Olam 300508

Not only did Olam break the 2.97 resistance (blue --), we also saw Olam smashing the uptrend resistance (low green), and long term downtrend resistance (upp pink). Initially, there was a possibility of Olam weakening when it tested the downtrend support (upp red) and even the long term downtrend support (low pink).

However, things swung dramatically after Olam hit the long term downtrend resistance (low pink). Olam began to reverse and there were tremendous buying, pushing Olam up to the 3.18 neckline (blue ...), before closing just below the uptrend resistance (upp green).

From the volume distribution, we can see a huge bar around the 3.11 - 3.13 region (red ...). So if Olam were to open below this level (red ...) on monday, this block would become a mountainous block for Olam to overcome.

If this happens, we could see Olam softening to the 3.03 level, where the long term downtrend support (upp pink) is located. And if that breaks, the next support looks to be around the 2.97 level (blue --).

If Olam opens above the 3.13 level (red ...), and breaks the uptrend resistance (upp green), and the 3.18 neckline (blue ...), we might see Olam flying to the 3.30 resistance (green --)



For monday :

Support @ 3.13 (red ...), 3.057 (low green), 3.032 (upp pink), 2.97 (blue --), 2.935 (upp blue), 2.836 (upp red), 2.822 (low pink), 2.74 (red --)

Resistance @ 3.13 (red ...), 3.17 (upp green), 3.18 (blue ...), 3.30 (green --)

Good Luck !!

Semb Marine 300508

After opening right on the 4.60 resistance (red --) today, we saw selling pressure pushing Sembcorp Marine below the uptrend resistance (upp blue, upp light blue). Sembcorp Marine almost tested the 4.44 support (pink ...).

If Sembcorp Marine opens below the 4.60 resistance (red --) on monday, we could see it trading sideways, support by the uptrend support (mid light blue) and 4.44 support (pink ...).

For Sembcorp Marine to have a chance of breaking the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) and uptrend resistance (upp light blue), it would have to stay above the 4.60 neckline.



For monday :

Support @ 4.60 (upp blue, red --), 4.492 (mid light blue), 4.44 (pink ...), 4.378 (low light blue)
Resistance 4.64 (upp light blue, upp pink, pink --), 4.75 (red ...)

Good Luck !!

Sky Petrol 300508

Even after the Gravestone Doji on 22 may, there is still no sign of a trend reversal for Sky China Petrol. If we go back further to 14 mar, we can see another Gravestone Doji formed.

The trend for Sky China Petrol now is a little similar to the trend during the march period. So we could see more selling before Sky China Petrol reverses its down trend.

Looks like more patience is needed.



For monday :

Support @ 0.305 (low blue), 0.304 (mid red), 0.300
Resistance @ 0.315 (green --), 0.322 (upp red), 0.323 (upp blue), 0.330 (light blue --)

Good Luck !!

SPC 300508

SPC continued the downtrend when it started the week below the 7.20 support (blue --) and the long term downtrend support (mid red). We even saw SPC breaking the 6.95 support (light blue --) momentarily on 28 may, before closing 1 bid above it.

There was a small hope of a rebound on 29 may when it broke the uptrend resistance (upp blue) and tested the long term downtrend resistance (mid red). However, the selling resumed the next day, accompanied by an even bigger volume, finally pushing SPC below the 6.95 support (light blue --) and closing right on the uptrend support (low blue).

The next support for SPC, based on volume distribution, looks to be around the 6.80 level. Which is also near where the 2 downtrend support meet (low pink, low red). If the 6.80 support breaks, the next support, based on volume distribution, looks to be around the 6.70 level.



For monday :

Support @ 6.90, 6.81 (low red, low pink), 6.70
Resistance @ 6.92 (low blue), 6.95 (light blue --), 7.103 (upp blue), 7.128 (upp pink), 7.14 (mid red)

Good Luck !!

STX Pan Ocean 300508

STX Pan Ocean has now recovered to where it was a week ago, up from a low of 3.10 on 26 may. We also saw STX Pan Ocean breaking the downtrend resistance (mid red), and 3.47 resistance (red --) yesterday (29 may).

However, the rise this week was accompanied by lower volume each day. So it remains to be seen if STX Pan Ocean can maintain trading above the 3.47 level (red --). We might also see STX Pan Ocean trading sideways, between the 3.47 (red --) and 3.53 (pink --) levels.

If STX Pan Oceans breaks the downtrend support (mid red), we could see it testing the 3.36 support (blue ...) again.



For monday :

Support @ 3.47 (red --), 3.44 (low red), 3.427 (mid blue), 3.36 (blue ...), 3.26 (green ...)
Resistance @ 3.53 (pink --), 3.54 (mid red), 3.575 (upp blue), 3.65 (green --), 3.82 (upp red)

Good Luck !!

Uni Asia Finance 300508

It has been 2 months since I last talked about Uni Asia Finance. Let's take a look at what has happened to Uni Asia Finance since.

Ever since hitting a peak of 0.860 on 24 apr, it has been downtrend for Uni Asia Finance, culminating with the formation of a Gravestone Doji on 22 may. The next day saw Uni Asia Finance breaking the downtrend support (mid red).

Uni Asia Finance even broke the 0.720 support (pink --) on the beginning of the week (26 may). The next support for Uni Asia Finance, based on volume distribution, looks to be around the 0.675 - 0.680 region (blue --).

If Uni Asia Finance breaks this support (blue --), we might see it testing the long term downtrend support (low pink) at the 0.645 level.



For monday :

Support @ 0.675 (low blue, blue --), 0.670 (low red), 0.645 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.720 (mid red, pink --), 0.730 (upp pink), 0.745 (upp blue), 0.775 (red --)

Good Luck !!

Yangzijiang 300508

After breaking the 0.985 support (blue ...) on 28 may, the next support for Yangzijiang, based on volume distribution, would be around the 0.965 level (pink --).

The 1.15 neckline (pink ...) now seems far away. If Yangzijiang breaks the 0.965 support (pink --), we might even see it testing the 0.935 support (blue --).

We would probably see Yangzijiang trading sideways for the time being, between the 0.965 support (pink --), and 0.985 resistance (blue ...).



For monday :

Support @ 0.968 (low green), 0.965 (pink --), 0.935 (blue --), 0.932 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.980 (mid red), 0.985 (blue ...), 1.00 (upp green), 1.01 (red --), 1.02 (upp red)

Good Luck !!

Semb Marine 290508

After testing the 4.27 support (pink ...) at the beginning of the week, Sembcorp Marine resumed its uptrend momentum to test the 4.60 resistance (red --) and closing right on it.

If Sembcorp Marine opens above the uptrend support (mid light blue), we might see Sembcorp Marine breaking the 4.60 resistance (red --) for good.

If the uptrend momentum cannot be sustained, we might see Sembcorp Marine trading sideways betweem the 4.60 resistance and downtrend support (low pink).



For tomorrow :

Support @ 4.576 (low pink), 4.41, 4.35 (low light blue), 4.33 (mid blue), 4.27 (pink ...), 4.22 (low pink)

Resistance @ 4.60 (red --), 4.66 (upp blue), 4.80 (upp light blue)

Good Luck !!

Olam 290508

Although Olam opened just above the downtrend resistance (upp red), it was only after lunch that we saw Olam attempting to break the uptrend resistance (mid green).



We finally saw Olam breaking the uptrend resistance-turned-support (mid green) later in the afternoon, closing at the same price as the Doji formed on 16 may.

As the volume distribution bars suggests, we might see some resistance at 2.92, before Olam attempts to test the 2.97 resistance (blue --).

So, if Olam opens above the uptrend support (mid green), we might see it attempting to test the 2.97 resistance (blue --).

Otherwise, we could see Olam trading sideways, supported by the 2 downtrend supports (low red, low pink).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 2.91 (mid green), 2.85 (low red), 2.825 (low pink), 2.74 (red --), 2.73 (low red)
Resistance @ 2.92, 2.97 (blue --), 3.027 (upp green), 3.037 (upp pink)

Good Luck !!

Ferro China 280508

After testing the 1.55 support (blue --) at the beginning of the week, Ferro China finally broke it yesterday, which also saw it breaking below the 1.52 support (light blue --), before closing right on it.



Today, we saw FerroChina opening below the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink), again breaking below the 1.52 support before closing right on it.

If Ferro China breaks the 1.52 support (light blue --), we might see it testing the 1.44 support (red ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.52 (light blue --), 1.51 (low blue), 1.45 (low pink), 1.44 (red ...)
Resistance @ 1.538 (mid pink), 1.55 (blue --), 1.586 (low red), 1.617 (upp blue), 1.645 (upp pink)

Good Luck !!

Semb Marine Research Report

by Morgan Stanley (27 May)

Summary: We retain our 'overweight-V' ratin, while our mid-cycle multiple of 18 times 09 estimates is unchanged.

However, extended visibility of orders from Petrobras' recent announcement and high oil prices could push the stock near its peak trading range of 20 times.

What's New: Last week, we hosted the management of SembCorp Marine (SMM) to meet with US-based clients. We came out more confident about the business fundamentals and less apprehensive about industry concerns.

Investor feedback: Investors are very bullish on the macro theme of oil services industry, yet concerned by rig builder's limited operating leverage.

Positive takeaways from meetings include: Strong order momentum, order visibility from the Petrobras announcement, capacity expansion option, and revenue per unit increase due to input cost increase and margin improvement.

What's changed: Our EPS estimate revision is based on lower earnings from 30 per cent owned subsidiary Cosco and slower than expected order flow in H1 08 taking 2008 EPS lower by 9 per cent, but our 2009 estimates move up based on higher-than-expected margin from improved pricing power.

Risks do exist: SMM's stock price is up 27 per cent in the last three months, while the oil price is up 33 per cent in the same period. The stock is trading at 18 times forward earnings, above its long-term average. We believe lots of positive news has been factored in the price.

-Research Report by Morgan Stanley (27 May)

China HongX 290508

China Hongx continues to trade within the downtrend channel, making new lows everyday. China Hongx also tested the downtrend support (low pink) today, and also closed right on the 0.590 support (green --).



China Hongx's peaks are also getting lower each day. If China Hongx breaks the 0.590 support (green --), the next support, based on the volume distribution, looks to be around 0.570 to 0.580 level (blue --).

Intrestingly, the 0.580 level is also where the the long term downtrend support (low red) and downtrend support (low pink) meets. So we might see a rebound for China Hongx if it hits that level.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.590 (low blue, green --), 0.580 (low red, low pink, blue --), 0.570, 0.555
Resistance @ 0.606 (mid red), 0.610 (blue ...), 0.620 (upp pink), 0.626 (upp blue), 0.630 (green ...)

Good Luck !!

STX Pan Ocean 270508

What a start to the week for STX Pan Ocean. If you have been following STX Pan Ocean long enough, you would know that such roller-coaster rides are nothing unusual.

STX Pan Ocean started off the week by opening below the long term downtrend support (low red), going on to break the 3.26 support (green ...) and 3.18 support (blue --) before settling down for the day just above the 3.26 support.

Today, STX Pan Ocean completely reversed the downtrend. Opening just below the 3.26 support (green ...) before going on to break long term downtrend resistance (low red) and 3.36 resistance level (blue ...).

If STX Pan Oceans opens tomorrow above the 3.36 neckline (blue ...) we might see it going for another resistance breaking run up again.



For tomorrow :

Support @ 3.36 (blue ...), 3.30 (low red), 3.26 (green ...), 3.18 (blue --)
Resistance @ 3.406 (low blue), 3.455 (mid red), 3.47 (red --), 3.53 (pink --)

Good Luck !!

Olam 270508

After opening below the 2.70 level (and even below the 2.63 support - pink --) yesterday, we saw Olam testing the 2.60 support, before recovering to close the day on the 2.74 resistance level (red --), resuming trading within the uptrend channel (green).



Olam today opened above the 2.74 resistance level. Although it tested the 2.74 support (red --) and downtrend support (mid pink), Olam was still trading within the uptrend channel.

We then saw Olam testing the downtrend resistance (upp pink), before closing just below it.

If Olam can continue to trade within the uptrend channel (green), there's a good chance we might see it breaking out of the downtrend channel (pink, red).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 2.75 (low green), 2.74 (red --), 2.73 (mid pink), 2.66 (mid red)
Resistance @ 2.83 (upp pink), 2.86 (upp red), 2.92, 2.96 (blue --)

Good Luck !!

Cosco 270508

Cosco opened below the uptrend support (low blue) on monday, which meant it also broke the 3.36 support (green ...). Cosco and also tested the 3.26 support (blue ...), and long term downtrend support (pink). However, Cosco managed to recover a little to close above these 2 supports.



Trading for Cosco today was still restricted to betweent the 3.36 and 3.26 trendlines. During closing, Cosco managed to close above the 3.36 resistance (green ...). However, since there wasn't much volume, we may still see Cosco trading like it did today.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 3.26 (low red, blue ...), 3.20 (low pink)
Resistance 3.36 (green ...), 3.39 (mid red), 3.43 (low blue), 3.48 (blue --).

Yangzijiang 230508

After testing the 1.15 resistance level on 5 may, Yangzijiang didn't last long and came back down to earth on 9 may. Thereafter, it has been downhill for Yangzijiang ever since.



After trading sideways for about a week, Yangzijiang finally broke the 1.08 support (green --) on 21 may.

Today, further selling pressure pushed Yangzijiang down and it broke the uptrend support (low green), downtrend support (mid red) and also the 1.08 support (red --).

The next support based on volume distribution for Yangzijiang would be around the 0.985 level (blue ...).

For monday :

Support @ 0.985 (blue ...), 0.940 (low red, blue --)
Resistance @ 1.01 (mid red, red --), 1.02 (low green), 1.07 (upp red), 1.08 (green --)

Good Luck !!

STX Pan Ocean 230508

After opening right on the 3.47 support (red --), STX Pan Ocean started trading above 3.53 resistance (pink --), before softening to break below the 3.47 support and long term downtrend support (mid red).

STX Pan Ocean even went on to break, and closed the day below, the 3.36 support (blue ...).

What a week it has been for STX Pan Ocean ! Started the week testing the 4.00 level, and ended the week breaking the 3.36 support.

If you look at its trading patterns since 21 apr (or even earlier), you'd find that such ups and downs are not unusual for STX Pan Ocean.

If STX Pan Ocean breaks the long term downtrend support (low red), we could see it testing the 3.26 support (green ...) and 3.18 support (blue --).

For all you know, we could see STX Pan Ocean testing the long term downtrend support (low red), and then rebounding up to test the 3.47 resistance (red --) and 3.53 resistance (pink --).



For monday :

Support @ 3.308 (low red), 3.26 (green ...), 3.18 (blue --).
Resistance @ 3.46 (mid red), 3.47 (red --), 3.53 (pink --), 3.60 (upp blue), 3.65 (green --)

Good Luck !!

SPC 230508

After its dramatic rise and fall in apr, SPC has more or less, been trading within the downtrend channel (red) and between the 7.20 support (blue --) and 7.37 resistance (green --).



Today, we saw SPC trading above the downtrend resistance (upp pink, upp red), and testing the 7.37 resistance (green --). However, there wasn't enough buying momentum and SPC closed right on the downtrend resistance (upp pink).

If SPC opens above the downtrend resistance (upp red) on monday, there's a good chance we might see it testing the 7.37 resistance again.

However, if SPC opens below the downtrend resistance (upp red), we could see it trading sideways again, just like it was doing since 29 apr.

For monday :

Support @ 7.23 (upp pink), 7.20 (blue --), 7.17 (low blue), 7.11 (low red)
Resistance @ 7.29 (upp red), 7.37 (green --), 7.47 (upp blue)

Good Luck !!

Sky Petrol 230508

After testing, and failing to break, the 0.375 resistance (red --) and 24 apr, Sky China Petrol went downtrend from 25 apr onwards, breaking the 0.345 support (blue --) and 0.330 support (light blue --).



Sky China Petrol managed to find support at the 0.315 support (green --) and also formed a Gravestone Doji on 22 may when it closed right on the downtrend support (mid red).

Since the trend prior to the Gravestone Doji was a downtrend, we could see the start of a trend reversal. For that to happen, Sky China Petrol would have to continue to trade with the uptrend channel (blue) and also break the 0.330 resistance (light blue --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.320, 0.318 (low blue), 0.315 (green --), 0.314 (mid red)
Resistance @ 0.330 (light blue --), 0.333 (upp red), 0.335 (upp blue), 0.345 (blue --)

Good Luck !!

Olam Research Report

by DBS Group (16 May)

3Q2008 earnings were slightly above expectations, rising by 39% y-o-y to $56m on revenue growth of 52% y-o-y to $2.4b. As at 9M2008, Olam's bottom line rose by 31% y-o-y to $103m, as top line expanded by 26% y-o-y to $3.8b.

The robust performance was led by broad based growth that saw both volumes and net contribution per tonne increase across all segments (excluding Queensland Cotton's results) on y-o-y. We raised out FY2008 earnings numbers by 6%, kept our FY2009 numbers and introduced FY2010 forecast.

Olam continues to execute well on its expansion strategy and deliver on earnings growth. Target price is based on 30 times FY2009 PER, predicated on one time PEG.

We are forecasting 31% EPS CAGR for Olam over FY2007-FY2010F.

-Research Report by DBS Group (16 May)