam 220808

20 aug was quite an important day for Olam. It was on this day that Olam broke several support trendlines with high volume (16m). Over the next few days, we saw Olam weakening further.

Olam also tested the long term downtrend support (low pink) today. If Olam breaks this support, we could see it testing the downtrend support (low red) and eventually hit the 1.80 level.



For monday :

Support @ 1.88 (low pink, green), 1.837 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.96 (mid red), 2.04 (mid pink, pink ...), 2.09 (red --), 2.143 (upp red), 2.16 (green --)

Indofood Agri 220808

Indofood Agri softened before it could hit the 1.40 level. It managed to find support around the 1.15 - 1.16 level, which it hit on 13 aug. Indofood Agri broke the downtrend resistance (upp pink) today.

As discussed previously, we would need Indofood Agri to break the 1.42 resistance (pink --) before we can confirm it has formed a double-bottom.

For next week, we may see Indofood Agri trading between the uptrend support (low blue) and uptrend resistance (upp blue) as it tries to form a base, with 1.27 (green ...) looking to be the short-term resistance.



For monday :

Support @ 1.17 (upp pink), 1.15 (low blue), 1.017 (mid pink)
Resistance @ 1.27 (green ...), 1.30 (upp blue), 1.38 (low red), 1.42 (pink --)

Ferro China 220808

Ferro China tested the long term downtrend support (low pink) after we last discussed on 19 aug. Based on the volume distribution bars, the resistance looks to be around the 1.02 level (red --) and the support around the 0.985 level (blue --).

We could be looking at FerroChina trading between these 2 levels for next week. We may see some action next week when the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) meets the 1.02 resistance (red --).

Even if Ferro China manages to break the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid pink), its break would most likely to cap by the 1.07 resistance (green --).

There is also a possibility of FerroChina testing the long term downtrend support (low pink) if it breaks the 0.985 support (blue --).



For monday :

Support @ 0.985 (blue --), 0.960, 0.915 (low pink)
Resistance @ 1.02 (red --), 1.036 (mid pink), 1.07 (green --), 1.11 (pink ...), 1.14 (red ...)

Marine Sector Research Report

by DBS Group Research (20 Aug)

EARNINGS season in H1 2008 has reinforced positive outlook for rig builders, as well as oil and gas service and equipment suppliers. The rig builders, as well as oil and gas service and equipment players, have to-date delivered collectively stronger than expected H1 2008 report cards, underscoring their ability to ride on the positive sector outlook and protect profit margins despite raw material price concerns and weak US dollar.

Indeed, SGX-listed Singapore yards, and oil and gas service and equipment players' earnings have escaped the concerns earlier in the year unscathed; with new orders holding up, and ironically, US dollar rebounding and raw material price concerns easing recently. The exceptions were SGX-listed Chinese yards' earlier-than-expected dip in profit margins, which we had warned since mid-Q1 2008.

Undiscerning selldown in share prices in line with general market weakness has created buying opportunities. In our opinion, the earnings for most SGX-listed Singapore yards and oil and gas service and equipment suppliers have caught up with their share price valuations since early 2008, and the scenario has now reversed for the current depressed share prices to rebound, underpinned by the firm industry fundamentals and successful business execution.

Easing oil prices are positive for the durability of oil and gas industry up-cycle. We have repeatedly mentioned since last August that too high an oil price may result in demand destruction and harm the orderbook replenishment opportunities of stocks exposed to the booming offshore segment.

While the equity market sees the recent cooling off in crude oil price negatively, we are taking the view that the recent retracement in oil prices is reducing the risk of demand destruction and inflationary pressures. This is positive for more new order wins ahead.

This is also in line with rig builders' and oil and gas service and equipment suppliers' feedback that oil price at US$70 per barrel is a good level for their business outlook.

Sembcorp Marine is our top pick among the yards; with price catalyst coming from a possible record level of order wins this year and improving margins from successful execution of its record order book.

Swiber Holdings and Ezra Holding remain our top picks among the oil and gas service and equipment suppliers, as both companies have strong market positioning to ride on the increasing shift to production phases for offshore oil fields.

-Research Report by DBS Group Research (20 Aug)

Cosco 220808

Cosco has lost about a third of its value since the beginning of August. After testing the long term downtrend support (low pink) on 19 aug, Cosco recovered a little and seems to have found temporary support around the 2.10 level.

However, Cosco also seems to have some trouble breaking the downtrend resistance (low red). We could see Cosco trading sideways next week, with some action later in the week when both the downtrend resistances (low red, mid pink) meet.



For monday :

Support @ 2.08, 2.00, 1.91 (low pink)
Resistance @ 2.15 (low red), 2.195 (mid pink), 2.32 (mid red), 2.45 (blue ...)

China HongX 220808

After testing the 0.350 level thrice this week, China Hongxing managed to trade above the 0.355 support (pink ...). However, we still see China Hongxing unable to break the 0.375 resistance (lightblue ...).

We could be looking at China Hongxing trading sideways between the 0.375 resistance (lightblue ...) and 0.355 support (pink ...). We could also see some action towards the end of next week when the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid grey) meets the 0.375 resistance.



For monday :

Support @ 0.355 (low grey, pink ...), 0.330 (upp red), 0.310 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.375 (lightblue ...), 0.395 (mid grey), 0.405 (lightblue --), 0.425 (red ...)

BakerTech 220808

BakerTech recovered a little after the Doji formed on 19 aug. However, this rebound could be short-lived as we see Baker Tech still unable to break the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid red).

BakerTech also seems to have found some temporary support @ the 0.185 level. However, as mentioned previously on 19 aug, we could still see BakerTech testing the 0.160 support (pink --) if the 1st long term downtrend resistance (mid red) is not broken by next week.



For monday :

Support @ 0.185 (pink --), 0.164 (low red)
Resistance 0.1965 (mid red), 0.225 (pink ...), 0.235

Ferro China 190808

Ferro China today gapped down and broke the 1.07 support (green --). It closed at 1.01, which is the price it hit back on 1 feb, which Ferro China then went on a fierce and steep rebound.

Would it be the same this time ?

For that to happen, we would first need FerroChina to recover above the long term downtrend support (mid pink) and the 1.07 support (green --), and stay above these 2 supports.

Otherwise, we might see Ferro China gradually heading towards the 0.90 level as indicated by the long term downtrend support (low pink).



For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.01, 0.940 (low pink)
Resistance @ 1.04 (mid pink), 1.07 (green --), 1.11 (pink ...), 1.14 (red ...)

China HongX 190808

After failing to break the long term downtrend resistance (mid grey), China Hongxing has now weakend considerably and has now broken the 0.405 support (lightblue --). China Hongxing also closed below the long term downtrend support (low grey) today.

The last time China Hongxing was trading around the 0.350 level was way back in nov 2006. If China Hongxing doesn't rebound or recover above the downtrend support (low grey) soon, we could see it testing the next support (low red).



For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.350, 0.300, 0.2882 (red)
Resistance @ 0.375, 0.405 (lightblue --), 0.415 (mid grey), 0.425 (red ...)

BakerTech 190808

The reversal indicator did not materialise, instead, we saw Baker Tech breaking the 1st long term downtrend support (mid red) the day after (16 aug). Although BakerTech formed a Doji today, but I feel this would only be a slight reprieve.

We could be looking at Baker Tech heading eventually for the 0.160 support (pink --) before there's any significant rebound.



For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.180, 0.160 (pink --), 0.159 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.180, 0.200 (mid red), 0.215

Ferro China 150808

After our last discussion, Ferro China's 1.31 support (lightblue ...) broke at the beginning of the week, and FerroChina never came close to testing it again. Ferro China even broke the 1.26 support (green ...) and 1.22 support (blue --) today.

If Ferro China fails to hold onto the long term downtrend support (low pink), we could be looking at the 1.17 support (lightblue --) being tested next week.

However, if FerroChina manages to trade above the 1.22 support (blue --), we could see it trading sideways, with 1.26 being the resistance (green ...).



For monday :

Support @ 1.19 (low pink), 1.174 (low red, low blue), 1.17 (blue --), 1.14 (red ...)
Resistance @ 1.22 (blue --), 1.23 (mid red), 1.243 (mid blue), 1.255 (mid pink), 1.26 (green ...)