by HSBC Global Research (27 June)
MODERATING container ship outlook, but secured revenue growth: Global container ship delivery until 2010 should exceed the average 10 per cent y-o-y global container trade growth.
Ship owners could withhold order placement on any softening of time charter and container ship freight rates, unless demand growth accelerates over the next two years. Yangzijiang's full backlog and new capacity should, however, secure impressive revenue growth (70-85 per cent over 2008-09 estimated).
Operating margins under pressure due to limited pricing power: We expect operating margins to flatten or decline in 2008 and 2009. Limited pricing power from ships will be delivered in 2008 and 2009, more bulk carrier deliveries, better operating leverage from increased volumes at the new shipyard, and efficiency gains are unlikely to offset rising steel costs (up 20-25 per cent y-o-y), in our opinion.
Panamax container ship (80 per cent of revenues and 50 per cent of order book) prices increased at a slower pace than bulk carriers (20 per cent of revenue). We expect 2008 operating margin to be essentially flat y-o-y and down 50 basis points in 2009.
Our proprietary market assessed cost of capital (MACC) valuation implies the stock is trading at a discount to sector average. Our TP is based on long-term adjusted cash returns on invested capital of 11.5 per cent, MACC of 16.6 per cent, PE of 7.8 times, and enterprise value/Ebitda of 4.9 times our 2009 EPS forecast.
Given the moderating container ship market, we think Yangzijiang should trade at a discount to its peers.
-Research Report by HSBC Global Research (27 June)
Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Semb Marine 270608
We did indeed see Sembcorp Marine breaking the 4.12 support (green --) at the beginning of the week. Sembcorp Marine even tested the downtrend support thrice, and the 4.00 support (blue ...) twice.
However, today we saw Sembcorp Marine finally gapping down to open below the 4.00 support. It even tested the long term downtrend support (low pink), and came very close to testing the 3.86 support (green ...) too.
As the day progressed, we saw Sembcorp Marine slowly recovering and continued buying momentum helped pushed the counter back above the 4.00 support (blue ...), briefly testing the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink).
If Sembcorp Marine opens above the 4.00 support (blue ...) on monday, and breaks the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink), we could see it testing the 4.12 resistance (green --) soon.
However, if Sembcorp Marine opens below the 4.00 support, and breaks the 3.86 support (green ...) we could see it continue to trade within the downtrend channel (red). If it holds above the uptrend support (low blue), we would probably see Sembcorp Marine trading sideways, with the upside limited by the 4.00 neckline (blue ...) and supported by the uptrend support (low blue).
For monday :
Support @ 4.00 (blue ...), 3.88 (low blue), 3.868 (low pink), 3.86 (green ...), 3.83 (low red)
Resistance @ 4.05 (upp red), 4.083 (mid pink), 4.12 (green --), 4.15 (mid blue), 4.22 (red --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
However, today we saw Sembcorp Marine finally gapping down to open below the 4.00 support. It even tested the long term downtrend support (low pink), and came very close to testing the 3.86 support (green ...) too.
As the day progressed, we saw Sembcorp Marine slowly recovering and continued buying momentum helped pushed the counter back above the 4.00 support (blue ...), briefly testing the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink).
If Sembcorp Marine opens above the 4.00 support (blue ...) on monday, and breaks the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink), we could see it testing the 4.12 resistance (green --) soon.
However, if Sembcorp Marine opens below the 4.00 support, and breaks the 3.86 support (green ...) we could see it continue to trade within the downtrend channel (red). If it holds above the uptrend support (low blue), we would probably see Sembcorp Marine trading sideways, with the upside limited by the 4.00 neckline (blue ...) and supported by the uptrend support (low blue).
For monday :
Support @ 4.00 (blue ...), 3.88 (low blue), 3.868 (low pink), 3.86 (green ...), 3.83 (low red)
Resistance @ 4.05 (upp red), 4.083 (mid pink), 4.12 (green --), 4.15 (mid blue), 4.22 (red --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Olam 270608
Olam couldn't hold onto the 2.60 support (pink ...) anymore and finally broke it today when it gapped down on opening.
We also saw Olam testing the downtrend support (mid red) before closing right on the 2.48 support (blue ...).
If Olam opens above the 2.48 support (blue ...) on monday, we could see it trading sideways for the time being.
However, if Olam breaks the long term downtrend support (low pink), we could see it testing the downtrend support (mid red), or even the 2.36 support (green ...).
For monday :
Support @ 2.48 (blue ...), 2.46 (low green), 2.45 (low pink), 2.43 (mid red), 2.36 (green ...)
Resistance @ 2.58 (mid pink), 2.60 (pink ...), 2.61 (mid green), 2.63 (pink --), 2.67 (upp red), 2.715 (upp green)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
We also saw Olam testing the downtrend support (mid red) before closing right on the 2.48 support (blue ...).
If Olam opens above the 2.48 support (blue ...) on monday, we could see it trading sideways for the time being.
However, if Olam breaks the long term downtrend support (low pink), we could see it testing the downtrend support (mid red), or even the 2.36 support (green ...).
For monday :
Support @ 2.48 (blue ...), 2.46 (low green), 2.45 (low pink), 2.43 (mid red), 2.36 (green ...)
Resistance @ 2.58 (mid pink), 2.60 (pink ...), 2.61 (mid green), 2.63 (pink --), 2.67 (upp red), 2.715 (upp green)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Indofood Agri 270608
After plunging dramatically from a high of 2.87 on 24 jun to a low of 2.45 today, Indofood Agri formed a Bullish Piercing Line when it gapped down on opening, before closing below the 2.60 resistance (red --) and right on the uptrend resistance (mid blue).
For confirmation of the trend reversal, we would need Indofood Agri ideally to gap up on opening, or at least stay above the 2.60 resistance (red --).
For monday :
Support @ 2.53 (green --), 2.47 (low red, green ...), 2.45 (low blue), 2.40 (blue --), 2.26 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 2.60 (mid blue, red --, mid red), 2.64 (red ...), 2.77 (upp blue, pink --), 2.85 (upp red)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
For confirmation of the trend reversal, we would need Indofood Agri ideally to gap up on opening, or at least stay above the 2.60 resistance (red --).
For monday :
Support @ 2.53 (green --), 2.47 (low red, green ...), 2.45 (low blue), 2.40 (blue --), 2.26 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 2.60 (mid blue, red --, mid red), 2.64 (red ...), 2.77 (upp blue, pink --), 2.85 (upp red)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Ferro China 270608
Another counter that gapped down today and formed the Long Legged Doji. Ferro China broke the 1.26 support (green ...) by opening right on the 1.22 support (blue --).
Going by recent market sentiments, it is very likely FerroChina will continue to trade within the downtrend channel (red), and could also possibly test the 1.18 (light blue --).
For monday :
Support @ 1.22 (blue --), 1.21 (low blue), 1.19 (low red), 1.18 (low pink, light blue --)
Resistance @ 1.237 (mid red), 1.26 (green ...), 1.30 (upp red, blue ...), 1.325 (upp pink)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Going by recent market sentiments, it is very likely FerroChina will continue to trade within the downtrend channel (red), and could also possibly test the 1.18 (light blue --).
For monday :
Support @ 1.22 (blue --), 1.21 (low blue), 1.19 (low red), 1.18 (low pink, light blue --)
Resistance @ 1.237 (mid red), 1.26 (green ...), 1.30 (upp red, blue ...), 1.325 (upp pink)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Cosco 270608
Cosco opened below the 3.26 support (blue ...) again today. Cosco also broke the uptrend support (low blue) and tested the downtrend support (mid red).
Unless Cosco breaks the 3.26 resistance (blue ...), we would most likely see Cosco continue trading within the downtrend channel (pink), maybe even towards the 3.08 support (red ...).
For monday :
Support @ 3.18 (mid red), 3.12 (low pink), 3.08 (red ...), 3.05 (low red)
Resistance @ 3.24 (low blue), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.284 (upp pink), 3.346 (upp blue), 3.36 (green ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Unless Cosco breaks the 3.26 resistance (blue ...), we would most likely see Cosco continue trading within the downtrend channel (pink), maybe even towards the 3.08 support (red ...).
For monday :
Support @ 3.18 (mid red), 3.12 (low pink), 3.08 (red ...), 3.05 (low red)
Resistance @ 3.24 (low blue), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.284 (upp pink), 3.346 (upp blue), 3.36 (green ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
China HongX 270608
There was a great deal of confusion and indecision in the market recently, as characterised by the Long Legged Doji formed for China Hongxing today. As the trend prior to the Long Legged Doji was a downtrend, this would usually indicate that there could be a trend reversal.
Therefore, to confirm that China Hongxing has indeed reversed its downtrend, we would have see it at least opening above its 0.450 closing price on monday, forming the Abandoned Baby or the Morning Doji Star.
Having said that, we must also not forget that China Hongxing is still trading within the downtrend channel (pink), and is also trading very near to the uptrend support (low blue) and lown term downtrend support (low grey).
For monday :
Support @ 0.434 (low blue), 0.416 (low grey), 0.407 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.456 (upp pink), 0.485 (red --), 0.513 (upp blue), 0.520 (pink --), 0.535 (light blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Therefore, to confirm that China Hongxing has indeed reversed its downtrend, we would have see it at least opening above its 0.450 closing price on monday, forming the Abandoned Baby or the Morning Doji Star.
Having said that, we must also not forget that China Hongxing is still trading within the downtrend channel (pink), and is also trading very near to the uptrend support (low blue) and lown term downtrend support (low grey).
For monday :
Support @ 0.434 (low blue), 0.416 (low grey), 0.407 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.456 (upp pink), 0.485 (red --), 0.513 (upp blue), 0.520 (pink --), 0.535 (light blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Friday, June 27, 2008
Indofood Agri Research Report
by DMG & Partners (26 June)
KNEE-JERK reaction to higher crude palm oil (CPO) export tax and weaker Malaysian CPO export data: Indofood's share price fell on Wednesday, together with the other Singapore-listed palm oil companies, when news of higher Indonesian CPO export tax levied for July and weaker Malaysia CPO export data broke.
Indonesia's trade ministry raised the base price used to calculate the CPO export tax from US$1,105 per tonne in June to US$1,144 per tonne in July. The tax rate on CPO shipments will be raised from 15 per cent to 20 per cent accordingly.
According to the independent surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, Malaysia's palm oil exports for the period June 1 to 25 declined 9.4 per cent from the prior month to 899,300 tonnes. For the same period in May, Malaysia exported 993,100 tonnes of palm oil.
Selldown overdone, outlook still positive: We are of a view that the sharp selldown is unwarranted as we have already factored in the higher tax rate in our earnings forecasts. In addition, the macro outlook remains positive. According to the United States Department of Agriculture's projections, global palm oil consumption for 2008/2009 will grow 6 per cent, reaching 42.7 million tonnes.
On the back of forecast growing demand of palm oil from India and China and persistently high petroleum prices, CPO prices are likely to remain at favourable levels, currently at around RM3,553 (S$1,491) per tonne.
With the global trend of higher consumption and usage of palm oil and the present high CPO price of about RM3,553 per tonne, we believe that Indofood will continue to enjoy the present conducive environment, especially with its high ratio of mature acreage.
This being so, we are maintaining our PE of 14 times (in line with the Singapore and Malaysian plantation companies). Although Indofood's share price has risen 11.7 per cent since our initiation on the platter as at end-May, our fair potentially translates into an additional upside of 29.5 per cent.
-Research Report by DMG & Partners (26 June)
KNEE-JERK reaction to higher crude palm oil (CPO) export tax and weaker Malaysian CPO export data: Indofood's share price fell on Wednesday, together with the other Singapore-listed palm oil companies, when news of higher Indonesian CPO export tax levied for July and weaker Malaysia CPO export data broke.
Indonesia's trade ministry raised the base price used to calculate the CPO export tax from US$1,105 per tonne in June to US$1,144 per tonne in July. The tax rate on CPO shipments will be raised from 15 per cent to 20 per cent accordingly.
According to the independent surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, Malaysia's palm oil exports for the period June 1 to 25 declined 9.4 per cent from the prior month to 899,300 tonnes. For the same period in May, Malaysia exported 993,100 tonnes of palm oil.
Selldown overdone, outlook still positive: We are of a view that the sharp selldown is unwarranted as we have already factored in the higher tax rate in our earnings forecasts. In addition, the macro outlook remains positive. According to the United States Department of Agriculture's projections, global palm oil consumption for 2008/2009 will grow 6 per cent, reaching 42.7 million tonnes.
On the back of forecast growing demand of palm oil from India and China and persistently high petroleum prices, CPO prices are likely to remain at favourable levels, currently at around RM3,553 (S$1,491) per tonne.
With the global trend of higher consumption and usage of palm oil and the present high CPO price of about RM3,553 per tonne, we believe that Indofood will continue to enjoy the present conducive environment, especially with its high ratio of mature acreage.
This being so, we are maintaining our PE of 14 times (in line with the Singapore and Malaysian plantation companies). Although Indofood's share price has risen 11.7 per cent since our initiation on the platter as at end-May, our fair potentially translates into an additional upside of 29.5 per cent.
-Research Report by DMG & Partners (26 June)
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Ferro China 260608
After barely keeping its head above the 1.30 support (blue ...) Ferro China finally broke the support, tested the 1.26 support (green ...) and closed right on the uptrend support (low blue).
If FerroChina breaks the 1.26 support (green ...) tomorrow, we could see it testing the long term downtrend support (low pink).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 1.26 (green ...), 1.23 (low pink), 1.22 (blue --), 1.18 (light blue --), 1.11 (red --)
Resistance @ 1.30 (blue ...), 1.33 (upp pink), 1.34 (pink ...), 1.346 (mid blue), 1.38 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
If FerroChina breaks the 1.26 support (green ...) tomorrow, we could see it testing the long term downtrend support (low pink).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 1.26 (green ...), 1.23 (low pink), 1.22 (blue --), 1.18 (light blue --), 1.11 (red --)
Resistance @ 1.30 (blue ...), 1.33 (upp pink), 1.34 (pink ...), 1.346 (mid blue), 1.38 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Cosco 260608
After closing below the 3.26 support (blue ...) on 24 jun, Cosco managed to recover and managed to trade above the 3.26 support (blue ...) today, although its upside is still capped by the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) and uptrend resistance (mid blue).
We could continue to see Cosco trading sideways, supported by the 3.26 support (blue ...) and uptrend support (low blue). If the uptrend support breaks, we could see Cosco testing the downtrend support (low red), or even the long term downtrend support (low pink).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.26 (blue ...), 3.23 (low blue), 3.19 (low red), 3.15 (low pink)
Resistance @ 3.31 (upp pink), 3.338 (upp red, mid blue), 3.36 (green ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
We could continue to see Cosco trading sideways, supported by the 3.26 support (blue ...) and uptrend support (low blue). If the uptrend support breaks, we could see Cosco testing the downtrend support (low red), or even the long term downtrend support (low pink).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.26 (blue ...), 3.23 (low blue), 3.19 (low red), 3.15 (low pink)
Resistance @ 3.31 (upp pink), 3.338 (upp red, mid blue), 3.36 (green ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
China HongX 260608
Although China Hongxing opened above the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and almost came close to testing the 0.485 resistance, the buying momentum could not be sustained and we saw China Hongxing closing right on the uptrend support (low green).
Tomorrow, we see the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and uptrend support (low green) meeting at the around the 0.468 level. If China Hongxing opens or trades below that level, we could see it testing the lower uptrend support (low blue).
Otherwise, we could see China Hongxing continue to trade sideways around the 0.465 level.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.465 (upp pink), 0.433 (low blue), 0.422 (low grey), 0.415 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.470 (low green), 0.485 (red --), 0.494 (upp green), 0.513 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Tomorrow, we see the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and uptrend support (low green) meeting at the around the 0.468 level. If China Hongxing opens or trades below that level, we could see it testing the lower uptrend support (low blue).
Otherwise, we could see China Hongxing continue to trade sideways around the 0.465 level.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.465 (upp pink), 0.433 (low blue), 0.422 (low grey), 0.415 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.470 (low green), 0.485 (red --), 0.494 (upp green), 0.513 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Marine Sector Research Report
by DBS Group Research (25 June)
IRON cost pressure: The newswire reported that BHP Bilton and Rio Tinto and the Chinese steelmakers have settled on an annual price increase of 85-96 per cent for iron ores from Australia, confirming earlier rumours on similar magnitude of increase as Australian miners demand for a freight premium over iron ores from Brazil.
This two to three-month delay in settlement of annual price increase for Australian iron ores is significantly higher than the earlier 65-71 per cent price increase for Brazilian iron ores. This will inevitably drive up the cost structure for steel mills, and assert further pressure on newbuild prices for bulkers and containerships, given the higher cost structure.
China's surging appetite for iron-ore price has resulted in an annual price increase since 2004: 18.6 per cent y-o-y in 2004, 71.5 per cent in 2005, 19.0 per cent in 2006, 9.5 per cent in 2007, and 65-96 per cent in 2008, according to data from China Daily and DBS Vickers.
We reiterate our view that the Chinese yards have yet to feel the full impact of annual increase in prices for coking coal and iron ore YTD, as the usual time-lag in cost passed on by steel mills has been lengthened due to the government's clampdown on inflationary pressure in the economy and the expected strong resistance from customers to absorb a single sharp increase in steel prices.
Still, we believe that the Singapore Exchange-listed Chinese shipyards cannot avoid the inevitable but lagged steel price increase, and they will need to grapple with expected margin pressure on their 4-5 year backlog for orders that were secured at lower newbuild prices in 2006-07.
In our opinion, the negative effect of higher steel prices will set in for projects that start work after April 2008, after factoring in the lagged effect in steel price increase to customers, and taking into account the announced steel price increase YTD.
We recommend investors to switch or stay with Singapore-based yards, which are exposed to the still-positive offshore sector and face lesser cost pressure. Our picks include Sembcorp Marine, ASL Marine, and Jaya Holdings.
-Research Report by DBS Group Research (25 June)
IRON cost pressure: The newswire reported that BHP Bilton and Rio Tinto and the Chinese steelmakers have settled on an annual price increase of 85-96 per cent for iron ores from Australia, confirming earlier rumours on similar magnitude of increase as Australian miners demand for a freight premium over iron ores from Brazil.
This two to three-month delay in settlement of annual price increase for Australian iron ores is significantly higher than the earlier 65-71 per cent price increase for Brazilian iron ores. This will inevitably drive up the cost structure for steel mills, and assert further pressure on newbuild prices for bulkers and containerships, given the higher cost structure.
China's surging appetite for iron-ore price has resulted in an annual price increase since 2004: 18.6 per cent y-o-y in 2004, 71.5 per cent in 2005, 19.0 per cent in 2006, 9.5 per cent in 2007, and 65-96 per cent in 2008, according to data from China Daily and DBS Vickers.
We reiterate our view that the Chinese yards have yet to feel the full impact of annual increase in prices for coking coal and iron ore YTD, as the usual time-lag in cost passed on by steel mills has been lengthened due to the government's clampdown on inflationary pressure in the economy and the expected strong resistance from customers to absorb a single sharp increase in steel prices.
Still, we believe that the Singapore Exchange-listed Chinese shipyards cannot avoid the inevitable but lagged steel price increase, and they will need to grapple with expected margin pressure on their 4-5 year backlog for orders that were secured at lower newbuild prices in 2006-07.
In our opinion, the negative effect of higher steel prices will set in for projects that start work after April 2008, after factoring in the lagged effect in steel price increase to customers, and taking into account the announced steel price increase YTD.
We recommend investors to switch or stay with Singapore-based yards, which are exposed to the still-positive offshore sector and face lesser cost pressure. Our picks include Sembcorp Marine, ASL Marine, and Jaya Holdings.
-Research Report by DBS Group Research (25 June)
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Cosco 240608
When Cosco opened above the uptrend resistance (mid blue), there was hope initially that it could test the 3.36 resistance (green ...) and the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink). However, selling pressure prevailed and we saw Cosco doing a U-turn and breaking the 3.26 (blue ...) supports instead.
Cosco closed at 3.20 today, which is right on 3 support trendlines. However, if you had noticed, Cosco is still trading within the downtrend channel (pink). So we could still see Cosco trending lower, unless it can stay above the 3.26 support (blue ...).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.20 (mid red), 3.19 (low pink), 3.12 (low red), 3.08 (red ...)
Resistance @ 3.26 (blue ...), 3.32 (mid blue), 3.35 (upp pink), 3.36 (green ...), 3.41 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Cosco closed at 3.20 today, which is right on 3 support trendlines. However, if you had noticed, Cosco is still trading within the downtrend channel (pink). So we could still see Cosco trending lower, unless it can stay above the 3.26 support (blue ...).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.20 (mid red), 3.19 (low pink), 3.12 (low red), 3.08 (red ...)
Resistance @ 3.26 (blue ...), 3.32 (mid blue), 3.35 (upp pink), 3.36 (green ...), 3.41 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
BakerTech 240608
BakerTech today broke the 0.290 support (red ...) and downtrend support (mid pink), and also closed at day low at the 0.280 support (green --).
If Baker Tech breaks the 0.280 support (green --), we could see it testing the 0.270 support (blue --).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.280 (green --), 0.277 (low pink), 0.275 (pink --), 0.270 (blue --)
Resistance @ 0.286 (mid pink), 0.290 (red ...), 0.297 (upp blue), 0.300 blue ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
If Baker Tech breaks the 0.280 support (green --), we could see it testing the 0.270 support (blue --).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.280 (green --), 0.277 (low pink), 0.275 (pink --), 0.270 (blue --)
Resistance @ 0.286 (mid pink), 0.290 (red ...), 0.297 (upp blue), 0.300 blue ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Semb Marine 200608
Sembcorp Marine's position has become more and more precarious. As you can see from the chart, Sembcorp Marine closed right on many support trendlines. Initially, with the forming of a Doji on 18 jun, coupled with the downtrend prior to the Doji, there was hope of a trend reversal. However, the next day (19 jun) saw Sembcorp Marine breaking the 4.22 support (red --), dashing any hope of a reversal.
Going by recent market sentiments, we could see a high chance Sembcorp Marine breaking the 4.12 support (green --). If that happens, we could see Sembcorp Marine testing the downtrend support (low red, low pink).
Next support based on volume is around the 4.00 level (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 4.12 (green --), 4.11 (mid pink), 4.02 (low red, low pink), 4.00 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 4.13 (mid blue, low light blue), 4.18 (upp red), 4.22 (red --), 4.30 (upp blue, blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Going by recent market sentiments, we could see a high chance Sembcorp Marine breaking the 4.12 support (green --). If that happens, we could see Sembcorp Marine testing the downtrend support (low red, low pink).
Next support based on volume is around the 4.00 level (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 4.12 (green --), 4.11 (mid pink), 4.02 (low red, low pink), 4.00 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 4.13 (mid blue, low light blue), 4.18 (upp red), 4.22 (red --), 4.30 (upp blue, blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Olam 200608
Olam opened above the 2.60 neckline (pink ...) and long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) and even tested the 2.63 neckline (pink --). However, selling pressure persisted and we saw Olam again closing below the 2.60 neckline (pink ...).
Since Olam did not test the uptrend support (low blue), we could see Olam consolidating around the 2.60 neckline, maybe even trending up slightly within the uptrend channel (green).
If Olam does not break the uptrend support (low blue) next week, we could see it testing the downtrend resistance (upp red) and the 2.63 neckline (pink --). However, if the uptrend support is broken, we could see Olam testing the 2.48 support (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 2.56 (low green), 2.52 (low blue), 2.48 (blue ...), 2.47 (low red), 2.41 (low pink)
Resistance @ 2.60 (mid pink, pink ...), 2.63 (pink --) 2.657 (mid green), 2.676 (mid blue), 2.69 (upp green), 2.70 (upp red)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Since Olam did not test the uptrend support (low blue), we could see Olam consolidating around the 2.60 neckline, maybe even trending up slightly within the uptrend channel (green).
If Olam does not break the uptrend support (low blue) next week, we could see it testing the downtrend resistance (upp red) and the 2.63 neckline (pink --). However, if the uptrend support is broken, we could see Olam testing the 2.48 support (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 2.56 (low green), 2.52 (low blue), 2.48 (blue ...), 2.47 (low red), 2.41 (low pink)
Resistance @ 2.60 (mid pink, pink ...), 2.63 (pink --) 2.657 (mid green), 2.676 (mid blue), 2.69 (upp green), 2.70 (upp red)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Friday, June 20, 2008
Ferro China 200608
Action came earlier than expected for Ferro China as we saw it going on a super run on wed 18 jun. FerroChina broke the 1.30 resistance (blue ...) and tested several other resistances before closing below the 1.34 resistance (pink ...).
However, the run was brought abruptly to a slowdown as we saw Ferro China testing the 1.30 support (blue ...) again and closing just above the downtrend support (low red) and uptrend support (mid blue).
If FerroChina wants to maintain its uptrend momentum, it would have to remain at least above the 1.30 support (blue ...).
However if the 1.30 support breaks, we could see Ferro China revisiting the 1.26 support (green ...) again.
For monday :
Support @ 1.31 (mid blue), 1.30 (low red, blue ...), 1.264 (low pink), 1.26 (low blue, green ...)
Resistance @ 1.34 (pink ...), 1.362 (mid pink), 1.37 (upp blue), 1.41 (mid red), 1.44 (red ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
However, the run was brought abruptly to a slowdown as we saw Ferro China testing the 1.30 support (blue ...) again and closing just above the downtrend support (low red) and uptrend support (mid blue).
If FerroChina wants to maintain its uptrend momentum, it would have to remain at least above the 1.30 support (blue ...).
However if the 1.30 support breaks, we could see Ferro China revisiting the 1.26 support (green ...) again.
For monday :
Support @ 1.31 (mid blue), 1.30 (low red, blue ...), 1.264 (low pink), 1.26 (low blue, green ...)
Resistance @ 1.34 (pink ...), 1.362 (mid pink), 1.37 (upp blue), 1.41 (mid red), 1.44 (red ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Cosco 200608
After breaking the 3.36 resistance (green ...) and uptrend resistance (upp blue) on 17 jun, we saw Cosco hitting the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink). However, the uptrend momentum could not be sustained and we saw Cosco breaking the 3.36 support today.
If we compare this recent uptrend with the one during 26 may to 6 jun, we can find some similarities. Would we see Cosco gapping down next monday like it did on 9 jun? Market sentiments remains cautious as volume remains relatively low.
For monday :
Support @ 3.30 (mid blue), 3.27 (low red), 3.26 (red ...), 3.23 (low pink), 3.19 (low blue)
Resistance @ 3.36 (green ...), 3.40 (upp blue, upp pink), 3.43 (mid red), 3.48 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
If we compare this recent uptrend with the one during 26 may to 6 jun, we can find some similarities. Would we see Cosco gapping down next monday like it did on 9 jun? Market sentiments remains cautious as volume remains relatively low.
For monday :
Support @ 3.30 (mid blue), 3.27 (low red), 3.26 (red ...), 3.23 (low pink), 3.19 (low blue)
Resistance @ 3.36 (green ...), 3.40 (upp blue, upp pink), 3.43 (mid red), 3.48 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Olam 190608
After breaking the 2.76 resistance (red --) yesterday, Olam came back down to earth just as quickly today, closing below the 2.60 support (pink ...) as well.
If Olam cannot break the 2.60 neckline (pink ...) tomorrow, we might see it testing the uptrend support (low blue), or even the 2.48 support (blue ...).
Even if Olam breaks the 2.60 neckline, it still has to content with the uptrend resistance (mid blue) and downtrend resistance (upp red).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 2.58, 2.508 (low blue, low red), 2.48 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 2.60 (mid pink, pink ...), 2.63 (pink --), 2.663 (mid blue), 2.73 (upp red), 2.75 (upp blue), 2.76 (red --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
If Olam cannot break the 2.60 neckline (pink ...) tomorrow, we might see it testing the uptrend support (low blue), or even the 2.48 support (blue ...).
Even if Olam breaks the 2.60 neckline, it still has to content with the uptrend resistance (mid blue) and downtrend resistance (upp red).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 2.58, 2.508 (low blue, low red), 2.48 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 2.60 (mid pink, pink ...), 2.63 (pink --), 2.663 (mid blue), 2.73 (upp red), 2.75 (upp blue), 2.76 (red --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
BakerTech 190608
Today is T + 9 since BakerTech surged and hit the 0.325 resistance (red --) on 6 jun. Moreover, Baker Tech formed a Gravestone Doji today too. Would we see a repeat of the pattern of 6 jun?
If Baker Tech breaks the uptrend support, we could see it testing the 0.290 support (red ...), which it did not touch since 15 may. If Bakertech breaks the long term downtrend resistance (red), we could see it testing at least the 0.315 resistance (pink --).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.2957 (low blue), 0.292 (low pink), 0.290 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.300 (blue ...), 0.305 (pink ...), 0.307 (red), 0.310 (upp blue), 0.312 (mid pink), 0.315 (pink --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
If Baker Tech breaks the uptrend support, we could see it testing the 0.290 support (red ...), which it did not touch since 15 may. If Bakertech breaks the long term downtrend resistance (red), we could see it testing at least the 0.315 resistance (pink --).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.2957 (low blue), 0.292 (low pink), 0.290 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.300 (blue ...), 0.305 (pink ...), 0.307 (red), 0.310 (upp blue), 0.312 (mid pink), 0.315 (pink --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Olam Research Report
by DMG & Partners (19 June)
ORGANIC and inorganic expansion: Olam, a leading global supply chain manager with operations in 56 countries, has recorded a historical three-year net profit CAGR of 31 per cent. This has come on the back of its very aggressive expansion programme, both organic and inorganic, as well as its focused approach to widen margins.
Olam has successfully raised contribution per ton traded: This is evident from all the four main segments. For 9M 2008, its gross contribution per ton from confectionery and beverage ingredients was 29 per cent higher than the FY2004 level, whilst fibre and wood products recorded a 54 per cent increase over FY2004.
Inorganic expansion could drive earnings further: Olam has entered into a joint venture with Wilmar to form Nauvu, which will invest in palm oil, natural rubber and sugar assets in Africa. The guidance is that Nauvu could generate earnings of US$35 million on a steady-state basis, with Olam's share at US$17.5 million.
The Queensland Cotton Holdings acquisition may not be earnings-accretive in the short term due to the drought in Australia, but there is huge earnings potential in the longer term.
But the market was concerned that the recent US$300 million convertible bond issue could dilute Olam's EPS going ahead: We agree that the dilution could range between 6.2 per cent and 8.3 per cent, depending on whether the US$100 million upsize option is exercised. We view this fund-raising exercise as positive, as it provides Olam with additional funds to expand its business.
Our DCF valuation works out to 28 times FY2009 EPS. Based on the three-year historical net profit CAGR of 31 per cent, this yields a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) of less than one time.
-Research Report by DMG & Partners (19 June)
ORGANIC and inorganic expansion: Olam, a leading global supply chain manager with operations in 56 countries, has recorded a historical three-year net profit CAGR of 31 per cent. This has come on the back of its very aggressive expansion programme, both organic and inorganic, as well as its focused approach to widen margins.
Olam has successfully raised contribution per ton traded: This is evident from all the four main segments. For 9M 2008, its gross contribution per ton from confectionery and beverage ingredients was 29 per cent higher than the FY2004 level, whilst fibre and wood products recorded a 54 per cent increase over FY2004.
Inorganic expansion could drive earnings further: Olam has entered into a joint venture with Wilmar to form Nauvu, which will invest in palm oil, natural rubber and sugar assets in Africa. The guidance is that Nauvu could generate earnings of US$35 million on a steady-state basis, with Olam's share at US$17.5 million.
The Queensland Cotton Holdings acquisition may not be earnings-accretive in the short term due to the drought in Australia, but there is huge earnings potential in the longer term.
But the market was concerned that the recent US$300 million convertible bond issue could dilute Olam's EPS going ahead: We agree that the dilution could range between 6.2 per cent and 8.3 per cent, depending on whether the US$100 million upsize option is exercised. We view this fund-raising exercise as positive, as it provides Olam with additional funds to expand its business.
Our DCF valuation works out to 28 times FY2009 EPS. Based on the three-year historical net profit CAGR of 31 per cent, this yields a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) of less than one time.
-Research Report by DMG & Partners (19 June)
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
SGX Research Report
by DMG & PARTNERS (17 June)
AVERAGE Daily Turnover (ADT) has fallen from the peak of S$3.03 billion in October 2007 to S$1.80 billion in May 2008 and S$1.54 billion for the first two weeks of June 2008.
The ADT reduction can be partly attributed to investors' increasing concern on growth in the light of surging inflation from higher commodity prices.
We also noted that the average value per share traded has been rising over the past few months. From a low of S$0.67 in June/July 2007, it has steadily risen to S$1.31 in the first two weeks of June 2008. This reflects an increased trading share coming from the blue-chips and a lower share from penny stocks. It could suggest that retail trading interest has been weakening (retailers typically trade the lower value penny stocks).
We have lowered our forecast FY2008 ADT (including structured warrants trading) from S$2.36 billion to S$2.24 billion to take into account the recent weakness in stockmarket turnover.
Our forecast FY2009 ADT has also been lowered from S$2.05 billion to S$1.90 billion. Correspondingly, we have reduced our forecast FY2008 net profit by 5.3 per cent from S$477.3 million to S$451.9 million. Our forecast FY2009 net profit is also cut by 5.9 per cent from S$392 million to S$369 million.
Our fair price is pegged to FY 2009 EPS of 18. We used a multiple of 18, which is a slight premium to the multiple of 16 that SGX traded in FY 2005, when securities market turnover fell 15 per cent y-o-y - our assumption is that FY2009 securities ADT will fall 15 per cent y-o-y to S$1.90 billion.
-Research Report by DMG & PARTNERS (17 June)
AVERAGE Daily Turnover (ADT) has fallen from the peak of S$3.03 billion in October 2007 to S$1.80 billion in May 2008 and S$1.54 billion for the first two weeks of June 2008.
The ADT reduction can be partly attributed to investors' increasing concern on growth in the light of surging inflation from higher commodity prices.
We also noted that the average value per share traded has been rising over the past few months. From a low of S$0.67 in June/July 2007, it has steadily risen to S$1.31 in the first two weeks of June 2008. This reflects an increased trading share coming from the blue-chips and a lower share from penny stocks. It could suggest that retail trading interest has been weakening (retailers typically trade the lower value penny stocks).
We have lowered our forecast FY2008 ADT (including structured warrants trading) from S$2.36 billion to S$2.24 billion to take into account the recent weakness in stockmarket turnover.
Our forecast FY2009 ADT has also been lowered from S$2.05 billion to S$1.90 billion. Correspondingly, we have reduced our forecast FY2008 net profit by 5.3 per cent from S$477.3 million to S$451.9 million. Our forecast FY2009 net profit is also cut by 5.9 per cent from S$392 million to S$369 million.
Our fair price is pegged to FY 2009 EPS of 18. We used a multiple of 18, which is a slight premium to the multiple of 16 that SGX traded in FY 2005, when securities market turnover fell 15 per cent y-o-y - our assumption is that FY2009 securities ADT will fall 15 per cent y-o-y to S$1.90 billion.
-Research Report by DMG & PARTNERS (17 June)
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Sky Petrol 170608
Sky China Petrol formed another Gravestone Doji today. The previous time we saw Sky China Petrol forming one was on 22 may. At that time, the reversal did not materialise and we saw Sky China Petrol plummeting to an all time low of 0.255 today.
The last time Sky China Petrol traded below 0.260 was way back in nov 2005, and we have not seen anything this low since. If Sky China Petrol does not reverse soon, we could see it hit its historical low of 0.240.
For the Gravestone Doji to indicate a Bullish reversal, we would have to see Sky China Petrol opening at least above the long term downtrend resistance (mid red), better still if it opens above 0.265.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.255, 0.251 (low pink), 0.245 (low red), 0.240 (historical low)
Resistance @ 0.260 (mid red), 0.271 (upp pink), 0.280
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
The last time Sky China Petrol traded below 0.260 was way back in nov 2005, and we have not seen anything this low since. If Sky China Petrol does not reverse soon, we could see it hit its historical low of 0.240.
For the Gravestone Doji to indicate a Bullish reversal, we would have to see Sky China Petrol opening at least above the long term downtrend resistance (mid red), better still if it opens above 0.265.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.255, 0.251 (low pink), 0.245 (low red), 0.240 (historical low)
Resistance @ 0.260 (mid red), 0.271 (upp pink), 0.280
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Ferro China 170608
After closing right on the long term downtrend support on 13 jun, Ferro China seems to have found some temporary support at the 1.26 neckline (green ...).
However, FerroChina is also trading closer and closer to the uptrend support (low blue), and we might see some action by the end of this week, when the uptrend support (low blue) meets the 1.26 neckline (green ...).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 1.26 (green ...), 1.25 (low blue), 1.22 (low pink, blue --), 1.18 (light blue --)
Resistance @ 1.30 (blue ...), 1.31 (mid red), 1.34 (pink ...), 1.347 (mid pink), 1.43 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
However, FerroChina is also trading closer and closer to the uptrend support (low blue), and we might see some action by the end of this week, when the uptrend support (low blue) meets the 1.26 neckline (green ...).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 1.26 (green ...), 1.25 (low blue), 1.22 (low pink, blue --), 1.18 (light blue --)
Resistance @ 1.30 (blue ...), 1.31 (mid red), 1.34 (pink ...), 1.347 (mid pink), 1.43 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Cosco 170608
Yesterday, Cosco broke the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) and short term downtrend resistance (mid red). However, we still see Cosco being kept in check by the 3.36 resistance neckline (green ...) and the uptrend resistance (mid blue).
If Cosco can trade above the uptrend support (low blue), there's a good chance we might see Cosco testing the 3.36 neckline again and maybe even break it soon.
However, if Cosco breaks the uptrend support (low blue) and downtrend support (mid red), we could see it testing the 3.26 support, or even the long term downtrend support (upp pink) again.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.29 (mid red), 3.27 (low blue), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.25 (upp pink), 3.17 (green)
Resistance @ 3.36 (green ...), 3.375 (mid blue), 3.44 (upp blue), 3.48 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
If Cosco can trade above the uptrend support (low blue), there's a good chance we might see Cosco testing the 3.36 neckline again and maybe even break it soon.
However, if Cosco breaks the uptrend support (low blue) and downtrend support (mid red), we could see it testing the 3.26 support, or even the long term downtrend support (upp pink) again.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.29 (mid red), 3.27 (low blue), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.25 (upp pink), 3.17 (green)
Resistance @ 3.36 (green ...), 3.375 (mid blue), 3.44 (upp blue), 3.48 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
China HongX 170608
Although China Hongxing broke both the downtrend support (low red) and uptrend support (low blue) early on in the day, it managed to recover and close just below the 2 downtrend resistance (low pink, upp grey-long term downtrend resistance).
China Hongxing may have closed on a higher, it also hit a new low today. And it will still be some time before we can see it trading above 50 cents.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.456 (low pink), 0.441 (low blue), 0.435 (low red), 0.415 (low grey), 0.392 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.462 (mid grey), 0.477 (upp blue), 0.485 (mid red, red --), 0.520 (upp pink, pink --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
China Hongxing may have closed on a higher, it also hit a new low today. And it will still be some time before we can see it trading above 50 cents.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.456 (low pink), 0.441 (low blue), 0.435 (low red), 0.415 (low grey), 0.392 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.462 (mid grey), 0.477 (upp blue), 0.485 (mid red, red --), 0.520 (upp pink, pink --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Semb Marine Research Report
by CIMB-GK (17 June)
Although Sembcorp Marine's year-to-date order flow has been slower at $19b versus Keppel Corp's $3.4b, we believe there is upside for orders in 2H2008, to meet our $5b target for the year.
There are two semi-submersible options outstanding from Atwood and Seadrill for delivery in 2011 and 2012 respectively. We are confident that these will be formalised soon.
We also believe a contract for Petrobas' mega-FPSO, P-62, could be finalised in the coming weeks, potentially boosting Sembcorp Marine's order book by US$1b.
In conjunction with our bullish view on the offshore and marine cycle supported by the deepwater drilling market, we are raising our order-win assumptions for Sembcorp Marine for FY2009-2010 by 14%-20%, to $4b and $3b respectively. This lifts our earnings estimate for FY2010 by 9%.
-Research Report by CIMB-GK (17 June)
Although Sembcorp Marine's year-to-date order flow has been slower at $19b versus Keppel Corp's $3.4b, we believe there is upside for orders in 2H2008, to meet our $5b target for the year.
There are two semi-submersible options outstanding from Atwood and Seadrill for delivery in 2011 and 2012 respectively. We are confident that these will be formalised soon.
We also believe a contract for Petrobas' mega-FPSO, P-62, could be finalised in the coming weeks, potentially boosting Sembcorp Marine's order book by US$1b.
In conjunction with our bullish view on the offshore and marine cycle supported by the deepwater drilling market, we are raising our order-win assumptions for Sembcorp Marine for FY2009-2010 by 14%-20%, to $4b and $3b respectively. This lifts our earnings estimate for FY2010 by 9%.
-Research Report by CIMB-GK (17 June)
Sunday, June 15, 2008
STX Pan Ocean 130608
Another typical dramatic week for STX Pan Ocean. From its peak of 4.00 on 20 may to the low of 2.70 today, STX Pan Ocean managed to shed 1.30 in less than a month, breaking a few important support levels along the way.
Will STX Pan Ocean hit the same lows as it did in mar? It's possible, if STX Pan Ocean breaks the 2.63 support (red ...). But I would not be surprised if STX Pan Ocean decides to fool everyone again and goes an upward spiral.
For monday :
Support @ 2.694 (low red), 2.63 (red ...), 2.60 (low red --), 2.50, 2.45, 2.32
Resistance @ 2.84 (mid red --), 2.90 (pink --), 2.94 (mid red), 2.97 (low blue), 3.05 (green --), 3.18 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
Will STX Pan Ocean hit the same lows as it did in mar? It's possible, if STX Pan Ocean breaks the 2.63 support (red ...). But I would not be surprised if STX Pan Ocean decides to fool everyone again and goes an upward spiral.
For monday :
Support @ 2.694 (low red), 2.63 (red ...), 2.60 (low red --), 2.50, 2.45, 2.32
Resistance @ 2.84 (mid red --), 2.90 (pink --), 2.94 (mid red), 2.97 (low blue), 3.05 (green --), 3.18 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you for your support !!
SGX 130608
SGX continued to weaken further after breaking the 7.40 support (pink --). However, it has managed to stay above the long term downtrend support (mid red), and uptrend support (low blue).
SGX looks to have formed a double-top formation, with peaks on 4 apr and 7 mar. Neckline is still the 7.40 support (pink --). So it'll be critical for SGX to stay above this support to have any chance of a recovery.
However, if SGX breaks the 7.40 support (pink --), and the long term downtrend support (mid red), the next support could be at the 7.00 level, where the long term downtrend support (low red) meets the downtrend support (low pink).
For monday :
Support @ 7.36 (low blue), 7.204 (mid red), 7.063 (low pink),
Resistance @ 7.40 (pink --), 7.63 (blue --), 7.73 (mid pink), 7.86 (upp blue), 8.00 (upp red, blue ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
SGX looks to have formed a double-top formation, with peaks on 4 apr and 7 mar. Neckline is still the 7.40 support (pink --). So it'll be critical for SGX to stay above this support to have any chance of a recovery.
However, if SGX breaks the 7.40 support (pink --), and the long term downtrend support (mid red), the next support could be at the 7.00 level, where the long term downtrend support (low red) meets the downtrend support (low pink).
For monday :
Support @ 7.36 (low blue), 7.204 (mid red), 7.063 (low pink),
Resistance @ 7.40 (pink --), 7.63 (blue --), 7.73 (mid pink), 7.86 (upp blue), 8.00 (upp red, blue ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Semb Marine 130608
After hitting a high of 4.73 on 1 jun, Sembcorp Marine has softened considerably, breaking the 4.40 support (pink ...) and 4.30 support (blue --). Sembcorp Marine almost tested the 4.12 support (green --) on 12 jun, however it managed to rebound slightly after testing the long term downtrend support (low pink).
We could see some consolidation for Sembcorp Marine next week, with the upside limited by the 4.30 resistance (blue --) and supported by the uptrend support (mid blue) and 4.12 support (green --).
If Sembcorp Marine breaks the 4.12 support (green --), the next support based on volume distribution, would be around the 3.99 level (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 4.20 (low light blue), 4.167 (mid blue), 4.15 (low pink), 4.12 (green --), 3.99 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 4.30 (blue --), 4.33 (mid light blue), 4.37 (mid pink), 4.40 (pink ...), 4.45 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
We could see some consolidation for Sembcorp Marine next week, with the upside limited by the 4.30 resistance (blue --) and supported by the uptrend support (mid blue) and 4.12 support (green --).
If Sembcorp Marine breaks the 4.12 support (green --), the next support based on volume distribution, would be around the 3.99 level (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 4.20 (low light blue), 4.167 (mid blue), 4.15 (low pink), 4.12 (green --), 3.99 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 4.30 (blue --), 4.33 (mid light blue), 4.37 (mid pink), 4.40 (pink ...), 4.45 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Olam 130608
After opening above the uptrend support (low blue), any chance of a rebound quickly evaporated as Olam again went below the uptrend support (low blue). Olam even broke the 2.48 support (blue ...), and almost close on the long term downtrend support (low pink).
If Olam opens below the 2.48 neckline (blue ...) on monday, we could see Olam breaking the long term downtrend support (low pink). We may also see Olam testing the 2.36 support (green ...) or even the 2.27 support (red ...).
If Olam opens above the 2.48 neckline (blue ...), we could see Olam trading withing the 2.48 support and 2.60 resistance (pink ...).
For monday :
Support @ 2.42 (low pink), 2.36 (low red, green ...), 2.27 (red ...)
Resistance @ 2.52 (upp red), 2.564 (low blue), 2.60 (pink ...), 2.62 (mid pink), 2.63 (pink --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
If Olam opens below the 2.48 neckline (blue ...) on monday, we could see Olam breaking the long term downtrend support (low pink). We may also see Olam testing the 2.36 support (green ...) or even the 2.27 support (red ...).
If Olam opens above the 2.48 neckline (blue ...), we could see Olam trading withing the 2.48 support and 2.60 resistance (pink ...).
For monday :
Support @ 2.42 (low pink), 2.36 (low red, green ...), 2.27 (red ...)
Resistance @ 2.52 (upp red), 2.564 (low blue), 2.60 (pink ...), 2.62 (mid pink), 2.63 (pink --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Ferro China 130608
After testing the 1.26 support (green ...) for the last 3 days, Ferro China finally broke it today, and closed right on the long term downtrend support (mid pink).
Going by FerroChina's past patterns, we could see it sliding further before there's any chance of it reversing up. The next volume support would be at around the 1.22 level (blue --). If that support breaks, I don't see much support for Ferro China below that anymore.
For monday :
Support @ 1.23 (mid pink), 1.22 (blue --), 1.18 (light blue --), 1.17 (low pink), 1.16 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.26 (green ...), 1.266 (low blue), 1.30 (blue ...), 1.32 (mid red), 1.34 (upp blue, pink ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Going by FerroChina's past patterns, we could see it sliding further before there's any chance of it reversing up. The next volume support would be at around the 1.22 level (blue --). If that support breaks, I don't see much support for Ferro China below that anymore.
For monday :
Support @ 1.23 (mid pink), 1.22 (blue --), 1.18 (light blue --), 1.17 (low pink), 1.16 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.26 (green ...), 1.266 (low blue), 1.30 (blue ...), 1.32 (mid red), 1.34 (upp blue, pink ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Cosco 130608
Although Cosco did not test the uptrend support (low blue) since 10 jun, it is still not out of the woods as Cosco has yet to break the 3.26 resistance (blue ...).
We could see some action next week when the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets 3.26 resistance (blue ...), and later in the week when the long term downtrend resistance meets the uptrend support (low blue).
Or we could see another round of short term uptrend, followed by a sudden sell-off, just like what happened from the beginning of may to the beginning of jun.
For monday :
Support @ 3.153 (low blue), 3.08 (red ...), 3.02 (low red), 3.00 (low pink)
Resistance @ 3.296 (upp pink), 3.304 (mid red), 3.313 (mid blue), 3.36 (green ...), 3.43 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
We could see some action next week when the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets 3.26 resistance (blue ...), and later in the week when the long term downtrend resistance meets the uptrend support (low blue).
Or we could see another round of short term uptrend, followed by a sudden sell-off, just like what happened from the beginning of may to the beginning of jun.
For monday :
Support @ 3.153 (low blue), 3.08 (red ...), 3.02 (low red), 3.00 (low pink)
Resistance @ 3.296 (upp pink), 3.304 (mid red), 3.313 (mid blue), 3.36 (green ...), 3.43 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
China HongX 130608
China Hongxing finally broke the long term downtrend support (mid grey) and the critical 0.485 neckline support (red --). It is now only the third time, since the beginning of 2007, that China Hongxing traded below the 0.485 neckline. The most recent time was in Mar 08, and before that, we had to go all the way back to Jan 07.
Based on the volume distribution, the next support for China Hongx could be at around the 0.425 level, although the volume support does not look to be as strong compared to the one at the 0.475 level.
If China Hongxing breaks the downtrend support (low red), we could see it testing a new low again. Or we could see China Hongxing staging a rebound if it hits the 0.425 support.
For monday :
Support @ 0.440 (low blue, low red), 0.425 (low grey), 0.397 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.471 (low pink, mid grey), 0.476 (upp blue), 0.485 (red --), 0.491 (mid red)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Based on the volume distribution, the next support for China Hongx could be at around the 0.425 level, although the volume support does not look to be as strong compared to the one at the 0.475 level.
If China Hongxing breaks the downtrend support (low red), we could see it testing a new low again. Or we could see China Hongxing staging a rebound if it hits the 0.425 support.
For monday :
Support @ 0.440 (low blue, low red), 0.425 (low grey), 0.397 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.471 (low pink, mid grey), 0.476 (upp blue), 0.485 (red --), 0.491 (mid red)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Friday, June 13, 2008
Olam Research Report
by DBS Group (12 June)
OLAM'S long-term growth should continue to be within the agri-commodities space in non-perishable products, as the group expands its reach, both in upstream sourcing and downstream distribution, into adjacent products and geographies.
Even as Olam grows its current customer base of over 4,000-strong, it is expanding and extending its sourcing capabilities and also investing more in secondary processing and logistics to enhance its margins.
Olam also reassured investors that its increasing asset intensity is not merely to expand its portfolio of hard assets, but is being embarked upon to achieve a higher rate of return than current returns and that any future investments into upstream or secondary processing assets will be carefully and similarly assessed.
To help achieve these goals, we believe Olam will continue with its merger and acquisition strategy, which counts eight acquisitions or joint ventures over the last 15 months, to complement its organic growth engine.
Having raised S$300 million worth of equity in a preferential rights offering and US$300 million in convertible bonds (up to US$400 million at Olam's option), all of which will help to lower interest costs prior to deployment into capital investments, we believe that the group is now well poised to make further value accretive acquisitions.
We maintain our TP which is based on 30 times fully diluted FY 2009 earnings, predicated on a price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 1, implying over 30 per cent upside from current levels.
We believe that the current share price level represents an attractive entry level for long-term investors and that with the substantial funding recently raised, acquisitions should act as catalysts for the stock to re-rate.
-Research Report by DBS Group (12 June)
OLAM'S long-term growth should continue to be within the agri-commodities space in non-perishable products, as the group expands its reach, both in upstream sourcing and downstream distribution, into adjacent products and geographies.
Even as Olam grows its current customer base of over 4,000-strong, it is expanding and extending its sourcing capabilities and also investing more in secondary processing and logistics to enhance its margins.
Olam also reassured investors that its increasing asset intensity is not merely to expand its portfolio of hard assets, but is being embarked upon to achieve a higher rate of return than current returns and that any future investments into upstream or secondary processing assets will be carefully and similarly assessed.
To help achieve these goals, we believe Olam will continue with its merger and acquisition strategy, which counts eight acquisitions or joint ventures over the last 15 months, to complement its organic growth engine.
Having raised S$300 million worth of equity in a preferential rights offering and US$300 million in convertible bonds (up to US$400 million at Olam's option), all of which will help to lower interest costs prior to deployment into capital investments, we believe that the group is now well poised to make further value accretive acquisitions.
We maintain our TP which is based on 30 times fully diluted FY 2009 earnings, predicated on a price/earnings to growth (PEG) ratio of 1, implying over 30 per cent upside from current levels.
We believe that the current share price level represents an attractive entry level for long-term investors and that with the substantial funding recently raised, acquisitions should act as catalysts for the stock to re-rate.
-Research Report by DBS Group (12 June)
Thursday, June 12, 2008
SPC Research Report
by DBS Group (11 June)
REFINING margins (Reuters' Singapore complex margin) continue to exhibit high volatility - it touched this year's low of US$4 per barrel (bbl) in early January and peaked at US$13.30/bbl in early April.
Margins averaged $6.90/bbl in Q1 2008 and US$8.80/bbl for the quarter to date. Current refining margins are hovering at US$7-9/bbl, supported by exceptionally strong middle distillate (diesel and jet fuel) crack spreads, but offset by soft petrol and fuel oil spreads.
Given seasonally strong refining margins in Q2 2008 and the strong crude oil price, Singapore Petroleum Company's (SPC) quarterly results should peak in Q2 2008. We expect it to book US$8.50/bbl refining margin, up from US$7/bbl in Q1 2008 but below the $9.50/bbl in Q2 2007.
Exploration and production performance should also be boosted by strong crude price; we expect Brent crude to average US$118/bbl in Q2 2008, up from US$97/bbl in Q1 2008. Net profit should jump 81 per cent q-o-q (but flat y-o-y) to $177 million.
We raised FY 2008-09 forecast net profit by 8.4 per cent and 10.1 per cent, respectively, to reflect current strong crude prices, but maintain our refining margin assumptions.
At the current price, SPC is attractive for the following reasons: limited downside risk from current level, strong Q2 2008 results should be near-term share price catalyst, attractive dividend yield of 10 per cent, and 30 per cent upside.
The counter is trading at a 2008 P/E of only 6 and an enterprise value (EV)/Ebitda multiple of just 4.2 versus regional peers' (excluding-Japan) 2008 P/E of 8.7 and EV/Ebitda multiple of 5.7.
-Research Report by DBS Group (11 June)
REFINING margins (Reuters' Singapore complex margin) continue to exhibit high volatility - it touched this year's low of US$4 per barrel (bbl) in early January and peaked at US$13.30/bbl in early April.
Margins averaged $6.90/bbl in Q1 2008 and US$8.80/bbl for the quarter to date. Current refining margins are hovering at US$7-9/bbl, supported by exceptionally strong middle distillate (diesel and jet fuel) crack spreads, but offset by soft petrol and fuel oil spreads.
Given seasonally strong refining margins in Q2 2008 and the strong crude oil price, Singapore Petroleum Company's (SPC) quarterly results should peak in Q2 2008. We expect it to book US$8.50/bbl refining margin, up from US$7/bbl in Q1 2008 but below the $9.50/bbl in Q2 2007.
Exploration and production performance should also be boosted by strong crude price; we expect Brent crude to average US$118/bbl in Q2 2008, up from US$97/bbl in Q1 2008. Net profit should jump 81 per cent q-o-q (but flat y-o-y) to $177 million.
We raised FY 2008-09 forecast net profit by 8.4 per cent and 10.1 per cent, respectively, to reflect current strong crude prices, but maintain our refining margin assumptions.
At the current price, SPC is attractive for the following reasons: limited downside risk from current level, strong Q2 2008 results should be near-term share price catalyst, attractive dividend yield of 10 per cent, and 30 per cent upside.
The counter is trading at a 2008 P/E of only 6 and an enterprise value (EV)/Ebitda multiple of just 4.2 versus regional peers' (excluding-Japan) 2008 P/E of 8.7 and EV/Ebitda multiple of 5.7.
-Research Report by DBS Group (11 June)
Olam 110608
After hiting a high of 3.19 on 30 may, Olam plunge 55 cents to close at 2.58 today. Olam formed a Dragonfly Doji on 9 jun. Since the trend prior to the Doji was a downtrend, it should have indicated a reverse of the downtrend (i.e. a Bullish Dragonfly Doji). However, the trading next 2 days proved otherwise.
On the otherhand, if we had looked at the trend since since the low of 1.62 on 20 mar, Olam had been on the uptrend since, meaning that the Doji was indicating a Bearish Dragonfly Doji. Was the drop yesterday and today an exception? Or a prelude of more of the same ?
The next few days could give us a clue. If Olam breaks the 2.48 support (blue ...), and then the 2.36 support (green ...), it could strengthen the momentum of the downtrend as indicated by the Dragonfly Doji on 9 jun.
If Olam manages to consolidate on either of the 2 supports, we could see Olam pushing up even higher. But I guess if there really was a consolidation, it would be for a long period.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 2.53 (low blue), 2.485 (low pink), 2.48 (blue ...), 2.414 (low red), 2.36 (green ...)
Resistance @ 2.56 (upp red), 2.60 (pink ...), 2.63 (upp pink, pink --), 2.74 (red --), 2.78 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
On the otherhand, if we had looked at the trend since since the low of 1.62 on 20 mar, Olam had been on the uptrend since, meaning that the Doji was indicating a Bearish Dragonfly Doji. Was the drop yesterday and today an exception? Or a prelude of more of the same ?
The next few days could give us a clue. If Olam breaks the 2.48 support (blue ...), and then the 2.36 support (green ...), it could strengthen the momentum of the downtrend as indicated by the Dragonfly Doji on 9 jun.
If Olam manages to consolidate on either of the 2 supports, we could see Olam pushing up even higher. But I guess if there really was a consolidation, it would be for a long period.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 2.53 (low blue), 2.485 (low pink), 2.48 (blue ...), 2.414 (low red), 2.36 (green ...)
Resistance @ 2.56 (upp red), 2.60 (pink ...), 2.63 (upp pink, pink --), 2.74 (red --), 2.78 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Ferro China 110608
Ferro China is another counter that gapped down at the beginning of the week, breaking the 1.44 support (red ...), the long term downtrend support (mid pink) on 9 jun, and even testing and closing right on the downtrend support (mid red) and the 1.34 support (pink ...).
The next 2 days were worse - FerroChina broke at least 2 volume supports, and is now resting on the 1.26 support (green ...). I've got a feeling we may see Ferro China testing the long term downtrend support (low red) soon.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 1.27 (low blue), 1.26 (green ...), 1.24 (low pink), 1.22 (blue --), 1.18 (light blue --), 1.17 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.30 (blue ...), 1.33 (mid red), 1.34 (pink ...), 1.38 (mid pink), 1.407 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
The next 2 days were worse - FerroChina broke at least 2 volume supports, and is now resting on the 1.26 support (green ...). I've got a feeling we may see Ferro China testing the long term downtrend support (low red) soon.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 1.27 (low blue), 1.26 (green ...), 1.24 (low pink), 1.22 (blue --), 1.18 (light blue --), 1.17 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.30 (blue ...), 1.33 (mid red), 1.34 (pink ...), 1.38 (mid pink), 1.407 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Cosco 110608
As if seeing Cosco gapping down and breaking the downtrend support (mid red) at the beginning of the week wasn't enough, we saw Cosco breaking the 3.26 support (blue ...) and downtrend support (mid pink, low red) yesterday.
It was only today that we saw Cosco recovering a little. Although Cosco is now above the downtrend support (low red, mid pink), it closed just below the 3.26 support (blue ...).
If Cosco breaks the uptrend support (low blue), we could see it testing the 3.08 support (red ...), or even the long term downtrend support (low pink).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.19 (low red), 3.13 (mid pink, low blue), 3.08 (red ...), 2.94 (low pink)
Resistance @ 3.26 (blue ...), 3.29 (upp pink, mid blue), 3.32 (mid red), 3.36 (green ...), 3.40 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
It was only today that we saw Cosco recovering a little. Although Cosco is now above the downtrend support (low red, mid pink), it closed just below the 3.26 support (blue ...).
If Cosco breaks the uptrend support (low blue), we could see it testing the 3.08 support (red ...), or even the long term downtrend support (low pink).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.19 (low red), 3.13 (mid pink, low blue), 3.08 (red ...), 2.94 (low pink)
Resistance @ 3.26 (blue ...), 3.29 (upp pink, mid blue), 3.32 (mid red), 3.36 (green ...), 3.40 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
China HongX 110608
After breaking the 0.580 support (blue --) on 6 jun, China Hongxing gapped down on opening at the beginning of the week. China Hongxing even broke the 0.535 (light blue --) and 0.520 (pink --) supports.
China Hongxing closed right on the downtrend support (low pink) today, and just below another downtrend support (low red). China Hongxing is now very close to the long term downtrend support (low grey) and the 0.485 support (red --). If these 2 supports break, we could see China Hongxing hitting the low (0.405) of 20 mar again.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.495 (low blue, low red), 0.487 (low pink), 0.485 (red --) 0.4835 (low grey)
Resistance 0.520 (pink --), 0.525 (upp blue), 0.535 (light blue --), 0.550 (mid pink)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
China Hongxing closed right on the downtrend support (low pink) today, and just below another downtrend support (low red). China Hongxing is now very close to the long term downtrend support (low grey) and the 0.485 support (red --). If these 2 supports break, we could see China Hongxing hitting the low (0.405) of 20 mar again.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.495 (low blue, low red), 0.487 (low pink), 0.485 (red --) 0.4835 (low grey)
Resistance 0.520 (pink --), 0.525 (upp blue), 0.535 (light blue --), 0.550 (mid pink)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
BakerTech 110608
After hitting the 0.325 resistance (red --) on 6 jun, Baker Tech again failed to build on the uptrend momentum, and has been trading sideways since, and finding temporary support at the 0.305 level (pink ...).
If we were to assume history repeats itself, we could see BakerTech trading sideways at least until next week, when the long term downtrend resistance (red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at around the 0.307 level, which would be the average number of days (9-12 days) between the high volume days.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.305 (pink ...), 0.302 (low blue), 0.300 (blue ...), 0.2975 (low pink), 0.290 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.313 (red), 0.315 (mid pink, pink --), 0.325 (upp pink, red --), 0.329 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
If we were to assume history repeats itself, we could see BakerTech trading sideways at least until next week, when the long term downtrend resistance (red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at around the 0.307 level, which would be the average number of days (9-12 days) between the high volume days.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.305 (pink ...), 0.302 (low blue), 0.300 (blue ...), 0.2975 (low pink), 0.290 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.313 (red), 0.315 (mid pink, pink --), 0.325 (upp pink, red --), 0.329 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Sunday, June 8, 2008
SGX 060608
Ever since SGX broke the 8.95 support (red --) on 20 may, it has been on a downtrend, and SGX also broke the 8.24 support (green --) on 26 may. Afterwhich, SGX has tested the critical 7.94 support (blue ...) 3 times.
If the 7.94 support breaks, we could see SGX testing the 7.64 support (blue --), then the next support would be at the 7.40 support (green ...). If SGX breaks the 7.40 support, which is also near the long term downtrend support (low red), we could see a repeat of the downtrend in march.
For monday :
Support @ 7.94 (blue ...), 7.82 (low pink), 7.64 (blue --), 7.50 (low red), 7.40 (green ...)
Resistance @ 8.20 (low blue, mid pink), 8.24 (green --), 8.31 (upp red), 8.43 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
If the 7.94 support breaks, we could see SGX testing the 7.64 support (blue --), then the next support would be at the 7.40 support (green ...). If SGX breaks the 7.40 support, which is also near the long term downtrend support (low red), we could see a repeat of the downtrend in march.
For monday :
Support @ 7.94 (blue ...), 7.82 (low pink), 7.64 (blue --), 7.50 (low red), 7.40 (green ...)
Resistance @ 8.20 (low blue, mid pink), 8.24 (green --), 8.31 (upp red), 8.43 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Olam 060608
What a difference it has been for Olam ! After breaking the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) and hitting a high of 3.19 on 30 may, Olam dropped 46 cents to close at 2.73 today, which is below the 2.74 support (red --).
If Olam opens below the 2.74 support (red --) on monday, we could see Olam testing the long term downtrend support (low pink). Another possible scenario is that we could see Olam trading between the 2.74 support (red --) and long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) for next week.
If that happens, we could see the turning point somewhere during the end of next week, where the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at around the 2.79 level.
For monday :
Support @ 2.73 (low green), 2.69 (low pink), 2.63 (pink --), 2.60 (pink ...)
Resistance @ 2.74 (low blue, red --), 2.80 (mid pink), 2.85 (upp green), 2.96 (upp blue), 2.97 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
If Olam opens below the 2.74 support (red --) on monday, we could see Olam testing the long term downtrend support (low pink). Another possible scenario is that we could see Olam trading between the 2.74 support (red --) and long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) for next week.
If that happens, we could see the turning point somewhere during the end of next week, where the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at around the 2.79 level.
For monday :
Support @ 2.73 (low green), 2.69 (low pink), 2.63 (pink --), 2.60 (pink ...)
Resistance @ 2.74 (low blue, red --), 2.80 (mid pink), 2.85 (upp green), 2.96 (upp blue), 2.97 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Ferro China 060608
Afer since breaking the 1.52 support (light blue --) on 1 june, Ferro China continued to weaken and trade within the downtrend channel (red). FerroChina has also broken the uptrend support (low blue).
Ferro China is now trading closer and closer to the 1.44 support (red ...). And if Ferro China breaks the long term downtrend support (low pink), we could see FerroChina testing the 1.36 support (pink ...), or even the 1.30 support (blue ...).
We would have to wait for a reversal indicator to signal a reversal in the downtrend.
For monday :
Support @ 1.45 (low red), 1.44 (red ...), 1.403 (low pink), 1.39, 1.36 (pink ...), 1.30 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 1.49 (mid pink), 1.50 (mid red), 1.51 (upp blue), 1.52 (light blue --), 1.55 (blue --), 1.57 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Ferro China is now trading closer and closer to the 1.44 support (red ...). And if Ferro China breaks the long term downtrend support (low pink), we could see FerroChina testing the 1.36 support (pink ...), or even the 1.30 support (blue ...).
We would have to wait for a reversal indicator to signal a reversal in the downtrend.
For monday :
Support @ 1.45 (low red), 1.44 (red ...), 1.403 (low pink), 1.39, 1.36 (pink ...), 1.30 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 1.49 (mid pink), 1.50 (mid red), 1.51 (upp blue), 1.52 (light blue --), 1.55 (blue --), 1.57 (upp blue)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Cosco 060608
Although Cosco opened above the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink), there was more selling than buying and we saw Cosco closing below the downtrend resistance.
If Cosco can continue to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see Cosco testing the 3.48 resistance (blue --). However, if Cosco opens below the 3.36 support (green ...) on monday, we would most likely see Cosco revisiting the 3.26 support (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 3.37 (low blue), 3.36 (upp pink, green ...), 3.338 (low red), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.09
Resistance @ 3.46 (upp blue), 3.48 (blue --), 3.50 (mid red), 3.60 (upp red), 3.62 (red --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
If Cosco can continue to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see Cosco testing the 3.48 resistance (blue --). However, if Cosco opens below the 3.36 support (green ...) on monday, we would most likely see Cosco revisiting the 3.26 support (blue ...).
For monday :
Support @ 3.37 (low blue), 3.36 (upp pink, green ...), 3.338 (low red), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.09
Resistance @ 3.46 (upp blue), 3.48 (blue --), 3.50 (mid red), 3.60 (upp red), 3.62 (red --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
China HongX 060608
China Hongxing broke the 0.580 support (blue --) and uptrend support (low blue) on 5 june. It also tested the long term downtrend support (low red) twice - on 5 and 6 june. China Hongxing seems to have found temporary support at 0.565 but based on the volume distribution, I don't think that support is strong.
The next major support based on volume distribution would be at around the 0.535 level (light blue --). If that support breaks, we might see China Hongxing testing new lows like it did in march.
For monday :
Support @ 0.564 (low red), 0.543 (low grey), 0.535 (light blue --), 0.530 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.575 (upp pink), 0.580(blue --), 0.588 (low blue), 0.590 (mid red, green --), 0.610 (upp blue, blue ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
The next major support based on volume distribution would be at around the 0.535 level (light blue --). If that support breaks, we might see China Hongxing testing new lows like it did in march.
For monday :
Support @ 0.564 (low red), 0.543 (low grey), 0.535 (light blue --), 0.530 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.575 (upp pink), 0.580(blue --), 0.588 (low blue), 0.590 (mid red, green --), 0.610 (upp blue, blue ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Saturday, June 7, 2008
BakerTech 060608
After spending almost 2 weeks trading around the 0.305 support line (pink ...), Baker Tech finally broke the downtrend resistance (mid pink), and 0.315 neckline (pink --). BakerTech also broke the uptrend resistance (upp blue).
As usual, Baker Tech could not break the 0.325 resistance (red --) and closed just below it. Will history repeat itself? Or would Baker Tech finally be able to break the 0.325 resistance (red --)?
For BakerTech to have any chance of testing the 0.325 resistance again next week, it would have to continue to trade at least above the 0.315 support (pink --), and/or above the uptrend support (upp blue).
For monday :
Support @ 0.3162 (upp blue), 0.315 (pink --), 0.312 (mid pink), 0.305 (pink ...), 0.3023 (low blue)
Resistance @ 0.325 (red --), 0.3267 (upp pink, low green), 0.330, 0.3388 (upp green), 0.340 (red ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
As usual, Baker Tech could not break the 0.325 resistance (red --) and closed just below it. Will history repeat itself? Or would Baker Tech finally be able to break the 0.325 resistance (red --)?
For BakerTech to have any chance of testing the 0.325 resistance again next week, it would have to continue to trade at least above the 0.315 support (pink --), and/or above the uptrend support (upp blue).
For monday :
Support @ 0.3162 (upp blue), 0.315 (pink --), 0.312 (mid pink), 0.305 (pink ...), 0.3023 (low blue)
Resistance @ 0.325 (red --), 0.3267 (upp pink, low green), 0.330, 0.3388 (upp green), 0.340 (red ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful. Thank you !!
Sky Petrol Research Report
by DMG & Partners (3 June)
Revenue for the 1Q2008 increased 92% y-o-y from $5.1m to $9.7m mainly due to the two added business segments of extraction and drilling Services. NPAT, however, only increased by 10% y-o-y for the period.
This boiled down to lower gross profit margins (which cannot be directly compared to 1Q2007 due to change in business segments) and higher finance costs from the convertible bonds with US-based Apollo Management.
Gross margins for 1Q2008 fell 15.9 ppt from 61.9% to 46%. In light of Sky China Petrol's difficulties faced towards expanding the number of oil wells it can work on, coupled with normalising margins and our assumptions of subsiding oil prices, we have lowered out revenue estimates by 10.5% from $53.5m to $47.9m, and EPS estimates by 39.1% from 7.8 cents to 4.8 cents in FY2008.
This lowers our 12-month target price to a PER multiple of 9 times.
-Research Report by DMG & Partners(3 June)
Revenue for the 1Q2008 increased 92% y-o-y from $5.1m to $9.7m mainly due to the two added business segments of extraction and drilling Services. NPAT, however, only increased by 10% y-o-y for the period.
This boiled down to lower gross profit margins (which cannot be directly compared to 1Q2007 due to change in business segments) and higher finance costs from the convertible bonds with US-based Apollo Management.
Gross margins for 1Q2008 fell 15.9 ppt from 61.9% to 46%. In light of Sky China Petrol's difficulties faced towards expanding the number of oil wells it can work on, coupled with normalising margins and our assumptions of subsiding oil prices, we have lowered out revenue estimates by 10.5% from $53.5m to $47.9m, and EPS estimates by 39.1% from 7.8 cents to 4.8 cents in FY2008.
This lowers our 12-month target price to a PER multiple of 9 times.
-Research Report by DMG & Partners(3 June)
Olam Research Report
by DBS Group (5 June)
Olam announced that it is issuing US$300m of convertible bonds, which would increase to US$400m at the company's option. Bearing an annual interest rate of 1%, a yield-to-maturity of 4.5% per annum and with a conversion price of $3.8464 or c. 29% premium to Olam's last closing price, these US$ convertible bonds will mature on 31 July 2013.
Given that the issue was multiple times oversubscribed, we have assumed that Olam will exercise its option to issue up to US$400m in convertible bonds, which represents potential dilution of c. 8.3%.
Whilst we have cut our target price to $3.51 (still based on 30 times FY2009 earnings) to factor in the potential dilution from the issue of these convertible bonds, we would look to raise our target price when Olam announces more value accretive acquisitions and/or as the Group delivers on its earnings growth.
-Research Report by DBS Group (5 June)
Olam announced that it is issuing US$300m of convertible bonds, which would increase to US$400m at the company's option. Bearing an annual interest rate of 1%, a yield-to-maturity of 4.5% per annum and with a conversion price of $3.8464 or c. 29% premium to Olam's last closing price, these US$ convertible bonds will mature on 31 July 2013.
Given that the issue was multiple times oversubscribed, we have assumed that Olam will exercise its option to issue up to US$400m in convertible bonds, which represents potential dilution of c. 8.3%.
Whilst we have cut our target price to $3.51 (still based on 30 times FY2009 earnings) to factor in the potential dilution from the issue of these convertible bonds, we would look to raise our target price when Olam announces more value accretive acquisitions and/or as the Group delivers on its earnings growth.
-Research Report by DBS Group (5 June)
Friday, June 6, 2008
China Hongx Research Report
China Hongxing Sports
by Kim Eng Research (5 June)
Succeeding at home and abroad: We recently received questions from clients about: 1) whether higher export sales in Q1 2008 suggest less management focus on the domestic market; and 2) whether higher overheads related to current ongoing programmes for store upgrading (revenue discounts) and store lease advance programmes will be temporary or permanent.
What's all the fuss about exports? Export mix in Q1 2008 was higher at 20 per cent of total sales compared to 12 per cent in 2007. The reasons for this are: 1) seasonality, 2) more apparel sales versus previous years, and 3) new overseas markets (eg Brazil, Vietnam, Ecuador, etc). Amidst this, domestic sales still reassuringly grew more than 35 per cent y-o-y.
Domestic sales should accelerate in H2 2008 and reduce the export mix: The higher exports certainly do not mean management is paying less attention to the domestic market, as can be seen from the higher spending on advertising & promotions this year (20 per cent versus 15 per cent in 2007). However, exports serve as a useful valve to keep capacity fully utilised and are opportunistically channelled to demand hotspots.
Vitally, export margins exceed domestic margins due to zero advertising & promotional costs. Also, as export markets are price-takers, we do not expect average selling price growth, currently projected at 5-6 per cent in 2008, to be capped at anything less.
Expansion-related overheads are temporary: China Hongxing currently has two store-related incentive programmes:
a one billion yuan (S$197 million) disbursement programme to secure the leases of premium locations for mid-sized stores (100-200 sq m versus the average of 67 sq m), which they aim to complete before August 2008 (499 million yuan already disbursed); and
a 200 million yuan sales discount programme to incentivise distributors to upgrade older stores, which will end in Q1 2009. Normally, distributors are required to self-fund store upgrades every three years, but the current round is ahead of schedule.
Already seeing positive returns: China Hongxing aims to have 420 mid-sized stores opened by August 2008 (183 opened as at end-Q1 2008). Normally, it takes about six months for each store to reach six million to eight million yuan in revenue per annum, which will allow each store to be self-sustaining.
So far, the trend has been encouraging, with some stores reaching the targeted revenue within 4-5 months. We expect the revenue impact of the expanded floor space to be felt more in H2 2008, as the new stores will need to stock up on inventory.
-Research Report by Kim Eng Research (5 June)
by Kim Eng Research (5 June)
Succeeding at home and abroad: We recently received questions from clients about: 1) whether higher export sales in Q1 2008 suggest less management focus on the domestic market; and 2) whether higher overheads related to current ongoing programmes for store upgrading (revenue discounts) and store lease advance programmes will be temporary or permanent.
What's all the fuss about exports? Export mix in Q1 2008 was higher at 20 per cent of total sales compared to 12 per cent in 2007. The reasons for this are: 1) seasonality, 2) more apparel sales versus previous years, and 3) new overseas markets (eg Brazil, Vietnam, Ecuador, etc). Amidst this, domestic sales still reassuringly grew more than 35 per cent y-o-y.
Domestic sales should accelerate in H2 2008 and reduce the export mix: The higher exports certainly do not mean management is paying less attention to the domestic market, as can be seen from the higher spending on advertising & promotions this year (20 per cent versus 15 per cent in 2007). However, exports serve as a useful valve to keep capacity fully utilised and are opportunistically channelled to demand hotspots.
Vitally, export margins exceed domestic margins due to zero advertising & promotional costs. Also, as export markets are price-takers, we do not expect average selling price growth, currently projected at 5-6 per cent in 2008, to be capped at anything less.
Expansion-related overheads are temporary: China Hongxing currently has two store-related incentive programmes:
a one billion yuan (S$197 million) disbursement programme to secure the leases of premium locations for mid-sized stores (100-200 sq m versus the average of 67 sq m), which they aim to complete before August 2008 (499 million yuan already disbursed); and
a 200 million yuan sales discount programme to incentivise distributors to upgrade older stores, which will end in Q1 2009. Normally, distributors are required to self-fund store upgrades every three years, but the current round is ahead of schedule.
Already seeing positive returns: China Hongxing aims to have 420 mid-sized stores opened by August 2008 (183 opened as at end-Q1 2008). Normally, it takes about six months for each store to reach six million to eight million yuan in revenue per annum, which will allow each store to be self-sustaining.
So far, the trend has been encouraging, with some stores reaching the targeted revenue within 4-5 months. We expect the revenue impact of the expanded floor space to be felt more in H2 2008, as the new stores will need to stock up on inventory.
-Research Report by Kim Eng Research (5 June)
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Dourthe Barrel Select - Saint Emilion
Bought a bottle of Dourthe Barrel Select - St Emilion from NTUC Fairprice a few weeks back. Read from several wine critics that 2005 was a good year for Bordeaux wines so decided to open today and try it.
Colour was quite dark. Initially, the tanning was rather strong and it was also a little dry. I drank the wine over two hours. Towards the end, the wine became smoother and less dry. Quite a good wine actually. But I feel it this wine could be cellared for at least another few years as suggested on their label.
I would give it 6/10 intially, with 6.5/10 towards the end. I feel it would be at least a 7/10 if cellared for another few more years.
This is what I read on the bottle :
"Dourthe is one of Bordeaux's leading producers with a world renowned reputation for producing fine quality wines, be it for their brands or their own estates.
Dourthe's winemaker selected this wine from only the vineyards with the finest terriors and potential. This strict selection and one year's ageing in new oak barrels explain the incomparable elegance and finess of this St-Emilion.
Dourthe Barrel Select St-Emilion is a luscious, rich wine with delicious, elegant notes of red fruits and spices. On the palate, it is silky smooth, full of finess and beautifully balanced with an excellent structure.
This wine is ideal with meat dishes, cheese, and makes a perfect barbeque partner. It can be drunk now and over the next 3 to 5 years.
Varietals : 30% Cabernet Franc and Cabernet Sauvignon, 70% Merlot
For further information, you can visit http://www.dourthe.com/
Colour was quite dark. Initially, the tanning was rather strong and it was also a little dry. I drank the wine over two hours. Towards the end, the wine became smoother and less dry. Quite a good wine actually. But I feel it this wine could be cellared for at least another few years as suggested on their label.
I would give it 6/10 intially, with 6.5/10 towards the end. I feel it would be at least a 7/10 if cellared for another few more years.
This is what I read on the bottle :
"Dourthe is one of Bordeaux's leading producers with a world renowned reputation for producing fine quality wines, be it for their brands or their own estates.
Dourthe's winemaker selected this wine from only the vineyards with the finest terriors and potential. This strict selection and one year's ageing in new oak barrels explain the incomparable elegance and finess of this St-Emilion.
Dourthe Barrel Select St-Emilion is a luscious, rich wine with delicious, elegant notes of red fruits and spices. On the palate, it is silky smooth, full of finess and beautifully balanced with an excellent structure.
This wine is ideal with meat dishes, cheese, and makes a perfect barbeque partner. It can be drunk now and over the next 3 to 5 years.
Varietals : 30% Cabernet Franc and Cabernet Sauvignon, 70% Merlot
For further information, you can visit http://www.dourthe.com/
Cosco 030608
Cosco couldn't maintain its uptrend momentum and broke the 3.36 support (green ...) today, and also closed below the uptrend support (low blue) and downtrend support (mid red).
If Cosco opens below the 3.36 resistance (green ...), and fails to break it, we could see Cosco softening further to consolidate around the 3.26 support (blue ...).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.32, 3.26 (green ...), 3.23 (low red), 3.18
Resistance @ 3.36 (low blue, mid red, green ...), 3.43 (upp pink), 3.47 (mid blue), 3.48 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful !!
If Cosco opens below the 3.36 resistance (green ...), and fails to break it, we could see Cosco softening further to consolidate around the 3.26 support (blue ...).
For tomorrow :
Support @ 3.32, 3.26 (green ...), 3.23 (low red), 3.18
Resistance @ 3.36 (low blue, mid red, green ...), 3.43 (upp pink), 3.47 (mid blue), 3.48 (blue --)
Hope you find my analysis helpful !!
China HongX 030608
China Hongx continues to make new lows, and we even saw it breaking the 0.580 support (blue --) and testing the downtrend support (low red) today, before closing just 1 bid above the 0.580 support.
After falling below the 0.590 support (green --), China Hongx could find it difficult to break it. It would be even more difficult if it closes below the 0.580 support (blue --), or even break the downtrend support (low red).
Next support based on volume distribution for China Hongx looks to be around the 0.570 - 0.575 level.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.580 (mid pink, low blue, blue --), 0.572 (low red), 0.560 (low grey), 0.553 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.590 (green --), 0.600 (mid blue, upp pink, mid red), 0.610 (blue ...), 0.627 (upp blue), 0.635 (green ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful !!
After falling below the 0.590 support (green --), China Hongx could find it difficult to break it. It would be even more difficult if it closes below the 0.580 support (blue --), or even break the downtrend support (low red).
Next support based on volume distribution for China Hongx looks to be around the 0.570 - 0.575 level.
For tomorrow :
Support @ 0.580 (mid pink, low blue, blue --), 0.572 (low red), 0.560 (low grey), 0.553 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.590 (green --), 0.600 (mid blue, upp pink, mid red), 0.610 (blue ...), 0.627 (upp blue), 0.635 (green ...)
Hope you find my analysis helpful !!
Sunday, June 1, 2008
China Sky 300508
After forming a Gravestone Doji on 27 may, China Sky saw heavy volume traded on 29 and 30 may, with support at the 1.03 level (blue ...).
Since the it was a downtrend prior to the Gravestone Doji, we could see a trend reversal for China Sky soon. For that to happen, we would first have to see China Sky trading above the uptrend support (low green), and breaking the 1.07 neckline (green ...).
If China Sky breaks the uptrend support (low green) and 1.03 support (blue ...), we could see China Sky testing the 1.00 support (blue --).
For monday :
Support @ 1.03 (blue ...), 1.00 (low pink, blue --)
Resistance @ 1.035 (low green), 1.047 (upp red), 1.055 (upp pink), 1.07 (green ...), 1.085 (low pink --)
Good Luck !!
Since the it was a downtrend prior to the Gravestone Doji, we could see a trend reversal for China Sky soon. For that to happen, we would first have to see China Sky trading above the uptrend support (low green), and breaking the 1.07 neckline (green ...).
If China Sky breaks the uptrend support (low green) and 1.03 support (blue ...), we could see China Sky testing the 1.00 support (blue --).
For monday :
Support @ 1.03 (blue ...), 1.00 (low pink, blue --)
Resistance @ 1.035 (low green), 1.047 (upp red), 1.055 (upp pink), 1.07 (green ...), 1.085 (low pink --)
Good Luck !!
Cosco 300508
Cosco today managed to break the downtrend resistance-turned support (mid red) with volume (compared to 29 may). Cosco also closed right on the uptrend resistance (mid blue).
If Cosco can open above the downtrend support (mid red) on monday, and break the uptrend resistance (mid blue), next resistance based on volume distribution looks to be around the 3.43 level. And after that, at the 3.48 - 3.50 level (blue --).
If Cosco can break the 3.48 - 3.50 level with substantial volume on monday, there's a good chance for a reversal as it would have broken the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink).
For monday :
Support @ 3.37 (mid red), 3.36 (green ...), 3.33 (low blue), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.24 (low red)
Resistance @ 3.434 (mid blue), 3.48 (upp pink, blue --), 3.584 (upp blue), 3.62 (red --), 3.64 (upp red)
Good Luck !!
If Cosco can open above the downtrend support (mid red) on monday, and break the uptrend resistance (mid blue), next resistance based on volume distribution looks to be around the 3.43 level. And after that, at the 3.48 - 3.50 level (blue --).
If Cosco can break the 3.48 - 3.50 level with substantial volume on monday, there's a good chance for a reversal as it would have broken the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink).
For monday :
Support @ 3.37 (mid red), 3.36 (green ...), 3.33 (low blue), 3.26 (blue ...), 3.24 (low red)
Resistance @ 3.434 (mid blue), 3.48 (upp pink, blue --), 3.584 (upp blue), 3.62 (red --), 3.64 (upp red)
Good Luck !!
Ferro China 300508
Nothing much has changed for Ferro China since 28 may as it is still unable to break the long term downtrend resistance (mid pink). However, FerroChina looks to have found temporary support around the 1.50 - 1.52 region (light blue --).
The next support for Ferro China, based on volume distriubtion, looks to be around the 1.47 level. After that, the next support would be 1.44 (red ...).
For FerroChina to have any chance of a rebound, it would first have to break the 1.55 resistance (blue --).
For monday :
Support @ 1.52 (mid red, light blue --), 1.47 (low red), 1.44 (low pink, red ...)
Resistance @ 1.528 (low blue, mid pink), 1.55 (blue --), 1.627 (upp blue), 1.637 (upp pink), 1.672 (upp red)
Good Luck !!
The next support for Ferro China, based on volume distriubtion, looks to be around the 1.47 level. After that, the next support would be 1.44 (red ...).
For FerroChina to have any chance of a rebound, it would first have to break the 1.55 resistance (blue --).
For monday :
Support @ 1.52 (mid red, light blue --), 1.47 (low red), 1.44 (low pink, red ...)
Resistance @ 1.528 (low blue, mid pink), 1.55 (blue --), 1.627 (upp blue), 1.637 (upp pink), 1.672 (upp red)
Good Luck !!
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