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Indofood Agri 220409

2009-04-22T21:15:00.002+08:00

Did you follow my analysis for Indofood Agri on 9 apr? If you had, you would probably have caught Indofood Agri as it surged past the 0.770 resistance (pink ...), and tested the 0.860 resistance (green ...) on 15/16 apr.

Indofood Agri today again broke the 0.860 neckline (green ...) with volume, testing the 0.895 resistance (blue --) briefly before settling right on the 0.860 neckline again.

We could see Indofood Agri trade sideways again, as it did on the previous 3 occassions before surging up. If Indofood Agri can continue to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see it test the 0.895 resistance (blue --), provided Indofood Agri also stays above the 0.860 support (green ...).

As you can see from the chart, the 0.875 could be the immediate resistance for Indofood Agri as it is where the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (mid blue).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.860 (green ...), 0.835 (mid green), 0.830 (mid blue, low red), 0.815 (red ...), 0.795 (green --), 0.770 (pink --)

Resistance @ 0.875, 0.895 (blue --), 0.900 (upp red, upp green), 0.915 (upp blue), 0.925

Cosco 220409

2009-04-22T20:50:00.002+08:00

After my analysis on 15 apr, Cosco went on to hit and exceeded the 11 dec high by 1 cent (1.17 vs 1.18). It seems that the chances of history repeating itself are increasing as Cosco went on to break the crucial 1.10 support on 20 apr.

If you look back to the dec period, after again breaking the 1.10 support, Cosco first traded sideways for about slightly more than 2 weeks, before collasping on 9 jan.

As you can see from the chart, the next crucial support for Cosco would be at 1.05 (lightblue --) where you can see quite a number of trendlines converging at that level. If this support breaks, we could see Cosco heading for the 0.995 (green ...) to 1.00 (blue --) level.

However, if Cosco can maintain at least above the 1.03 support (red --), we may see Cosco re-writing history.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.05 (mid blue, lightblue --), 1.04 (mid green, low red), 1.03 (red --), 1.00 (blue --), 0.995 (green ...), 0.965 (low pink, red ...)

Resistance @ 1.06 (mid pink), 1.08 (green --), 1.09 (mid red), 1.10 (blue ...), 1.1055 (upp blue), 1.11 (upp green), 1.12 (upp pink, pink --), 1.17 (upp red, lightblue ...)

China Hongx 220409

2009-04-22T20:22:00.002+08:00

Today is the first time China Hongxing tested the 0.130 support (blue ...) since it broke out from it on 9 apr. As mentioned on 15 apr, the 0.145 (pink --) and 0.150 (pink ...) level saw the highest volume done that day, which is also evident on the volume distribution chart on the left.

What this could mean is that there are alot of stale bulls being caught, unless they've already squared off their positions when China Hongxing broke the 0.145 support yesterday.

As you can see fron the chart, the long term downtrend support (mid pink) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 0.130 support (blue ...). If this crucial support breaks, we could see China Hongxing re-visiting the 0.115 support (green --).

The other scenario could see China Hongxing trade sideways between the 0.130 support (blue ...) and 0.145 resistance (pink --) as it attempts to build a base.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.130 (blue ...), 0.125 (lightblue ...), 0.120 (red ...), 0.115 (green --), 0.110 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.1375 (mid blue), 0.145 (pink --), 0.150 (pink ...), 0.1525 (upp blue, upp pink), 0.155 (blue --), 0.160 (red --)

Cosco 150409

2009-04-15T21:53:00.002+08:00

After my analysis on 9 apr, Cosco blew away all the major resistance and closed right on the 1.12 neckline (pink --) today. Most of the trades were done at 1.04, with buy ups and sell downs split half. The 2nd most trades were done at 1.12, again, with ups and sell downs split half.

Cosco is coming close to testing the 1.17 high it hit on 11 dec 08. Prior to that high, Cosco was also on a similar surging run which saw it rocket from a low of 0.655 on 21 nov, to a high of 1.17 on 11 dec. That is a whopping 0.515 climb in 14 trading days !

Although Cosco's run now is quite similar, the difference is that it took Cosco almost twice the time this round.

Would we see history repeat itself?

For that to happen, Cosco would first have to break the crucial 1.10 support (blue ...).

However, if Cosco manages to stay above the 1.10 support, we could see it trade sideways between the uptrend channel (blue or green) as it attempts to build a base.

Anymore upside in the short term would probably be limited to the 1.17 high of 11 dec.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.10 (blue ...), 1.08 (mid pink, mid blue, mid green), 1.05 (low red, lightblue --), 1.03 (red --), 1.00 (blue --), 0.990 (green ...), 0.965 (red ...), 0.950 (green --)

Resistance @ 1.12 (pink --), 1.13 (upp red, upp blue, upp green), 1.15 (upp pink), 1.17 (lightblue ...)

China Hongx 150409

2009-04-15T21:17:00.002+08:00

If you had followed my analysis on 09 apr, you would have been able to catch China Hongxing as it surged pass the 0.130 resistance (blue ...) yesterday. Volume done today (179m) was the highest since 23 mar (184m). A massive 419 trades with a total of 112,503 lots were done at the 0.150 level, with with more than 2/3 being buy ups. A total of 20,933 lots were done at 0.155, with all being buy ups.

Since China Hongxing has broken the price from where it plunged (0.135 on 24 feb), this has now become the support for China Hongxing, as indicated by the uptrend support (mid blue) and also the downtrend support (mid pink). The 0.150 could be the immediate support as almost half of the trades today were done at this level.

If China Hongxing manages to break the 0.155 resistance (blue --), there's still 2 more small resistances at the 0.160 (red --) and 0.165 (green --) levels. However, if these 2 resistance break as well, the next resistance could be seen at 0.180 (lightblue --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.150 (upp blue), 0.145 (pink --), 0.137 (mid blue), 0.135 (mid pink), 0.130 (blue ...), 0.125 (lightblue ...), 0.120 (red ...), 0.118 (low blue, low pink)

Resistance @ 0.150 (upp blue), 0.153 (upp pink), 0.155 (blue --), 0.160 (red --), 0.165 (green --), 0.180 (lightblue --)

Straits Asia 090409

2009-04-12T10:25:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 0.895 support (green --) and testing the crucial 0.865 support (blue ...) yesterday, Straits Asia managed to recover and even came close to test the 0.935 resistance (green ...). However, Straits Asia did not manage to close above the 0.915 resistance (blue --), which is quite formidable, based on the volume distribution bar.

If Straits Asia can maintain trading above the uptrend support (mid blue), we could see it trade sideways between the 0.935 resistance (green ...) and 0.895 support (green --) as it attempts to build a base.

If this happens, we could see some action towards the end of the week as the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (mid blue) at the 0.910 resistance (blue --).

However, if Straits Asia breaks the 0.895 support (green --), we could see it test the 0.865 support (blue ...) again. And if the 0.865 support breaks as well, we could see Straits Asia revisit the 0.825 support (pink --) eventually.

For monday :

Support @ 0.895 (green --), 0.885 (mid blue, pink ...), 0.875 (red --), 0.865 (mid red, blue ...), 0.845 (red ...), 0.840 (low red), 0.825 (pink --)

Resistance @ 0.915 (blue --), 0.925 (upp blue), 0.935 (upp red), 0.940 (green ...), 0.975

Semb Marine 090409

2009-04-12T09:58:00.002+08:00

After trading below the 2 uptrend supports (mid green, mid blue) yesterday, Sembcorp Marine recovered and even managed to close above the short-term uptrend resistance (upp blue). It also closed right on the 2.15 neckline (pink ...).

As you can see from the chart, the 2.15 neckline could prove a tough nut to crack. So we could see Sembcorp Marine trade sideways between the 2.04 support (blue ...) and 2.15 neckline (pink ...) as it builds a base.

If Sembcorp Marine can maintain trading within the short-term uptrend channel (blue), we could see it test the 2.15 neckline probably towards the end of the week.

If the 2.04 support breaks, we could see Sembcorp Marine revisit the 1.93 support (blue --), which is where the short-term uptrend support (low blue) meets the long term downtrend support (mid red).

For monday :

Support @ 2.15 (pink ...), 2.10 (mid blue), 2.07 (mid green), 2.04 (blue ...), 2.00 (red ...), 1.97 (mid red, red --), 1.93 (blue --), 1.90 (pink --), 1.87 (lightblue --), 1.86 (low blue, low red)

Resistance @ 2.15 (pink ...), 2.16 (upp blue, upp red), 2.17 (upp green), 2.25 (green ...), 2.35 (green --)

Raffles Education 090409

2009-04-11T16:24:00.002+08:00

Raffles Education finally managed to close above 0.415 neckline (blue ...) after testing it a few times over the last few days. It even tested the 0.430 resistance (red ...) today.

Most trades (137 trades) were done at 0.425 (8,547 lots - with about 3/4 are buy ups). 2nd most trades (133 trades) done at 0.415 (with about 60% buy ups).

The 0.430 resistance could prove a little difficult to break as both the downtrend resistance (upp red) and uptrend resistance (mid blue) meets there. If Raffles Education manages to stay above the 0.415 support (blue ...), we could see it trade sideways between 0.415 and 0.430 as it attempts to build a base.

If the 0.415 support breaks, we could see Raffles Education re-test the 0.400 support (green --).

If Raffles Education breaks the 0.430 resistance (red ...), we might see it go all the way and test the 0.455 resistance (blue --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.415 (blue ...), 0.410 (lightblue ...), 0.405 (mid red), 0.400 (green --), 0.392 (low blue), 0.380 (low red, green ...)

Resistance @ 0.425 (mid blue), 0.430 (red ...), 0.432 (upp red), 0.440 (upp blue, red --), 0.455 (blue --)

Olam 090409

2009-04-11T15:56:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 1.59 neckline (red --) and testing the 1.55 support (red ...) yesterday, Olam managed to recover and closed above the 1.59 neckline and short-term uptrend support (mid blue).

Olam has been on the uptrend since the beginning of march, bursting into life on 2 apr after trading sideways the week before that.

If Olam breaks the 1.59 support (red --), we could see it trading between the 1.53 support (blue ...) and 1.59 neckline (red --).

However, if Olam and stay above the 1.59 support, we could see it trading sideways also, but between the 1.59 support (red --) and 1.65 resistance (pink ...). And if Olam can trade within the uptrend channel (blue), we might even see it test the 1.65 resistance towards the end of the week.

For monday :

Support @ 1.59 (mid blue, red --), 1.57 (mid red), 1.56 (mid green), 1.55 (red ...), 1.53 (blue ...), 1.51 (low red), 1.48 (low blue, green --)

Resistance @ 1.61 (lightblue --), 1.62, 1.65 (pink ...), 1.67 (upp blue, blue --), 1.69 (upp green, upp red)

Noble Group 090409

2009-04-11T15:07:00.002+08:00

The chart for Noble Group is a little bit colourful. Let's first look at the big picture.

The red trendlines indicate long term downtrend, the pink ones indicate short-term downtrend, the green indicates long term uptrend, and the blue ones indicate short-term uptrend.

Let's now take a closer look.

Noble Group was trading within a tight 3 cent range today, which was not quite its usual trading range. Almost 3/4 of its trades (455 trades) were done at the 1.24 level (12,004 lots - with almost the same amount of buy ups and sell downs, and 1 married deal of 1,400 lots).

After breaking the long term downtrend support (mid red) yesterday, Noble Group managed to recover today and traded above this support, and also tested the short-term uptrend resistance (mid blue) and short-term downtrend resistance (mid pink). However, it failed to break the 1.25 neckline (blue --) convincingly.

As you can see from the chart, 4 trendlines (low pink, low blue, mid green, mid red) converge at about the 1.215 level. So this could mean that the 1.22 / 1.21 support could be crucial. If this support breaks, we could see Noble Group re-testing the 1.20 support (blue ...), or even the 1.18 support (red --).

However, if Noble Group can continue to trade within the 2 uptrend channels, and stay above the 1.22 support (red ...), we could see it test the 1.25 neckline (blue --) soon, and maybe even the 1.27 resistance (green --). Any upside would probably be limited to the 1.31 resistance (green ...).

For monday :

Support @ 1.22 (low red, red ...), 1.216 (low pink), 1.21 (low blue, mid green), 1.20 (blue ...), 1.18 (red --)
Resistance @ 1.25 (mid pink, blue --), 1.27 (mid blue, green --), 1.287 (upp green), 1.31 (upp red, green ...), 1.32 (upp blue), 1.33 (upp pink)

Indofood Agri 090409

2009-04-10T23:05:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 0.715 support (lightblue --) yesterday, Indofood Agri reversed and even broke the 0.740 resistance (pink --) with volume today. Most trades (146) were done at 0.760 (7,022 lots) with 2nd most trades (137) done at 0.745 (6,191 lots). Overall, there were more buy ups (21,409 lots) than sell downs (15,532 lots).

What this means is that we could be looking at 0.745 being the support and 0.760 being the resistance for Indofood Agri the time being.

If Indofood Agri can maintain trading within the uptrend channels (blue, green) and stay above the 0.740 support (pink --), there's a good chance we might see it test the 0.770 resistance (pink ...) again towards the end of the week when the uptrend support (mid blue) meets the 0.770 neckline (pink ...).

However, if the 0.740 support breaks, we could see Indofood Agri retreat back to the 0.715 support (lightblue --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.740 (pink --), 0.732 (mid green), 0.725 (mid blue), 0.715 (mid red, lightblue --), 0.685 (low red, red --)

Resistance @ 0.755 (upp blue), 0.770 (upp red, pink ...), 0.785 (upp green), 0.790 (green --), 0.815 (red ...)

Golden Agri 090409

2009-04-10T22:19:00.003+08:00

Golden Agri broke the 0.310 (red ...) and 0.320 (green ...) resistances today, although with volume that was just a third more than yesterday's. Golden Agri is still trading within the uptrend channel (blue).

Golden Agri has been on the uptrend since the beginning of march, so we might see some profit taking next week. This could mean Golden Agri trading sideways between the 0.310 support (red ...) and 0.320 neckline (green ...).

We could also see Golden Agri consolidating around the 0.315 level as the uptrend support (mid blue) meets the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) sometime next week.

For monday :

Support @ 0.322 (upp red), 0.320 (green ...), 0.315, 0.310 (mid blue, red ...), 0.305 (red --), 0.302 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.330 (pink --), 0.335 (upp blue), 0.340 (blue --)

Cosco 090409

2009-04-10T21:50:00.002+08:00

Cosco just about managed to stay within the 3 uptrend channels (blue, green and pink) today, after breaking the 3 uptrend supports (mid pink, mid green, and mid blue) yesterday. More importantly, Cosco managed to stay above the 0.950 support (green --).

However, both the uptrend supports (mid pink and mid green) meets the 0.950 support (green --) in the coming week so we could see the 0.950 support being severely tested. If this support breaks, we could see Cosco re-visiting the 0.930 support (lightblue ...), or even the crucial 0.910 support (blue ...). If the 0.910 support breaks as well, we could be looking at the uptrend reversing for Cosco.

Another possible scenario could see Cosco attempt to build a base by trading sideways between the 0.930 support (lightblue ...) and 0.965 resistance (red ...). Any upside would be limited to the 0.990 neckline (green ...) as most of the uptrend resistancesa well as the downtrend resistance (upp red), meet there too.

If Cosco manages to stay above the 0.930 or 0.950 supports, we could see it test the 0.990 neckline (green ...) soon.

For monday :

Support @ 0.950 (green --), 0.935 (mid pink, mid green, mid blue), 0.930 (lightblue ...), 0.910 (blue ...), 0.895 (low red), 0.880 (low pink, lightblue --)

Resistance @ 0.965 (red ...), 0.973 ( upp green), 0.990 (upp blue, upp pink, green ...), 1.00 (upp red, blue --), 1.03 (red --)

China Hongx 090409

2009-04-10T21:30:00.002+08:00

The last time China Hongxing tested the 0.130 neckline (blue ...) was back in on 25 feb. Afterwhich, it went tumbling and hit a low of 0.060 on 12 mar. We could see some resistance at the 0.130 neckline for the coming week.

If China Hongxing can maintain trading within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see it test the 0.130 neckline again. Or it could trade sideways between 0.12o (red ...) and 0.130 as it attempts to build a base. Any break in the 0.130 resistance could see China Hongxing test the 0.145 neckline (pink --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.122 (mid blue), 0.120 (red ...), 0.115 (pink ...), 0.110 (lightblue --), 0.108 (low blue, low pink), 0.105 (green --)

Resistance @ 0.130 (blue ...), 0.135 (upp blue), 0.145 (pink --), 0.155 (blue --)

ST Engineering 270309

2009-03-28T17:42:00.003+08:00

Ever since hitting a low 2.06 on 17 feb, ST Engrg has been climbing steadily, culminating in its testing of the 2.50 resistance (red ...) today.

We could be looking at ST Engrg trading sideways as it tries to build a base, similar to what it did at the beginning of the year. We could be looking trades between the 2.44 support (pink ...) and 2.50 resistance (red ...).

If ST Engrg can continue to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), we might see it consolidate at the 2.48 level, which is where the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the short term uptrend support (mid green) sometime towards the end of next week.

However, if ST Engrg fails to break the 2.50 resistance by next week, we could see it revisit the 2.40 support (pink --), or even the 2.38 support (blue ...).

For monday :

Support @ 2.44 (low blue, pink ...), 2.43 (mid red), 2.42 (mid green), 2.40 (pink --), 2.39 (low red), 2.38 (blue ...), 2.36 (blue --)

Resistance @ 2.48 (red --), 2.50 (red ...), 2.506 (upp red, upp blue), 2.515 (upp green), 2.52, 2.54

Semb Marine 270309

2009-03-28T17:18:00.002+08:00

A day after my analysis on 20 mar, Sembcorp Marine burst into life and went on a blistering run, breaking several key resistances along the way! It tested the key 1.93 resistance (blue ...) today but closed 1.90 neckline (pink --).

We could see Sembcorp Marine trade sideways due to inevitable profit-taking. We could see it trade between the 1.87 support (lightblue --) and 1.93 resistance (blue ...). We could also see Sembcorp Marine consolidate around the 1.87 level, which is where the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) somewhere towards the end of next week.

If Sembcorp Marine can trade above the uptrend support (low blue), there's a good chance we might see it attempt to test and break the 1.93 resistance (blue ...).

However, if Sembcorp Marine breaks the 1.82 support (lightblue ...), we could see it revisit the 1.74 support (red ...), or even the 1.69 support (blue --).

For monday :

Support @ 1.90 (pink --), 1.87 (lightblue --), 1.84 (low blue), 1.82 (lightblue ...), 1.79 (mid red), 1.78 (red --), 1.77 (upp green), 1.74 (red ...), 1.69 (blue --)

Resistance @ 1.93 (upp red, blue ...), 1.94 (mid blue), 1.97 (upp blue)

Raffles Education 270309

2009-03-28T16:15:00.002+08:00

What a week for Raffles Education! After my analysis on 20 mar, it went on to test the 0.430 resistance (red ...) and 0.440 resistance (red --) on 21 mar. Just 1 day later, it went from almost breaking the 0.440 resistance, to a free-fall, breaking the 0.415 support (blue ...).

The next few days even saw Raffles Education breaking the 0.395 support (blue --) with volume. The last 3 days saw Raffles Education hitting a base of 0.385, and just about keeping its head above the uptrend support (low blue), forming a Doji today.

One possible scenario is for Raffles Education to trade between the 0.380 support (green ...) and the 0.395 resistance (blue --), provided it doesn't break the 0.380 support.

However, if the 0.380 support breaks, we could be looking at Raffles Education heading towards the 0.370 support (lightblue --), and eventually, the 0.360 support (lightblue ...).

Any upside would most likely be restricted to the 0.400 resistance (green --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.385 (low blue), 0.380 (green ...), 0.3735 (low red), 0.370 (lightblue --), 0.360 (lightblue ...)
Resistance @ 0.395 (mid red, blue --), 0.400 (green --), 0.405, 0.415 (blue ...), 0.420 (mid blue), 0.430 (upp red, red ...)

Noble Group 270309

2009-03-27T23:52:00.002+08:00

Is it a false break for Noble Group?

Noble Group initially broke the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and 1.27 neckline (green --), and also tested the uptrend resistance (upp blue). However, things took a dramatic twist after lunch and Noble Group reversed to test the 1.21 support (blue ...), closing just above the major supports.

As you can see from the chart, Noble Group just about maintained trading within the uptrend channel (blue). However, the 1.21 could be crucial for Noble Group as we can see that the long term downtrend support (low red), and uptrend support (low blue), meets there.

If the 1.21 support breaks, we may see Noble Group trying to hold its ground at the 1.20 level, where the long term downtrend support (low red) meets the downtrend support (mid pink).

If Noble Group can hold onto these 2 supports, we could see it try to establish a base by trading sideways between 1.20/1.21 and the 1.25 resistance (blue --). At most, Noble Group could test the 1.27 neckline (green --).

For monday :

Support @ 1.21 (low blue, low red, blue ...), 1.20 (mid pink), 1.18 (red --), 1.16 (upp green), 1.15 (low pink)
Resistance @ 1.23, 1.25 (upp pink, blue --), 1.27 (green --), 1.305 (upp red, upp blue)

Cosco 270309

2009-03-27T23:18:00.003+08:00

After my analysis on 25 mar, Cosco broke through several key resistance and also tested the uptrend resistance (upp blue). However, Cosco couldn't build on the momentum and tested the 0.830 support (blue --) today, and also closed right on the 0.840 support (green ...).

Next week could be crucial for Cosco as we see whether it can break the 0.860 level convincingly. As you can see from the chart, the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the 2 uptrend resistances (upp blue, upp green) at about the 0.860 level.

If Cosco does not break 0.860, we could see it test the 0.830 (blue --) and 0.820 (red --) supports.

If Cosco manages to clear 0.860, there's another formidable roadblock at the 0.870 level (pink --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.840 (green ...), 0.830 (blue --), 0.825 (mid green), 0.820 (red --), 0.815 (mid red, green --), 0.805 (lightblue ...)

Resistance @ 0.850 (red ...), 0.855 (upp green), 0.860 (upp blue, upp red), 0.870 (pink --)

Indofood Agri 250309

2009-03-25T23:16:00.002+08:00

Indofood Agri opened right on the 0.615 support (blue --) before surging up to test the uptrend resistance (upp blue). Indofood Agri closed just below the 2 downtrend resistance (red, upp pink).

Could Indofood Agri be attempting to build another base? Just like it did a week ago?

For that to happen, it would need to stay at least above the 0.605 support (green ...). Then, we could see Indofood Agri trade between the 0.605 support and 0.640 resistance (blue ...).

However, if the 0.605 support breaks, we might see Indofood Agri falling back to the 0.580 support (pink ...) or 0.575 support (red ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.630 (mid blue), 0.620 (mid pink, blue --), 0.605 (green ...), 0.600 (low pink, low blue), 0.580 (pink ...), 0.575 (upp green, red ...)

Resistance @ 0.630 (red), 0.635 (upp pink), 0.640 (blue ...), 0.660 (upp blue)

Cosco 250309

2009-03-25T22:56:00.002+08:00

Cosco just about stayed within the uptrend channel (green). Cosco also failed to convincingly break the 0.835 resistance (green ...) but managed to stay above the 0.805 support (lightblue ...).

This 0.805 support, as well as the 0.790 support (blue ...), would be crucial for Cosco if it wants to continue and maintain its uptrend momentum.

If these 2 supports break, we might see Cosco test the 0.755 support (green --).

For tomorrow:

Support @ 0.805 (mid green, lightblue ...), 0.790 (upp blue, blue ...), 0.780 (lightblue --), 0.765 (low red), 0.755 (green --)

Resistance @ 0.820 (red --), 0.830 (upp red), 0.835 (green ...), 0.845 (upp green), 0.870 (pink --)

Semb Marine 200309

2009-03-21T22:00:00.002+08:00

Three days after my analysis on 13 mar, Sembcorp Marine tested the 1.55 resistance (red ...), although it just about stayed above the crucial 1.49 support (blue --) after testing it twice on the last 2 days.

We could see Sembcorp Marine trade between the 1.49 support (blue --) and 1.55 resistance (red ...) for the time being as it tries to build a base. If Sembcorp Marine can also continue to trade within the uptrend channel (green), we could see it attempt to break the 1.55 resistance sooner rather than later.

For monday :

Support @ 1.49 (mid red, mid green, blue --), 1.46 (pink ...), 1.45 (mid blue), 1.44 (low red), 1.41 (low green, red --)

Resistance @ 1.55 (red ...), 1.56 (upp green, upp red), 1.58 (upp blue), 1.59 (green ...), 1.61 (green --)

Olam 200309

2009-03-21T21:08:00.002+08:00

After my analysis on 13 mar, Olam not only maintained its uptrend momentum, it also broke several resistance and tested the 1.41 neckline (pink --) thrice this week, closing right on the neckline today.

Will Olam continue to push higher and hit the 1.51 high of 12 feb?

If Olam cannot sustain this uptrend, we could be looking at a potential triple top forming, which means that the chances of Olam crashing (if the triple top completes) once it breaks the baseline support of 1.35 (lightblue --) is greatly increased.

For monday :

Support @ 1.39 (mid blue), 1.38 (red ...), 1.37 (mid green, pink ...), 1.35 (lightblue --), 1.33 (low red), 1.32 (blue ...), 1.30 (lightblue ...), 1.28 (red --)

Resistance @ 1.43 (upp green), 1.435 (upp red), 1.447 (upp blue), 1.48

Raffles Education 200309

2009-03-21T20:43:00.004+08:00

Raffles Edu just about managed to stay above the 0.400 support (green --) today. However, volume was extremely low (about 1.7k lots), compared to a volume of 37.6m lots done on 10 mar, a day after Raffles Edu broke the 0.400 support.

As you can see from the chart, the 0.400 level is quite an important support for Raffles Edu. If it can hold on to this support, we could see Raffles Edu attempt to build a base and test the 0.430 resistance (red ...).

If Raffles Edu breaks the 0.400 support (green --), we could see it re-visit the 0.380 support (green ...).

For monday :

Support @ 0.405, 0.400 (mid blue, green --), 0.395 (mid red), 0.383 (low red), 0.380 (green ...), 0.370 (low blue, lightblue --)

Resistance @ 0.415 (blue ...), 0.420 (upp red), 0.425 (red ...), 0.435 (upp blue), 0.440 (red --)

Noble Group 200309

2009-03-21T19:21:00.002+08:00

Are we looking at the beginning of another one of those surging runs of Noble Group?

Noble Group tested the 1.11 neckline (pink ...) today, as it broke and closed above the 1.08 resistance (pink --) for the 1st time since end feb.

As you can see from the chart, the lows of Noble Group continues to stay above the uptrend support (mid blue). We could see Noble Group trade between this support and the 1.11 neckline (pink ...) for the time being.

If Noble Group continues to trade within the uptrend channel, there's a great chance we might see it break the 1.11 neckline, maybe even by end of mar.

For monday :

Support @ 1.08 (pink --), 1.06 (mid blue), 1.05 (green ...), 1.03 (low blue, red ...), 1.02 (blue --)
Resistance @ 1.10 (red), 1.11 (pink ...), 1.115 (upp blue), 1.13

Indofood Agri 200309

2009-03-21T18:45:00.005+08:00

As mentioned in my analysis on 13 mar, the 0.575 support (red ...) for Indofood Agri seems to be holding for the time being. However, this support was also tested 3 times this week.

Is Indofood Agri building a base?

If you look at Indofood Agri during the mid feb period, it also appears to be building a base as it traded sideways, before going on a free fall. Will history repeat itself?

If Indofood Agri can hold on to at least the 0.565 support (green --) we could see it continue to trade sideways between the long term downtrend resistance (red) and the 0.565 support (green --).

Be cautious also as a Gravestone Doji was formed on 18 mar, which usually is a strong indication of an impending trend reversal. A break in these 2 support could see Indofood Agri testing at least the 0.545 support (pink --)

For monday :

Support @ 0.575 (red ...), 0.572 (low blue, upp green), 0.565 (low pink, green --), 0.545 (mid green, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.595 (red), 0.600 (upp pink), 0.605 (upp blue, green ...), 0.615 (blue --)

Cosco 200309

2009-03-21T18:16:00.004+08:00

Today is the first time in 5 days Cosco broke the 0.730 support (blue --). Cosco also tested the 0.715 support (red ...), the downtrend support (low red) and short term uptrend support (low green). However, Cosco managed to recover late into day to close above the 0.730 support.

It remains to be seen if Cosco can continue to stay above the 0.730 support as you can see the long term downtrend resistance (pink), meeting the 2 uptrend supports (mid blue, low green) at around the 0.723 level sometime next week.

For monday :

Support @ 0.730 (blue --), 0.717 (mid blue), 0.715 (low green, red ...), 0.705 (low red), 0.690 (pink --)
Resistance @ 0.745 (pink), 0.755 (green --), 0.760 (upp green), 0.765 (upp red), 0.780 (lightblue --)

Straits Asia 130309

2009-03-15T14:32:00.002+08:00

Just a day after my analysis on 27 feb, Straits Asia broke the crucial support of 0.795 (green --). The following day (28 feb) saw Straits Asia hit the 0.740 support (blue ...), which was just above the baseline support of 0.730 which I've calculated for the triple top formation.

Straits Asia rebounded immediately after testing the 0.740 support, and has now recovered to trade above the 0.795 neckline (green --).

For today's analysis, I've added a short term uptrend channel (green) and short term downtrend channel (red).

If Straits Asia can continue to trade above the 0.795 support (green --), we could see it break out of the 2 downtrend channels and even test 0.845 resistance (red ...).

For monday :

Support @ 0.808 (mid blue), 0.795 (green --), 0.784 (low red), 0.780 (low green), 0.775 (pink ...)
Resistance 0.815 (upp pink), 0.820 (upp red), 0.825 (pink --), 0.830 (upp green), 0.845 (red ...)

Semb Marine 130309

2009-03-15T14:09:00.003+08:00

After my last analysis on 27 feb, Smebcorp Marine broke the crucial 1.38 support (pink --), and traded sideways for about 2 weeks before coming to life today, closing above the other crucial neckline of 1.48 (blue --) with the highest volume since end feb.

As you can see from the chart, the 1.48 neckline (blue --) is very important for Sembcorp Marine as the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support mid blue). If it wants to sustain this positive momentum, Sembcorp Marine would have to continue to trade above the 1.48 neckline (blue --).

If Sembcorp Marine breaks the 1.48 neckline, we could see it sliding back to the 1.41 support (red --). However, if the support holds, we could see Sembcorp Marine test the 1.55 resistance (red ...) very soon.

For monday :

Support @ 1.48 (mid blue, blue --), 1.46 (pink ...), 1.44, 1.41 (red --), 1.38 (mid red, pink --)1.34 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.51 (upp red), 1.53 (upp blue), 1.55 (red ...), 1.59 (green ...) 1.61 (green --)

Olam 130309

2009-03-15T13:49:00.003+08:00

After breaking the neckline (lightblue ...) for the double top formation on 17 feb, Olam recovered to test this neckline in last than a month, and closed right on the downtrend resistance (upp red).

The following week could be crucial for Olam as it remains to be seen if its uptrend momentum could be sustained. The first crucial level would be at 1.28, which is where the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) and 1.28 neckline (red --).

If this support breaks, the next crucial support would be at 1.25 (green --). If Olam can trade above these 2 supports, there's a great chance we might see Olam test the 1.35 resistance (lightblue --).

However, if Olam breaks these 2 supports, we could then see it retreat back to the 1.15 support (blue --).

For monday :

Support @ 1.30 (upp red, lightblue ...), 1.28 (low blue, red --), 1.25 (green --), 1.22 (mid red, upp green, pink --), 1.17 (low red, pink ...), 1.15 (blue --), 1.14 (low green), 1.13 (green ...)

Resistance @ 1.32 (blue ...), 1.34 (upp blue), 1.35 (lightblue --), 1.38, 1.41

Noble Group 130309

2009-03-15T13:13:00.002+08:00

Noble Group indeed tested the 0.995 support (blue ...) the day after my analysis on 11 mar. It then recovered to test the 1.05 resistance (green ...) today. Noble Group has been trading sideways since end feb and is still in the uptrend channel (blue).

Will we see Noble Group bursting into life like it did in mid Jan ?

As you can see from the chart, the downtrend resistance (upp red), meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 1.025 level sometime next week. Which means we could see some action for Noble Group soon.

If Noble Group doesn't break the 0.995 support (blue ...) by then, there's a great chance we could see a repeat of the surging run in mid jan.

However, if the 0.995 support breaks, we could see Noble Group fall as dramatically, which isn't unusual for Noble Group.

For monday :

Support @ 1.03 (red ...), 1.02 (blue --), 1.00 (low blue), 0.995 (blue ...), 0.965 (mid red, green --), 0.935 (red --)
Resistance @ 1.05 (green ...), 1.06 (upp red), 1.08 (pink --), 1.10 (upp blue), 1.11 (pink ...)

Indofood Agri 130309

2009-03-14T23:59:00.003+08:00

What a run for Indofood Agri ever since hitting a low of 0.450 on 3 mar. However, I feel that Indofood Agri's great run has hit its peak as volume is drying up.

If you can read my analysis on 10 mar, I added a short term downtrend channel (pink) and Indofood Agri hit the short term downtrend resistance (upp pink) before closing just below it. This could also be an indication that the trend for Indofood Agri is turning.

Immediate support for Indofood Agri would be the 0.575 support (red ...). If Indofood Agri can hold onto this support, we could see it build a base and attempt to test the 0.605 resistance (green ...).

However, if Indofood Agri breaks the 0.575 support (red ...), I believe its drop would be as swift as it did in the 2nd half of feb.

For monday :

Support @ 0.575 (red ...), 0.5677 (mid pink, mid green), 0.565 (green --), 0.560 (mid blue), 0.548 (low red), 0.545 (pink --), 0.535 (lightblue --), 0.525 (low blue, red --), 0.520 (low pink), 0.505 (pink ...)

Resistance @ 0.595 (upp red, upp pink), 0.605 (upp blue, upp green, green ...), 0.615 (blue --), 0.640 (blue ...)

Cosco 130309

2009-03-14T23:40:00.003+08:00

Cosco initially opened below the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink), but that soon changed as Cosco surged past several necklines to test the 0.775 neckline (lightblue --) with the highest volume in a month.

As Cosco did not break the short term downtrend resistance (upp red), it remains to be seen if Cosco can maintain its momentum.

We could see Cosco trading between the 0.730 support (blue --) and 0.775 neckline (lightblue --) as it tries to build a base.

For monday :

Support @ 0.755 (green --), 0.735 (mid blue), 0.730 (blue --), 0.710 (red ...), 0.705 (mid red), 0.695 (upp pink)
Resistance @ 0.765 (upp red), 0.775 (lightblue --), 0.785 (upp blue), 0.790 (blue ...), 0.805, 0.820 (red --)

China Hongx 130309

2009-03-14T23:20:00.003+08:00

Although China Hongxing broke out from the short term downtrend resistance (upp red), it is still way below the level it was trading just a month ago.

The 0.065 level (red --) could be the support for China Hongxing for the time being as it tries to build a base.

The immediate resistance could be seen at the 0.09 neckline (blue --). We could be looking at China Hongxing trading between the 0.065 support (red --) and 0.08 neckline (lightblue --).

For monday:

Support @ 0.070 (upp red, red ...), 0.065 (mid pink, red --), 0.05 (low pink), 0.045 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.080 (lightblue --), 0.090 (upp pink, blue --), 0.105 (green --)

Noble Group 110309

2009-03-11T22:12:00.002+08:00

Noble Group today broke the uptrend support (low blue). It also came very close to testing the 0.995 support (blue ...).

We could be looking at Noble Group testing the 0.995 support (blue ...) soon.

For tomorrow:

Support @ 0.995 (blue ...), 0.980 (mid red), 0.965 (green --), 0.935 (red --), 0.915 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.02 (low blue, blue --), 1.03 (red ...), 1.05 (green ...), 1.075 (upp red), 1.08 (pink --)

Indofood Agri 100309

2009-03-10T23:37:00.002+08:00

Indofood Agri burst into life today with volume that was more than 4 times yesterday's. Buy ups outnumbered selldowns by about 2 to 1. Indofood Agri also broke the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) and the 0.525 neckline (red --).

I have included a short term downtrend channel (pink). As you can see Indofood Agri tested the 0.545 neckline (pink --) today, which was not far from where the downtrend resistance (mid pink) is.

If Indofood Agri manages to trade above the 0.525 neckline (red --), we could see it test the 0.565 neckline (green --) soon.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.545 (pink --), 0.535 (upp green), 0.525 (low pink, red --), .511 (upp red), 0.507 (mid green), 0505 (pink ...), 0.495 (green ...)

Resistance @ 0.545 (pink --), 0.558 (mid pink), 0.565 (green --), 0.575 (red ...)

Cosco 090309

2009-03-09T21:52:00.002+08:00

Cosco continues to trade within the long term (pink) and short term (red) downtrend channels. Although Cosco opened above the 0.715 support (red ...), it soon succumbed to selling pressure and closed below the 0.715 support.

Quite a lot of people could be caught when Cosco surged on 5 mar. However, since it closed that day on a low, it would have been a signal that the uptrend momentum may not be sustainable. The Doji on the following day (6 mar) would give you an idea to be prepared to cut loss.

If Cosco continues to remain weak, we could see it test 0.670 (pink --) again, which was the low on 3 mar. If that support breaks as well, we could see Cosco head towards the 0.655 level, which is where the 2 downtrend supports meet.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.690 (mid blue), 0.680 (low pink), 0.675 (low blue), 0.670 (low red, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.710 (upp blue), 0.715 (red ...), 0.730 (mid red, blue --), 0.745 (upp pink), 0.755 (green --)

Indofood Agri 060309

2009-03-06T22:20:00.002+08:00

Indofood Agri's fortunes took a dramatic twist within a few days. We were just talking about a possible trend reversal on 3 mar, and now Indofood Agri is trading below the 0.525 neckline (red --) again. Volume done today is not even half of yesterday's.

The 0.505 support (pink ...) again seems to be holding out quite well for the time being. We could be looking at Indofood Agri trading between the downtrend resistance (upp red) and uptrend support (mid green).

We could see some action next week as the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (mid green) at about the 0.495 neckline (green ...). If the 0.495 neckline breaks, we could see Indofood Agri make a swift visit to the 0.470 support (lightblue --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.505 (pink ...), 0.495 (mid green, green ...), 0.480 (mid red), 0.470 (lightblue --), 0.460 (blue ...), 0.455 (low green), 0.440 (low red)

Resistance @ 0.515 (upp red), 0.525 (upp green, red --), 0.545 (pink --), 0.555, 0.565 (green --)

Cosco 060309

2009-03-06T21:24:00.002+08:00

Cosco had a false breakout on 5 mar as it broke the 1st downtrend resistance (mid red) and tested the 0.755 (green --) and 0.775 (lightblue --) necklines. The uptrend momentum couldn't be sustained and Cosco traded below the 0.730 neckline (blue --) today, forming a Doji.

If Cosco breaks the uptrend support (mid blue), there's a danger it could slip back into the long term downtrend channel (pink). The 0.715 supports looks to be a critical support as the uptrend support (mid blue) meets the downtrend resistance (mid red) at this level sometime next week.

We could be looking at Cosco trading sideways between the 0.730 neckline (blue --) and uptrend support (mid blue). And if Cosco manages to trade above the uptrend support (mid blue), there's a good chance we might see some action next week.

If Cosco breaks the uptrend support, we would likely see a swift return to test the 0.670 support (pink --).

For monday :

Support @ 0.715 (red ...), 0.710 (mid blue), 0.690 (upp pink), 0.680 (low red), 0.670 (low blue, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.730 (blue --), 0.740 (mid red), 0.745 (upp blue), 0.755 (green --), 0.775 (lightblue --)

Indofood Agri 030309

2009-03-03T23:48:00.003+08:00

Indofood Agri opened low and closed high, almost engulfing yesterday. In candlestick, it's called Bullish Engulfing. Since Indofood Agri has been on the downtrend, this could signal an impending trend reversal.

In order to confirm the trend reversal, we would need a white candlestick tomorrow. Ideally, Indofood Agri gapping up and closing higher. This would give us another bullish pattern called the Three Outside Up, which is a stronger indicator of a trend reversal compared to the Bullish Engulfing.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.495 (green ...), 0.490 (mid green), 0.470 (lightblue --), 0.460 (low red, blue ...), 0.450 (low green)

Resistance @ 0.505 (pink ...), 0.510 (upp green), 0.525 (red --), 0.535 (upp red), 0.545 (pink --), 0.565 (green --)

Cosco 030309

2009-03-03T23:27:00.002+08:00

Cosco opened right on the 0.670 support (pink --) today. Although Cosco rebounded today to close above the downtrend support (low red), volume was lesser than yesterday's, so we might be looking at a technical rebound.

If Cosco manages to stay above the downtrend support (low red), we could see it trading between this support and the 0.720 neckline (red ...).

Another scenario could see Cosco trading between the downtrend support and 0.670 support (pink --), which I believe could be most likely.

As you can see from the chart, the 0.670 support is very important as 3 trendlines converge together with the volume support (pink --). So, if the 0.670 breaks, we could see Cosco test the 28 oct low of 60.5 cents at least.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.700 (low red), 0.680, 0.670 (blue, pink --), 0.643 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.720 (red ...), 0.730 (upp pink), 0.735 (mid red), 0.755 (green --), 0.775 (lightblue --)

Straits Asia 270209

2009-03-01T16:58:00.002+08:00

Straits Asia formed a triple top on 10 dec, 7 jan and 2 feb. The neckline support for this triple top formation is about 0.865 (red --), which would give us a baseline support for the triple top formation at 73 cents, just below the 0.740 support (blue ...). which Straits Asia almost tested on 23 feb.

However, there was a strong rebound the day after (24 feb) and we saw Straits Asia closing above the 0.820 resistance (pink --). There wasn't any momentum and 2 days later, which is today, we saw Straits Asia closing below the 0.820 level.

We might see Straits Asia trading between the 0.795 support (green --) and 0.820 resistance (pink --) for the time being.

What would be more crucial is if Straits Asia breaks the 0.795 support, as well as the 0.785 level (where 3 trendlines converge), it could mean a drop at least to the 0.740 support (blue ...).

For monday :

Support @ 0.795 (green --), 0.785 (pink ...), 0.775 (low blue), 0.750 (low pink), 0.740 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 0.820 (pink --), 0.825 (upp pink, upp blue), 0.845 (red ...), 0.865 (red --), 0.900 (blue --)

Golden Agri 270209

2009-03-01T16:30:00.002+08:00

Golden Agri formed a double top on 7 jan and 9 feb. I'll put the neckline support for this double top at 0.295 (pink ...), which means the baseline support for the double top is at around (red --).

Golden Agri has been trading sideways since mid feb and has also tested the 0.275 support (green ...) thrice.

As you can see from the chart, the longterm downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 0.280 level sometime next week. So we might expect some action for Golden Agri early next week.

If this support breaks, I feel we might see Golden Agri revisiting 0.260, which is the 15 jan low.

For monday :

Support @ 0.285 (upp red, green --), 0.278 (low blue), 0.275 (green ...), 0.255 (low red, red --)
Resistance @ 0.285 (upp red, green --), 0.293 (mid blue), 0.295 (pink ...), 0.305 (pink --), 0.307 (upp blue)

Semb Marine 270209

2009-03-01T16:06:00.002+08:00

Sembcorp Marine failed to break the 1.48 resistance (blue --) and even closed below the 1.41 support (red --).

As you can see from the chart, the uptrend support (low blue) meets the downtrend resistance (upp red) at 1.38, which is the opening/closing price on 24 feb. If Sembcorp Marine breaks below this level, we could see it retest Oct 08 lows.

For monday :

Support @ 1.37 (low blue), 1.33 (mid red), 1.24 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.44 (upp red), 1.48 (blue --), 1.535 (upp blue), 1.55 (red ...)

Olam 270209

2009-02-28T22:23:00.003+08:00

I have said on 25 feb that we might see a bit of rebound for Olam when it hits the 1.17 support (pink ...). Olam opened at 1.21 on 26 feb, tested the 1.17 support before closing again at 1.21. Olam opened right on the 1.17 support today before recovering to close above the 1.22 resistance (pink --). If you had traded within this range, you would have made some kopi money, congrats.

However, it is still too early to say if Olam's fortunes have turned as it has yet to test the double top neckline of 1.30 (lightblue ...). Olam might also meet some strong resistance at the 1.25/1.26 levels.

Nonetheless, if Olam continues to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), it's also an opportunity to make some kopi money.

For monday :

Support @ 1.22 (pink --), 1.20, 1.17 (low blue, pink ...), 1.15 (blue --), 1.12 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.25 (upp blue, green --), 1.27 (mid red), 1.28 (red --), 1.30 (lightblue ...), 1.32

Noble Group 270209

2009-02-28T21:48:00.002+08:00

Action for Noble group came earlier than expected when it broke the 1.08 resistance (pink --) on 26 feb. Volume done on that day was almost double the previous day's. However, Noble Group has yet to test the uptrend resistance (mid blue).

Moreover, there wasn't much momentum for Noble Group today as it opened above the 1.08 neckline and closed right on it. Most trades were done at the 1.07/1.08 prices with just slightly more being selldowns.

Interestingly, while about 20m were done in about 700 trades in the 1.07/1.08 price range, only 13 trades were done in the 1.09 price, amounting to almost 4m shares, and none were selldowns.

The 1.04 support remains crucial for Noble Group. If it can maintain trading above this support, as well as the downtrend support (mid red), we could see Noble Group attempt to test the uptrend resistance (mid blue) and downtrend resistance (upp red) soon.

If the 1.04 support breaks, we could see Noble Group re-visit the 0.995 support, the downs of Noble Group is usually swift.

For monday:

Support @ 1.05 (mid red), 1.04 (green --), 1.03 (low blue), 1.02 (red ...), 0.995 (blue ...), 0.965 (green --), 0.945 (low red)

Resistance @ 1.11 (mid blue), 1.14 (upp red), 1.17 (upp blue), 1.18 (blue --)

Cosco 270209

2009-02-28T17:01:00.003+08:00

Two days after my analysis (24 feb) on Cosco, it went on to test the 0.755 support (green --). If you had followed my blog, you'd have made some money shorting Cosco. And if you had waited just 2 more days (which is today), you'd have made even more as Cosco closed right on the 0.720 support (red ...).

Cosco continues to trade within the 2 downtrend channels (pink, red). If Cosco breaks the 0.720 support (red ...) we could see Cosco head towards the 0.670 level (pink --), which is where the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets the downtrend support (low red). And this level is also where Cosco formed the double bottom back oct and nov last year.

Near term support looks to be at around 0.700 (low red).

For monday:

Support @ 0.711 (mid red), 0.695 (low red), 0.670 (low pink, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.755 (upp pink, green --), 0.775 (lightblue --), 0.790 (blue ...), 0.815 (red --)

China Hongx 270209

2009-02-28T16:44:00.002+08:00

Third time China Hongxing tested the 0.105 level (green --) since 24 feb. Volume has also been decreasing since. Most of the trades were done at the 0.110 level (46m with 20m selldown and 26m buying up).

We could be looking at China Hongxing trading between the 0.105 support (green --) and 0.115 resistance (pink ...) for the near term. It could be some time before we see can see any chance of a recovery for China Hongxing.

For monday:

Support @ 0.105 (green --), 0.100 (upp red), 0.085 (mid red)
Resistance @ 0.115 (pink ...), 0.130 (low pink), 0.145 (pink --), 0.160 (upp pink, blue ...)

Semb Marine 250209

2009-02-25T22:09:00.003+08:00

Sembcorp Marine broke out from the downtrend resistance (upp red) with volume today. It ran smacked into the 1.48 resistance (blue --) before closing at 1.46, which coincidentally is the opening price on 18 and 20 feb.

If Sembcorp Marine manages to break the 1.48 resistance (blue --), we could see it 1.55 neckline (red ...). A bigger resistance looms at 1.61 (green --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.41 (upp red, red --), 1.36 (low blue), 1.26 (low red)
Resistance @ 1.48 (blue --), 1.52 (upp blue), 1.55 (red ...), 1.61 (green --),

Olam 250209

2009-02-25T21:32:00.003+08:00

Olam is another one of those that formed a double top (think i've lost count already). The 2 tops are on 5/6 jan (high of 1.49) and 12 feb (high of 1.51).

Neckline for the double top looks to be at the 1.30 level (lightblue ....). This would give us a support for the double top at about 1.09-1.10 (red ...), which is the low Olam hit on 9 and 24 dec.

Right now, Olam just about managed to stay above the uptrend support (low blue). If Olam manages to rebound, we could see Olam testing the 1.17 support (pink ...) first, before it rebounds. If this happens, we could see Olam test the 1.30 (lightblue ...) double top neckline again.

However, if the 1.17 support breaks, we could see Olam head eventually for the double top support of 1.09 - 1.10 (red ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.20 (low blue), 1.17 (pink ...), 1.15 (blue --), 1.143 (low red), 1.09-1.10 (red ...)
Resistance @ 1.22 (pink --), 1.25 (green --), 1.27 (upp blue), 1.28 (red --), 1.29 (mid red), 1.30 (lightblue ...)

Noble Group 250209

2009-02-25T20:47:00.002+08:00

Noble Group formed a double top on 7 jan (high of 1.26) and 12 feb (high of 1.25). Neckline for the double top looks to be at the 1.08 level (pink --), so that would give us a support from the double top to be about 90 cents.

Right now, Noble Group looks to be hanging on to the 0.995 support (blue...), which is quite a good support, and the volume bar shows too. Although its lows are higher, volume has been dropping over the past 3 days.

We could see Noble Group continue to trade within the downtrend resistance (mid red) and uptrend support (low blue) until some time next week when we could see some action for Noble Group as the downtrend resistance (mid red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 1.04 neckline (green ....).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.02 (low blue, red ...), 0.995 (blue ...), 0.965 (low red, green --), 0.935 (red --)
Resistance @ 1.04 (green ...), 1.07 (mid red), 1.08 (pink --), 1.095 (midblue), 1.11, 1.15 (upp blue)

Indofood Agri 250209

2009-02-25T20:26:00.002+08:00

Ever since breaking the 0.525 support (red --) on 20 feb, Indofood Agri has now tested the 0.505 support (pink ...) twice, barely trading within the uptrend support (low green).

As I've mentioned on 20 feb, the 0.505 support looks good for the time being. However, I do not know how long this support will hold. We could see some action soon, as the uptrend support catches up with the 0.505 support.

If the 0.505 support breaks, we could see Indofood Agri test the 0.495 support (green ...) first, then 0.485, which is the low on 23/24 dec, before Indofood Agri broke out and went on a surging run to 0.670.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.505 (low green, pink ...), 0.495 (green ...) , 0.485 (mid red), 0.470 (lightblue --), 0.460 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 0.525 (mid green, red --), 0.535, 0.545 (pink --), 0.550 (upp green), 0.560 (upp red), 0.565 (green --)

Cosco 240209

2009-02-24T23:29:00.004+08:00

Nothing much has changed for Cosco. Just updated the uptrend support trendlines. Cosco is still hanging on to the uptrend support (low blue) some how but I can sense that we should be seeing some action real soon.

AS you can see from the chart, the downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 0.775 neckline (lightblue --). If Cosco still does not break out from there, we could be looking at Cosco testing the 0.755 support (green --), or even the 0.720 support (red ...).

If Cosco does indeed break out, we could be looking at least for Cosco to test the 0.815 resistance (red --), and maybe a small probability of testing the 0.835 resistance (green ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.770 (low blue), 0.765 (mid red), 0.755 (green --), 0.720 (low red, red ...), 0.705 (low pink)

Resistance @ 0.775 (lightblue --), 0.790 (blue ...), 0.793 (upp pink), 0.805 (upp blue), 0.815 (red --), 0.835 (green ...)

China Hongx 240209

2009-02-24T23:00:00.005+08:00

The last time China Hongxing hit past the 200m volume was way back on 13 apr 2007. when it was still trading in the 70+ cents level. Now, it's in danger of falling below the 10 cents level. What a difference a week makes!

If it's any consolation, most of the volume was done at the 0.115 level (31m selldown, 42m buy up). I guess it's going to be very difficult for China Hongxing to even return to the 0.160 level (blue ...), which is from where it started free-falling.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.115 (pink ...), 0.105 (upp red), 0.09 (mid red), 0.075 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.135 (low pink), 0.145 (pink --), 0.160 (blue ...)

Indofood Agri 200209

2009-02-22T15:38:00.002+08:00

Indofoor Agri formed a double top on 7 jan and 10 feb. The neckline for this double top could be at 0.575 (red ...). What this means is that we could potentially see Indofood Agri a low of (0.670 - 0.570 = 0.10) 0.470 (lightblue --), which is where Indofood Agri broke out on 9 dec.

Indofood Agri broke the 0.575 neckline on 17 feb, and you can see it's fall was fast. Within 3 days, Indofood Agri hit the 0.525 support (red --). If this support breaks, the next support for Indofood Agri would be at 0.505 (pink ...) which is quite strong, based on the volume support bar.

However, if the 0.505 support breaks as well, I believe the fall would be swift and we would probably see Indofood Agri test the 0.470 (lightblue--) bottom within days.

Any rebound would probably be limited to the 0.560 level, which is where the uptrend support (low green) meets the downtrend resistance (upp red).

For monday :

Support @ 0.515, 0.505 (low red, pink ...), 0.495 (green ...), 0.470 (lightblue --)
Resistance @ 0.545 (pink --), 0.550 (low green), 0.565 (green --), 0.575 (red ...), 0.580 (upp red)

Cosco 200209

2009-02-22T14:58:00.002+08:00

Cosco ended the week still trading within the long term downtrend channel (pink). Cosco also tested the 0.775 support (lightblue --) before recovering to close right on the short term downtrend support (mid red).

The last time Cosco traded below the 0.800 level was end jan, before it embarked on a short run up to hit the 90s. The 0.775 support could be crucial as it was also from this level that Cosco broke out on 3 dec and went on a spring to 1.17 on 11 dec.

If the 0.775 support (lightblue --) breaks, we could see Cosco heading for the 0.720 support (red ...), which is also where the long term downtrend support (low pink) meets the short term downtrend support (low red).

Any rebound would be weak and limited to the 0.805 level, where the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets the uptrend support (low blue).

For monday :

Support @ 0.780 (mid red), 0.775 (lightblue --), 0.755 (green --), 0.730 (low pink, low red), 0.720 (red ...)
Resistance @ 0.790 (blue ...), 0.805 (low blue), 0.815 (red --), 0.820 (upp pink), 0.835 (green ...), 0.845 (lightblue ...)

China Hongx 200209

2009-02-21T17:42:00.002+08:00

After trading sideways since end jan, China Hongxing finally broke the uptrend support (low blue) on 16 feb with volume (16m). The next day (17 feb) saw China Hongxing breaking the 0.180 support (lightblue ...) with even more volume (35.7m).

The last time China Hongxing hit the 0.155 level was back in oct last year. It tested the 0.155 level for 3 days before going on a spectacular surge towards the 0.260 level. I doubt we will see a repeat of such a climb for China Hongxing this time.

For monday :

Support @ 0.153 (mid pink), 0.140 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.171 (upp pink), 0.180 (lightblue ...)

SPC 180209

2009-02-18T22:44:00.002+08:00

SPC forming a double-top?

If SPC doesn't break the 2.74 resistance (red --) or the downtrend resistance (upp red) soon, we could see it re-visiting the 2.57 support (green --).

But if SPC breaks the 2.80 uptrend resistance (upp blue) as well, we could see it testing the 3.00 mark.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 2.67, 2.63 (pink --), 2.61 (low blue), 2.57 (mid red, green --), 2.50 (green ...)Resistance @ 2.72 (upp red), 2.74 (red --), 2.795 (upp blue), 3.01

Wilmar 180209

2009-02-18T22:13:00.003+08:00

Wilmar just about stayed in the uptrend channel (blue) after testing the uptrend support (low blue), before recovering to close above the 2.92 neckline (pink --). Wilmar also came pretty close to testing the 2.80 support (red --).

Wilmar formed a double top on 6 jan and 9 feb. It would be interesting to see if Wilmar can stay above the 2.92 support (pink --) as you can see from the volume chart, the 2.92 support is quite strong. So for Wilmar to open below the 2.92 level but close above it, we could be looking at the beginning of a trend reversal.

For that to happen, Wilmar has to at least stay above the 2.80 support (red --) and continue to trade within the uptrend channel (blue). If this happens, we could see some action later this week or early next, when the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend resistance (upp blue) at the 3.02 neckline (blue --).

However, if Wilmar breaks the 2.80 support (red --), we could see it test at least the 2.73 support (pink ...), which is also where the downtrend support (low red) meets.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 2.92 (pink --), 2.87 (red ...), 2.83 (low blue), 2.80 (red --), 2.75 (low red), 2.73 (pink ...)
Resistance @ 2.98 (upp blue), 3.02 (blue --), 3.07 (upp red, blue ...), 3.11 (green ...)

Yangzijiang 180209

2009-02-18T21:57:00.003+08:00

Have not been charting Yangzijiang for quite some time now. After forming a double-top on 11 dec and 7 jan, Yangzijiang broke the 0.475 neckline (blue --) and tumbled to a low of 0.415 on 3 feb.

Afterwhich, Yangzijiang failed to break the 0.475 neckline before dipping again, almost testing the 0.420 support (green --) today, before closing right on the 0.440 neckline (red ...).

You can see from the chart that the uptrend support (low blue) meets the 1st downtrend support (mid red) at around the 0.425 level. Therefore, the 0.425 level would be a crucial support.

If this support breaks, we could see Yangzijiang heading for the 0.405 support (green ...). Any upside would be limited to the 0.455 resistance (pink ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.430 (red --), 0.427 (mid red, low blue), 0.420 (green --), 0.413 (low red), 0.405 (green ...)
Resistance @ 0.440 (red ...), 0.455 (mid blue, pink ...), 0.460, 0.465 (upp blue), 0.475 (blue --)

Indofood Agri 090209

2009-02-09T20:45:00.002+08:00

After breaking through several resistances last friday, Indofood Agri closed just above the 0.610 support and 2nd uptrend support (mid green). Volume done today was less then half of last friday's.

If Indofood Agri can hold onto the 0.610 support, or better still, stay above the uptrend support (mid green), we could be looking at the 0.650 resistance as the next target.

However, if the 0.610 support breaks, the next support would most likely be at 0.595 (blue --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.615 (mid green), 0.610 (green ...), (blue --), 0.575 (red ...), 0.570 (low green), 0.565 (green --)
Resistance @ 0.620 (blue ...), 0.625 (pink ...), 0.630 (upp red), 0.640, 0.650(upp green)

Cosco 090209

2009-02-09T20:12:00.003+08:00

After breaking the downtrend resistance (upp red) on 4 feb, Cosco went on to break the 0.845 resistance (lightblue ...) 2 days later on 6 feb.

Cosco even opened above the 0.875 resistance (blue --) today, but the uptrend momentum could not be sustained, and it retreated to close just above the 0.845 resistance turned support (lightblue ...). Volume has also been dropping over the last 2 days of trading.

As you can see from the chart, Cosco has quite good volume support at the 0.845 (lightblue ...) and 0.835 (green ...) levels. We could see some profit taking this week, with Cosco trading between the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and the 0.845 and 0.835 supports.

If these 2 supports can hold, we could see Cosco testing the 0.875 resistance (blue --) again soon.

However, if these 2 supports break, we could see Cosco head towards the 0.815 support (red --), or even the 0.790 support (blue ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.845 (lightblue ...), 0.835 (green ...), 0.815 (red --), 0.790 (blue ...), 0.7835 (low pink, low blue), 0.765 (lightblue --)

Resistance @ 0.870 (upp pink), 0.875 (blue --), 0.8935 (upp blue), 0.925

China Hongx 090209

2009-02-09T19:58:00.002+08:00

China Hongxing has been trading sideways between 0.195 (red --) and 0.185 (red ...) for the past 2 weeks.

We could be looking at some action for China Hongxing soon as the downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets with the uptrend support (low blue) at about the 0.185 level (red ...).

If China Hongxing is still unable to break out by then, we could see it testing the 0.180 soon, or even breaking it.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.190 (upp pink, lightblue --), 0.185 (low blue, red ...), 0.180 (lightblue ...)
Resistance @ 0.190 (lightblue --), 0.195 (upp blue, red --), 0.200 (blue --), 0.205 (green --)

Cosco 280109

2009-01-28T20:58:00.002+08:00

Other than testing the 0.765 support (lightblue --) on 23 jan, Cosco has been trading sideways (accumulation?) for the last 2 weeks. It also seems to have difficulty breaking the 0.815 resistance (red --).

We could see some action later this week or early next week, when the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 0.790 neckline (blue ...).

If Cosco does not break out by then, we could see it re-testing the 0.730 support (green ...) at least. If Cosco does break out, we could see it testing the 0.845 resistance (lightblue ...)

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.790 (blue ...), 0.775 (low blue), 0.765 (lightblue --), 0.730 (green ...), 0.715 (low red)
Resistance @ 0.815 (red --), 0.835 (mid blue), 0.845 (upp red, lightblue ...), 0.875 (blue --)

China Hongx 280109

2009-01-28T20:40:00.003+08:00

After trading sideways between 0.190 and 0.180 for the last few days, we saw China Hongxing forming a Gravestone Doji on 23 jan. Usually, a Gravestone Doji indicates a trend reversal, and since the prior trend was down, we could be looking at a small rebound.

Any uptrend could be limited by the uptrend resistance (upp blue) and the 0.200 neckline (blue --), which is also where the downtrend resistance (upp pink) meets. However, the 0.190 barrier (lightblue --) looks to be quite a formidable one.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.185 (red ...), 0.182 (low blue), 0.180 (lightblue ...)
Resistance @ 0.190 (lightblue --), 0.195 (red --), 0.200 (upp blue, blue --), 0.205 (upp pink, green --)

Indofood Agri 190109

2009-01-19T22:26:00.003+08:00

Indofood Agri just about stayed above the 0.565 support (green --) after testing it three times.

As you can see from the chart, the uptrend support (low green) meets the 0.575 neckline (red ...) sometime this week, so we might see some action soon.

If Indofood Agri breaks the uptrend support (low green), we might see it test the 0.545 support (pink --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.575 (red ...), 0.570 (low green), 0.565 (green --), 0.545 (pink --), 0.525 (low red, red --)
Resistance @ 0.595 (upp green, blue --), 0.605 (upp red), 0.610 (green ...)

Cosco 190109

2009-01-19T21:42:00.001+08:00

Cosco seems to have found temporary support at the 0.790 level (blue ...), trading between this support and the 0.845 resistance (lightblue ...). Cosco also tested the 0.845 resistance thrice without any success in breaking it.

We could continue to see Cosco trading sideways between the 0.790 support and 0.845 resistance for the time being.

If the 0.790 support breaks, we could see Cosco testing the 0.765 support (lightblue --), which is also where the downtrend resistance (mid red) meets the uptrend support (low blue). If the 0.765 support breaks, next support looks to be at 0.730 (green ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.825 (mid blue), 0.815 (red --), 0.790 (blue ...), 0.785 (mid red), 0.765 (low blue, lightblue --)
Resistance @ 0.845 (lightblue ...), 0.875 (upp blue, blue --), 0.900

China Hongx 190109

2009-01-19T21:26:00.001+08:00

China Hongxing continues to trade within the downtrend channel (pink). Although China Hongxing tested the 0.200 resistance (blue --) and uptrend resistance (mid blue), there wasn't enough buying momentum and it closed on the 0.190 support (lightblue --) for the third time. Volume done was only about 20% of yesterday's.

If China Hongxing can maintain trading within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see it trade sideways between the 0.190 support (lightblue --) and 0.200 resistance (blue --) for the time being.

However, if the 0.190 support breaks, we could see China Hongxing test the 0.180 support (lightblue ...).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.190 (lightblue --), 0.185 (low pink, red ...), 0.180 (lightblue ...), 0.175
Resistance @ 0.192 (low blue), 0.195 (red --), 0.200 (mid blue, blue --), 0.205 (green --)

Olam 130109

2009-01-13T21:04:00.002+08:00

Olam was one of the rare few that was positive today. After opening below the 2 support trendlines (low blue, low red) and 1.25 support (green --), it even went on to test the 1.30 resistance (lightblue ...).

If Olam can stay within the uptrend channel (blue), we could see it attempt to break the 1.30 resistance soon.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.26 (low blue), 1.25 (green --), 1.24 (low red), 1.22 (pink --), 1.17 (pink ...)
Resistance @ 1.30 (lightblue ...), 1.36 (lightblue --), 1.38 (upp blue), 1.40 (green ...)

Noble Group 130109

2009-01-13T20:11:00.002+08:00

Noble Group today broke the 1.08 support (pink --), downtrend support (mid red), the 1.04 support (green ...), and closed right on the 1.00 support (blue ...). Selling downs outnumbered buying ups almost 2:1.

If you look at the chart, the warning sign for a trend reversal showed up yesterday in the form of a Doji, and after Noble Group failed to clear yesterday's opening/closing price of 1.11 today, we saw it breaking down with volume.

We could be looking at Noble Group testing the 0.935 support (red --) if the 1.00 psychological support (blue ...) is broken. If the 0.935 support breaks as well, we could be looking at 0.860 (pink ...) as the next support.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.00 (blue ...), 0.965 (green --), 0.950 (low red), 0.935 (red --), 0.900, 0.860 (pink ...)
Resistnace @ 1.04 (green ...), 1.05 (mid red), 1.08 (low blue, pink --), 1.11, 1.14

Indofood Agri 130109

2009-01-13T19:46:00.002+08:00

Indofood Agri broke quite a few supports today with about 3 times the volume compared to yesterday. The selling down volume was double that of buying up. Indofood Agri closed right on the 0.575 support (red ...).

If Indofood Agri breaks the 0.575 support, we could see it weaken further, probably to the 0.550 level, where the uptrend support (low green) meets the downtrend support (low red).

Any upside would probably be limited to the 0.595 resistance (blue --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.575 (upp green, red ...), 0.565 (green --), 0.550 (low green, low red), 0.545 (pink --), 0.525 (red --), 0.505 (blue ...)

Resistance @ 0.595 (low blue, blue --), 0.610 (green ...), 0.625 (upp blue, pink ...), 0.635 (upp red)

Cosco 130109

2009-01-13T19:33:00.002+08:00

The 0.790 support (blue ...) seems to be holding quite well for Cosco for the time being. However, Cosco closed below the 0.815 neckline (red --). And as you can see from the chart, this neckline can prove hard to overcome as quite a lot of people are trapped (based on the volume distribution bar).

So, if Cosco doesn't break the 0.815 neckline soon, we could see it softening further, at least to the 0.765 support (lightblue --), which is also where the downtrend resistance (mid red) meets the uptrend support (low blue).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.790 (blue ...), 0.765 (lightblue --), 0.750 (low blue), 0.735 (low red), 0.730 (green ...)
Resistance @ 0.815 (red --), 0.845 (mid red, lightblue ...), 0.860 (upp blue), 0.875 (blue --)

China Hongx 130109

2009-01-13T19:22:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 0.205 support (green --) yesterday, China Hongxing continues to trade within the downtrend channel (pink), and also broke the 0.200 support (blue --) today, closing on the 0.195 support (red --).

As you can see from the chart, we could see China Hongxing hitting the 0.190 support (lightblue --), which is also where the downtrend support (low pink) meets the uptrend support (low blue).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.192 (low pink), 0.190 (low blue, lightblue --), 0.185 (red ...), 0.180 (lightblue ...)
Resistance @ 0.198 (mid blue), 0.200 (blue --), 0.205 (green --), 0.208 (upp blue), 0.210 (blue ...)

Noble Group 070109

2009-01-07T22:30:00.004+08:00

A quick analysis on Noble Group.

Broke 1.08 resistance (pink --) on 5 jan with volume and tested the 1.18 neckline (blue --).

the 1.25 neckline (red ...) looks resilient. However, if Noble Group manages to break that, we could see it testing the 1.33 resistance (pink ...).

Don't forget that Noble Group is one of the most volatile counters.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.18 (blue --), 1.15 (mid blue, mid red), 1.08 (low red, pink --), 1.04 (low blue, green ...)
Resistance @ 1.25 (upp red, red ...), 1.28 (upp blue), 1.33 (pink ...)

Indofood Agri 070109

2009-01-07T22:13:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 0.575 resistance (red ...) on 5 jan, Indofood Agri tested the 0.640 resistance (green --) 3 times. However, Indofood Agri couldn't break it convincingly and came close to testing the 0.610 support (green ...) today.

We could see the 0.660 level (upp red cuting upp blue) being the resistance for Indofood Agri for the time being. If Indofood Agri manages to break that resistance, we could see it testing the 0.715 - 0.720 level, which is the low from which Indofood Agri broke out from on 19 sep.

However, if Indofood Agri breaks the 0.610 support, we could see it revisiting the 0.575 support (red ...)

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.610 (green ...), 0.605 (mid blue), 0.595 (blue --), 0.575 (red ...), 0.545 (low red, pink --)
Resistance @ 0.640 (green --), 0.655 (pink, upp blue), 0.663 (upp red), 0.715-0.720

Cosco 060109

2009-01-07T00:06:00.002+08:00

Cosco continues to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), almost testing the 0.930 support (pink --) today. Cosco also broke the 1st uptrend resistance (mid blue) with volume, testing the 1.03 resistance (green ...), before closing right on the 1.00 neckline (red ...).

Where is Cosco heading?

Frankly speaking, it isn't too clear. Volume done today peaked at 62m over the last 5 days of trading, with no one particular price level having exceptionally large volume done. What I can see from the chart is that if Cosco manages to break the 1.00 neckline (red ...) convincingly, we could see it heading at least to the 1.10 neckline (lightblue --).

However, if Cosco fails to break the 1.00 neckline this week, we could see it retracing back at least to the 0.950 level, where the uptrend support (low blue) meets the downtrend resistance (upp red), or back to the 0.930 support (pink --). And if the 0.930 support breaks, it'll be back to the 0.870 support (blue --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.00 (mid blue, red ...), 0.975 (upp red, green --), 0.950, 0.930 (low blue, pink --), 0.870 (blue --)
Resistance @ 1.00 (mid blue, red ...), 1.03 (green ...), 1.06, 1.10 (lightblue --)

China Hongx 060109

2009-01-06T21:17:00.002+08:00

China Hongxing broke the 1st uptrend resistance (mid blue) yesterday with volume, and tested the 0.215 resistance (blue ...). It just about continued its uptrend today by breaking the 2nd uptrend resistance (upp blue).

Volume today was about 62m (3/4 of yesterday's) with about 41.8m done at 0.205. It remains to be seen if this uptrend could be sustained, or would it be just like what happened on 9 dec - where China Hongxing's 'rally' was over in just about 3 days.

Any upside could be limited to the 0.230 resistance (red --), which was the high reached on 10 and 11 dec,before China Hongxing went sliding down to a low of 0.180 on 23 dec. The 0.205 support (green --) looks good for the time being.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.219 (upp blue), 0.217 (upp pink), 0.215 (blue ...), 0.210, 0.205 (green --), 0.200 (blue --), 0.196 (low pink), 0.190 (lightblue --)

Resistance @ 0.225 (pink --), 0.230 (red --), 0.235, 0.245 (pink ...)

Olam 020109

2009-01-04T18:56:00.003+08:00

Since 9 dec, Olam has been trading more or less sideways (other than the surge on 22 dec), between the 1.13 support (red ...) and 1.22 resistance (pink --). However, volume has been very low since christmas.

We could see some action for Olam in the middle of next week when the downtrend resistance (upp red), meets the uptrend support (low blue) at around the 1.18 level.

Any break in the 1.13 support could see Olam revisiting the 1.06 support (blue ...).

For monday :

Support @ 1.19 (upp red), 1.17 (pink ...), 1.16 (low blue), 1.15 (blue --), 1.13 (red ...), 1.09 (red --), 1.08 (low red)

Resistance @ 1.22 (pink --), 1.227 (upp blue), 1.25 (green --), 1.30 (lightblue ...)

Noble Group 020109

2009-01-04T17:22:00.002+08:00

The 1.08 resistance (pink --) for Noble Group seems like a tough nut to crack. Noble Group tested it 5 times in dec but failed to break it. Would we see Noble Group breaking it successfully in 2009?

Noble Group continues to trade within the uptrend channel (blue), with the 0.935 support (red --) looking resilient as Noble Group last tested it before christmas. However, volume continues to be thin so we should be cautious of any upswing.

If Noble Group fails to break the 1.08 resistane (pink --), we could see it first retracing back to the 0.995 support (blue ...). Or we could continue to see Noble Group trade sideways between the 1.08 resistance and 1.04 support (green ...).

We could see some action for Noble Group towards the end of next week when the downtrend resistance meets the uptrend support (low blue) at around the 1.035 level.

For monday :

Support @ 1.04 (green ...), 1.00 (low blue), 0.995 (blue ...), 0.972 (low red), 0.965 (green --), 0.935 (red --)
Resistance @ 1.06 (upp red), 1.08 (pink --), 1.09 (upp blue), 1.13/1.14

Indofood Agri 020109

2009-01-04T16:45:00.002+08:00

After dipping to a low of 0.485 before christmas, Indofood Agri recovered its losses and managed to break the 0.525 resistance (red --) on 30 dec. Indofood Agri opened the new year by breaking the 0.545 resistance (pink --) and almost testing the 0.575 resistance (red ...). However, volume hasn't exactly been alot - 17.6m done on 2 jan.

If Indofood Agri fails to break the 0.575 resistance (red ...), we could see it forming a double-top, and the retracement could be back to the 0.490 support (pink ...).

However, if Indofood Agri manages to hold above the 0.545 neckline (pink --), any break in the 0.575 resistance could see Indofood Agri testing the 0.610 resistance (green ...).

For monday :

Support @ 0.560 (mid blue), 0.555 (pink), 0.545 (pink --), 0.525 (red --), 0.515 (low blue), 0.505 (blue ...)
Resistance @ 0.565 (upp red), 0.575 (red ...), 0.590 (upp blue), 0.595 (blue --), 0.610 (green ...)

Cosco 020109

2009-01-02T22:55:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 1.00 resistance (red ...) on 30 dec, Cosco quickly reversed and lost all its gain the next day. Cosco even opened the new year with a break in the 0.930 support (pink --).

If Cosco fails to stay above the 0.930 neckline (pink --), we could see it weakening further, breaking the uptrend support (low blue), and even testing the 0.870 support (blue --).

Another scenario could see Cosco trading sideways between the 0.930 neckline and 0.975 resistance (green --). Any upside would probably be limited to the 0.990 level, where the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend resistance (upp blue).

For monday :

Support @ 0.910 (low blue), 0.870 (blue --), 0.845 (lightblue ...), 0.835 (low red), 0.815 (red --)
Resistance @ 0.930 (pink --), 0.975 (green --), 0.980 upp blue), 1.00 (upp red, red ...)

China Hongx 020109

2009-01-02T22:36:00.003+08:00

China Hongxing started off the new year right on the 0.185 support (red ...) before breaking the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and closing on the 0.200 resistance (blue --).

However, I wouldn't place too much hope of a break out as volume done was still relatively low - 15.4m done with about half done at 0.195.

As you can see from the chart, ,the 0.185 support (red ...) looks quite good, although volume has been quite low for the past week.

We could see China Hongxing trading sideways between the 0.200 resistance and 0.185 support as it tries to build a base.

For monday :

Support @ 0.190 (upp pink, lightblue --), 0.185 (red ...), 0.180 (lightblue ...), 0.175
Resistance @ 0.200 (blue --), 0.203 (upp blue), 0.205 (green --), 0.210

Indofood Agri 231208

2008-12-23T21:09:00.002+08:00

Another counter that failed to break out of its double-bottom neckline. Indofood Agri traded more or less sideways after failing to break the 0.575 neckline (red ...) on 11 dec. Indofood Agri also finally broke the 0.505 support (blue ...) and uptrend support (low blue), and closed right on the 0.490 support (pink ...).

If Indofood Agri fails to hold onto its 0.490 support, we could see it weaken further to test the 0.470 support (green --). And if that support also breaks, we could see Indofood Agri retreating all the way to the 0.445 support (blue --).

Any rebound would be limited to the 0.525 resistance (red --) as we can see from the chart that the short-term (upp red) and long term (upp pink) downtrend resistances meet there.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.490 (upp pink, pink ...), 0.470 (green --), 0.460 (green ...), 0.450 (low red), 0.445 (blue --), 0.420 (pink --)

Resistance @ 0.505 (upp red, blue ...), 0.515 (low blue), 0.525 (red --), 0.535 (upp blue), 0.545

Cosco 231208

2008-12-23T20:37:00.002+08:00

After hitting a high of 1.17 on 11 dec, Cosco has now retreated to the peak (pink --) of the double-bottom, which was where it broke out from on 10 dec. Along the way down, Cosco did not even come near to testing the downtrend resistance (upp red) even once.

This week could be crucial for Cosco as it would need to hold onto the 0.930 support (pink --) for any chance of a rebound. However, even if there is a rebound, Cosco would face lots of resistance from 0.980 to 1.00.

If the 0.930 breaks, which I think would be likely, we could see Cosco retreating to the 0.870 support (blue --). Further weakening could even see Cosco retreating all the way to the 0.800 level, which is where the 2 downtrend support (low red, low pink) meet.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.930 (pink --), 0.910, 0.870 (blue --), 0.860 (low pink), 0.845 (lightblue ...), 0.835 (low red), 0.815 (red --)

Resistance @ 0.950 (low blue), 0.990 (upp pink), 1.00 (upp blue, red ...), 1.02 (upp red)

China Hongx 231208

2008-12-23T20:06:00.003+08:00

China Hongxing went downhill after failing to break the 0.230 neckline (red --) on 11 dec, even forming a Gravestone Doji on 15 dec, which usually meant a reversal in an uptrend.

After the Gravestone Doji, China Hongxing went on to break several supports, trading within the long term (red) and short term (pink) downtrend channels. China Hongxing also tested the 0.180 support (lightblue ...), which coincided with the downtrend support (low pink).

Moreover, today's breakdown was accompanied with a surge in volume compared to the past few days. Almost 42m was done at the 0.185 level, with 16m selldowns and 26m buy ups.

Since nov, China Hongxing has now tested the 0.180 support twice - 26 nov and 2 dec. We could see some action for China Hongxing this week as the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at the 0.185 level.

If the 0.180 support (lightblue ...) holds, we could see China Hongxing testing the 0.200 resistance (blue --). However, if the 0.180 breaks (for the third time), we could see China Hongxing re-testing the 0.160 level.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.188 (low blue), 0.185 (red ...), 0.180 (lightblue ...), 0.175 (low pink), 0.170, 0.165
Resistance @ 0.190 (upp red, lightblue --), 0.195, 0.200 (blue --), 0.202 (upp pink), 0.205 (upp blue, green --)

Cosco 111208

2008-12-11T20:37:00.002+08:00

After breaking the 1.10 resistance (lightblue --) yesterday, Cosco came very to testing the 1.18 resistance (green --) today. Volume done today was almost the same as yesterday, with about 10m done at 1.09 and 8.7m done at 1.10.

As you can see from the chart, the 2 downtrend resistances meet the uptrend resistance (upp blue) at around 1.13 - 1.15. We may see some action tomorrow as Cosco could attempt to break the 1.15 level again convincingly, and test the 1.18 resistance.

If that fais, we could see Cosco retreating to the uptrend support (low blue).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 1.10 (lightblue --), 1.02 (low blue), 1.00 (red ...), 0.970 (low red), 0.930 (pink --)
Resistance @ 1.12 (upp blue), 1.14 (upp pink), 1.15 (upp red), 1.18 (green --)

Semb Marine Research Report

2008-12-11T20:33:00.001+08:00

by CIMB-GK (10 Dec)

SEMBCORP Marine has secured a $200 million contract to convert a VLCC to a FPSO for Modec, a Japanese EPCI (engineering, procurement, construction and installation) player. Delivery is planned for Q1 2011.

We believe that the outlook for the production segment is more positive than rig-building. Oil exploration and discoveries have accelerated in the past few years, driven by an unprecedented spike in oil prices. Therefore, we believe that the demand for production-related equipment remains to support the recent oil discoveries.

Upstream reported that SMOE, SembMarine's subsidiary, together with an Italian contractor Saipem, is bidding for a US$600 million EPCI processing platform contract from Premier Oil's Gajah Baru gas project in West Natuna Sea, Indonesia. The contract is expected to be finalised by end-2008.

We believe that the production segment in the offshore & marine value chain would be less susceptible to credit volatility as FPSOs and offshore platforms are typically owned and operated by oil companies with stronger financial track records.

No change to our forecasts as this win is within our order-book assumptions. Total order book is now about $10 billion. SembMarine remains our top pick in the offshore & marine sector for its strong balance sheet (net cash) and attractive dividend yields. The stock is cheap at its historical low of 6x CY10 PE. Stronger-than-expected order wins could provide stock upside.

-Research Report by CIMB-GK (10 Dec)

Noble Group 091208

2008-12-09T20:36:00.002+08:00

Noble Group broke the downtrend resistance (upp pink) and tested the 1.01 resistance (blue --) for the 2nd time today. Volume done today was more or less about the same as the last few weeks. Most trades were done at 1.00 with about 70% buying up.

If Noble Group manages to stay above the 0.965 support (green --), we could see it attempt to break the 1.01 resistance (blue --) again this week.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.995 (blue ...), 0.965 (green --), 0.955, 0.935 (low red, upp pink, red --), 0.910 (pink ...)
Resistance @ 1.01 (blue --), 1.025 (upp blue), 1.04 (green ...), 1.045 (mid red), 1.08 (pink --)

Indofood Agri 091208

2008-12-09T19:55:00.002+08:00

Indofood Agri did not have the chance to test the 0.470 resistance (green --) today. That's because it gapped up on opening and never looked back, testing the 0.505 resistance (blue ...) before closing above the 0.490 support (pink ...) and uptrend support (mid blue).

Volume done today was also quite high, almost the same level as 1 dec. Most of it was done at 0.495, with buying up and selling down volumes almost equal.

As there still quite a few more necklines to break, it is still early to say if Indofood Agri has completed the double bottom formation. Two immediate necklines lie in wait at 0.525 (red --) and 0.540 (pink --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.490 (pink ...), 0.485 (upp pink, mid blue), 0.470 (green --), 0.460 (low blue, green ...), 0.445 (blue --), 0.430 (red ...)

Resistance @ 0.495 (upp red), 0.505 (blue ...), 0.525 (upp blue, red --), 0.540 (pink --)

Cosco 091208

2008-12-09T19:23:00.002+08:00

Cosco gapped up on opening and broke the long term downtrend resistance (upp pink) and the 0.930 neckline (pink --), which could be the first step to finally completing the double bottom formation.

However, today's formation could also be the 1st part of the Abandoned Baby or Evening Doji Star formations, which are bearish reversal patterns. Therefore, what happens tomorrow will be critical.

Some profit taking is inevitable as today is the 5th day Cosco is up. As long as Cosco stays above the 0.900 level, we could see the formation of the Mat Hold or Rising Three Methods, which are bullish continuation patterns.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.930 (pink --), 0.920 (upp blue, mid red), 0.900, 0.870 (blue --), 0.865 (low red), 0.860 (upp pink), 0.845 (lightblue ...)

Resistance @ 0.955 (upp red), 1.00 (red ...)

China Hongx 091208

2008-12-09T19:00:00.002+08:00

We indeed saw some action for China Hongxing as it broke the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) with the highest volume since 18 jun (97m). Not only did China Hongxing broke the 0.215 resistance (blue ...), it also tested the 0.225 resistance (pink --).

The bulk of the volume done was at 0.215, with about 15m selling down and 17.9m buying up. The next highest volume done was at 0.205, with about 18.4m selling down and 5.4m buying up.

Although China Hongxing broke the 2 downtrend resistances (upp red, upp pink), it reversed its earlier gains to close right on its opening price, thus forming a Gravestone Doji. As China Hongxing was on the uptrend for the last few days, the formation of a Gravestone Doji may not be a good sign for those longists.

If China Hongxing breaks the 0.205 support (mid blue, green --), we could see it re-testing the 0.190 support (lightblue --). If this support holds, we could see China Hongxing trading between the upp uptrend channel.

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.205 (mid blue, green --), 0.200 (blue --), 0.195, 0.190 (upp pink, lightblue --), 0.185 (upp red, red ...)

Resistance @ 0.215 (blue ...), 0.225 (pink --), 0.227 (upp blue), 0.230 (red --), 0.245 (pink ...)

Straits Asia 051208

2008-12-08T20:44:00.001+08:00

Straits Asia broke the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) last fri. It also tested the short-term downtrend resistance (upp pink), before closing the week right on the 0.840 neckline (pink ...). Although it was a breakout, the volume done on fri (38.6m) was just slightly more than half of thurs (50.3m), and fri was the third day Straits Asia was up.

You can see from the chart that the long term downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (mid blue) at the 0.795 support (green --). There's also another volume resistance at the 0.850 level (pink --) which Straits Asia tested last fri but couldn't break. It is also from this level (0.850) that Straits Asia tumbled on 12 nov.

If Straits Asia fail to break the 0.850 resistance this week, we could see it retreating to the 0.795 support.

However, if Straits Asia breaks the 0.850 resistance, we might see it flying at least to the 0.900 level, or even test the 0.920 neckline (green ...)

For tuesday :

Support @ 0.835 (pink ...), 0.795 (upp red, mid blue, green --), 0.740 (blue --), 0.725 (low blue), 0.710 (red --)
Resistance @ 0.850 (mid pink, pink --), 0.865 (upp blue), 0.920 (green ...), 0.950 (upp pink), 0.980 (red ...)

Indofood Agri 051208

2008-12-08T15:30:00.002+08:00

Although Indofood Agri managed to close above yesterday's closing price of 0.445, it also tested the uptrend support (low blue), and nearly tested the 0.430 support (red...). Volume down was less than half of yesterday's too.

As you can see from the chart, the downtrend resistance (upp red) meets the uptrend support (low blue) at 0.455, which incidentally was where Indofood Agri closed on 17 nov before tumbling to a low of 0.385 on 20 and 21 nov.

If Indofood Agri doesn't break the 0.455 level soon, we could see history repeating itself, with Indofood Agri first testing the 0.430 support (red ...).

Any break above the 0.455 level could see Indofood Agri testing the 0.470 resistance (green --) for the fourth time.

Watch the volume too.

For tuesday :

Support @ 0.455 (upp red, low blue), 0.445 (blue --), 0.430 (pink, red ...), 0.420 (pink --), 0.413 (low red), 0.410 (red --)
Resistance @ 0.455 (upp red, low blue), 0460 (green ...), 0.470 (green --), 0.490 (upp blue, pink ...)

Cosco 051208

2008-12-08T15:16:00.002+08:00

I've updated the long term downtrend channel (pink). You can see from the chart that 2 trendlines (upp pink, upp blue) meet at the 0.870 neckline (blue --), and Cosco closed right on this neckline today. Volume done was also about a third of yesterday's. Profit taking?

The first neckline for Cosco at 0.930 (pink --) has yet to be tested so a double bottome formation cannot be confirmed yet. A successful break of this neckline could see Cosco heading for the 1.20 -1.30 level.

If Cosco can stay above the 0.870 support on tuesday, there's a good chance we might see it test the 0.930 resistance. However, if that support breaks, we could see Cosco pulling back to the next support at 0.845 (lightblue ...).

For tuesday :

Support @ 0.870 (upp pink, upp blue, blue --), 0.845 (lightblue ...), 0.815 (red --), 0.800 (mid blue), 0.795 (green ...)
Resistance @ 0.870 (upp pink, upp blue, blue --), 0.910, 0.930 (pink --), 1.00 (red ...)

China Hongx 051208

2008-12-08T14:52:00.002+08:00

China Hongxing closed the week right on the long term downtrend resistance (upp red), and volume was about half of the last 2 days. Also, the 0.190 support (lightblue --) seems to be holding up quite well.

If China Hongxing can hold onto its 0.190 support, there's a good chance we might see some action next week as the long term downtrend (upp red) meets the 0.190 support (lightblue --).

Any break in the 0.195 resistance might see China Hongxing testing the 0.215 resistance (blue ...).

Any break in the 0.190 support might see China Hongxing re-visiting the 0.180 support (lightblue ...).

For tuesday :

Support @ 0.190 (upp red, lightblue --), 0.185 (red ...), 0.180 (lightblue --), 0.178 (low blue), 0.175 (low pink)
Resistance @ 0.195 (upp pink), 0.200 (blue --), 0.205 (upp blue), 0.215 (blue ...)

Until Wall St capitulates, best to stay nimble

2008-12-07T20:26:00.001+08:00

Weekly Report by R SIVANITHY (7 Dec)

SINGAPORE - Last week's column advised investors to be careful buying into what was most probably yet another bear trap. As it turned out, the Straits Times Index, which clearly enjoys support from the thinly-traded Jardine group, gave up the 70 points it had gained the previous week through month-end window-dressing when it lost 73 last week.

Jardine's inclusion aside, the advice this week cannot be much different, notwithstanding Friday's rise on Wall Street which was founded on the perverse logic that because the November jobs report was so awful, the automakers will surely have to be bailed out by a government who cannot risk making things worse by not doing anything.

In other words, as long as the economic data is terrible, this increases the chances of a government bailout and so the market must go up. This means that the worse the economic figures the better the market will react - a warped way of thinking indicative of a desperately sinking Wall Street seeking any straw to clutch to stay afloat but knowing at the back of its mind that it is only delaying the inevitable.

There is a growing realisation among investors that the downturn may be worse and more prolonged than previously thought and that markets have not yet displayed the necessary capitulation that could signal a trough.

This is a point made several times before in this column but bears repeating - the US market is still too overly optimistic and overvalued relative to its economic and earnings prospects, even with massive government help.

Investors - those with pockets deep enough to do any meaningful buying during these difficult times - would do well to take note of this.

In its Asia Insights titled 'Cautious but looking for ideas', HSBC said it spent two weeks recently visiting more than 60 investment institutions in eight cities, a trip that gave it a reasonably good feel for the range of opinions among fund managers, most of whom were bearish.

'But, while few investors are convinced that Asian markets have definitely bottomed, we found less ultra-bearishness than we expected. Most investors feel that the monetary and fiscal stimulus dealt out by national authorities everywhere will cause growth to pick up in H2 2009, and that the bail-out of Citigroup means that all the large troubled US banks have now been rescued.'

'On China, there is a particularly widespread consensus that growth will be strong again by the second half of next year. Consequently, we found many investors keen to discuss where to invest next year: deep value stocks versus blue-chips, China or Korea, deep cyclicals or financials, how about Thailand, is it too early for small caps?

We have some sympathy with these views but, since sentiment has not yet reached capitulation (or indifference) point, we suspect that the worst may not be over.'

To this we'd like to add that there is growing irrational optimism that China will come good after all its problems in 2008 and that this turnaround will fuel Asian growth and cause Asian economies to decouple from the US.

Like the perverse Wall St logic earlier, this is a highly dubious line of reasoning from a battered investment community desperately seeking to redeem itself after a year of failure by rehashing an old, disproven theme that should by now have outlived its usefulness.

Not all is gloom however and there is some hope later next year - in its Dec 4 Asian Market Strategy for example, Credit Suisse said it believes Asian markets have already priced in a long and deep recession and that its Six Factor Valuation Indicator shows Asian markets to be 50 per cent undervalued.

However, it called an 'underweight' on Singapore saying 'driven by expected declines in consumer and corporate spending, domestic demand which has held up well is expected to weaken going into 2009. Credit Suisse said banks were its biggest underweight while it is overweight telcos and transport.

In the meantime, investors with poor timing skills should dismiss urgings to buy now because markets are 'oversold' since the word had no precise meaning in the investment vocabulary and is not a viable basis on which to make an investment. Best to wait until Wall St capitulates before doing anything - and that could be weeks or months away yet.

-Weekly Report by R SIVANITHY (7 Dec)

Next week | Dec 8 -12, 2008

2008-12-07T20:20:00.000+08:00

US DATA

Dec 9
Oct pending home sales

Dec 10
Oct wholesale inventories
Crude inventories
Nov treasury budget

Dec 11
Oct trade balance
Nov export/import prices ex-ag
Initial job claims

Dec 12
Nov core PPI
Nov retail sales
Oct business inventories

SINGAPORE DATA

Dec 9
Nov international reserves

EVENTS

Dec 8
Brussels - ECB president
Jean-Claude Trichet testifies before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (1400 GMT)

Shocking job numbers rattle Wall St

2008-12-07T01:01:00.002+08:00

by ANDREW MARKS (6 Dec)

Sympathetic noises from Congress on rescue for Detroit Three carmakers temper fears

FOR the whole of this week, Wall Street had been trying hard to hold on to the little optimism eked out from the most recent wave of government capital injections.

That effort seemingly came to an abrupt end yesterday.

In the face of a shockingly bad November jobs report, the mood of stockmarket investors nosedived as news that the US economy shed 533,000 jobs, the worst single month since 1974, filtered through.

On average, forecasts had expected a loss of about 400,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 per cent from 6.5 per cent in October. The government added that it was revising its jobs data for September and October, loading on 199,000 more layoffs than previously thought. That brings the total reduction in US non-farm payrolls for the last three months to 1.256 million, with almost two million shed in the year so far.

Investors reacted to the data in predictable fashion. Stocks slid shortly after the opening bell, with the Dow falling 80 points, or one per cent, in the first minutes of trading. That widened to a loss of 220 points by 11.30 in the morning as the blue chip index hit 8,155.

But there is a glimmer of hope. Wall Street seemed encouraged by remarks at the opening to yesterday's Congressional hearings for a bailout for the Big Three carmakers.

Barney Frank, chairman of the House financial services committee, said: 'In the midst of the worst economic situation since the Great Depression, letting the Big Three fail is simply unacceptable. Any effort to resist a rescue of the auto industry in the face of such a massive jobs crisis must fall by the wayside,' he said.

On Thursday afternoon, stocks took a hit in the final hour of trading, as investors pulled money off the table before yesterday's jobs report, not wanting to risk losing all their profits of recent days.

Economist Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors, had anticipated a record layoff number following the Wednesday release of the Institute for Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing index November numbers, which recorded it's largest monthly decline since the survey was begun in 1997.

'This is obviously a bad number, showing how hard a hit the economy is taking. But you have to remember this is a lagging indicator and it appears that businesses are adjusting extremely rapidly to the real time information about the problems.

That may be compressing the time it takes to downsize when a recession hits. As a consequence, the data is deteriorating more sharply than we are used to seeing,' he said.

As shocking as the number is, Mr Naroff thinks that the economy could also see an end to the huge losses in jobs and demand sooner than would typically be the case in a severe recession.

'It's like being hit by a hurricane. We have to ride out the intense storm, but the silver lining is we might get good weather sooner than history would indicate,' he said.

It will probably be weeks, if not months before the stock market will agree with Mr Naroff's positive analysis of the collapse in all the data.

Said Joe Battipaglia, investment strategist at Ryan, Beck, 'These awful numbers we're getting could be taken as indicating that the bottom is coming, but at this point, they could also be taken as a sign that we're in even worse shape than we believed.'

'That means stock market sentiment will continue to be highly volatile and subject to change with every new piece of significant data,' he said.

The severity of the jobs report has also raised expectations on Wall Street that Congress and the Treasury will keep GM and Chrysler in business while the debate over how to restructure the car industry gets aired.

'Everybody knows now that the automakers will get their loan - there's no choice, and this report also raises the certainty we'll get a huge stimulus programme, probably north of US$500 billion, once Mr Obama is inaugurated in January,' said Jim Awad, managing director of Zephyr Capital Management.

-Research Report by ANDREW MARKS (6 Dec)

Week when selling holds sway

2008-12-06T20:23:00.001+08:00

by R SIVANITHY (6 Dec)

SHOCKING news that the US economy has been in a recession - defined as a general contraction in economic activity rather than two consecutive quarters of declines - for a year now, the failure of US carmakers to convince the government to bail them out and a sharp drop in trading volume were three of the main features of the past week.

The fourth was the 'buy the index in the morning, and sell in the afternoon' trading pattern that was evident in the final three days of the week, each time because of expectations that Wall Street would tank later that evening.

As it turned out, though, the selling outweighed the buying, insofar as the STI was concerned, the benchmark ending the week 15.49 points higher yesterday but losing 73 points or 4.2 per cent over the five days to 1,659.17.

This wiped out the 70 points gained over the previous week, which was mostly likely through month-end window-dressing.

Blue chips in play throughout this week included SingTel following an Investor Day, the banks and the thinly traded Jardine group. In yesterday's session, for example, Jardine Matheson's US$0.44 rise to US$16.24 came with just 258,000 shares traded but added 2.2 points to the STI.

Property stocks had a poor five days, the FT Real Estate Index losing almost 6 per cent. Financials were not far behind with the FT Financials Index dropping about 5 per cent.

Other than commodities, the main sector in play was a heavily battered China segment led by an oddly resurgent Cosco Corp that gained 16 cents or 23 per cent over the week to 87 cents despite a slew of 'sell' calls following a large order cancellation.

The bulk of daily volume was generated by brokers and house traders, with general public participation virtually zero. Yesterday's turnover of 867 million units worth $747 million was roughly in line with the week's average and low enough to suggest that any investor with money to invest has probably already gone on holiday.

More sobering outlook reports were issued over the week, among them Goldman Sachs' (GS) 'Many Rivers to Cross' and UBS Investment Research's (UBSIR) 'Navigating a Recession'.

The former said risks to growth are to the downside, notwithstanding countervailing policy actions, and this will increase risks to earnings. 'We expect a global recession in 2009 . . . we feel there are sufficient reasons to examine the possibility that this downturn will be more prolonged than currently expected.

These include (a) the negative momentum of consensus forecasts, (b) the size of the debt burden in the US and (c) the deleveraging experiences of Japan and Sweden in the 1990s,' said GS.

UBSIR said it thinks a rally of 15-20 per cent in Q1 '09 is possible purely because markets are oversold but its central thesis is for a 'grim economic outlook and high risk aversion'.

It said the market has not priced in the success of the two integrated resorts but, on the downside, investors should watch the job market - where UBSIR expects 30,000 jobs to be lost during the year.

On a more positive note, the broker said it has a fair value of 2,100 for the STI at year-end.

-Research Report by R SIVANITHY (6 Dec)

Olam 041208

2008-12-04T21:30:00.002+08:00

After trading sideways for more than the last 2 weeks, we finally saw some action today. Olam broke the long term downtrend resistance (now turned support - low red). Volume done today was also the most since 30 may 2008 (35.1m).

After breaking the 0.960 neckline (green ...), Olam went on to test the 1.00 resistance (blue --), before closing just above the 0.960 neckline. If Olam manages to continue to trade above the 0.960 neckline, we could see it test the 1.00 resistance very soon.

However, if Olam breaks the 0.960 support, we could see it revisiting the 0.930 support (green --).

For tomorrow :

Support @ 0.970 (upp grey), 0.960 (green ...), 0.930 (green --), 0.920 (low red), 0.900 (pink --), 0.890 (mid grey)
Resistance @ 1.00 (blue --), 1.05 (mid red), 1.06 (blue ...), 1.09 (red --)